NBA betting trends: Best/worst ATS values, situational spots from 1st half
While the NBA All-Star break isn't actually the campaign's halfway mark, it provides us with enough data points to map out some of the most profitable spots to bet ahead of the "second half" of the regular season and into the postseason.
Here are some of the best and worst values in various spots from before the All-Star break:
Against the spread (overall)
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Best: If you've been following our bets this year, you know how profitable the Grizzlies (40-20) have been across virtually the entire season. Ja Morant and Co. covered a ridiculous 19 of 25 games during a stellar two-month run from late November to mid-January. They also rode an 8-3 ATS run into the All-Star break.
2) Oklahoma City Thunder (35-19-4)
3) Cleveland Cavaliers (34-21-3)
4) Chicago Bulls (35-23-1)
5) Toronto Raptors (33-23-1)
Worst: It's been a tumultuous run for the Nets (22-36-1), who were the title favorites until a few weeks ago despite clinging to the Eastern Conference's No. 8 seed. Brooklyn's stars have been scarcely available this season, including star scorer Kevin Durant, whose team is 9-14 ATS without him.
T-2) Houston Rockets (23-34-1)
T-2) Washington Wizards (23-34-1)
4) Portland Trail Blazers (25-34)
T-5) Milwaukee Bucks (26-34)
T-5) Orlando Magic (26-34)
ATS at home
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Best: It's been an up-and-down season for the Bulls (21-10), who started hot before hitting a brutal stretch of injuries and protocols. Still, Chicago has been a consistent bet at home, where this team covered eight of 10 heading into the break.
2) Cleveland Cavaliers (17-9-1)
3) Oklahoma City Thunder (15-9-4)
4) Memphis Grizzlies (18-12)
5) Golden State Warriors (17-13-2)
Worst: Surprise, surprise: the Nets (6-21-1) find themselves on another "worst" list thanks to one of their key star's availability. Brooklyn has been respectable on the road (16-15), but Kyrie Irving's absence for every home contest has hindered the Nets' upside at Barclays Center.
2) Orlando Magic (7-19)
3) Houston Rockets (8-18)
4) Milwaukee Bucks (11-20)
5) Philadelphia 76ers (11-18)
ATS on the road
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Best: The Grizzlies' (22-8) success on the road has partly fueled their unexpected rise in the West. Memphis is outscoring teams by 2.2 points per 100 possessions in away games - sixth-best in the NBA - and has won 10 of its 30 road contests by double digits, including four of five before the break.
2) Oklahoma City Thunder (20-10)
T-3) Phoenix Suns (17-10)
T-3) Toronto Raptors (17-10-1)
5) Philadelphia 76ers (18-11)
Worst: The Wizards (9-18-1) haven't been particularly good anywhere this season, but they've especially struggled on the road, where they've dropped five of their last seven ATS. Washington has nearly as many double-digit losses (10) as outright wins (12) away from home.
2) Atlanta Hawks (10-18)
3) Portland Trail Blazers (10-17)
4) Sacramento Kings (11-17)
5) Detroit Pistons (13-17)
ATS as a favorite
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Best: The Bulls (26-12-1) weren't expected to be very good this season despite adding DeMar DeRozan and Lonzo Ball, among others, in the offseason, and it seems the market refuses to adjust. Chicago won eight of its first 10 games ATS as a favorite - which is to be expected from a surprise contender - but it's covered eight of its last nine chalk spots, too.
T-2) Detroit Pistons (2-1)
T-2) Orlando Magic (2-1)
4) Memphis Grizzlies (22-12)
5) Toronto Raptors (18-11)
Worst: Much like the Bulls, the Wizards (8-16) snuck up on opposing teams early in the year behind a surprisingly adept defense. The key difference? Washington's success didn't last. Its defense fell apart as the season progressed, leading to its current 1-9 ATS run when laying points.
2) Brooklyn Nets (13-26-1)
3) Indiana Pacers (9-15-1)
4) Los Angeles Lakers (14-22)
5) Denver Nuggets (14-19)
ATS as an underdog
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Best: Never doubt the resolve of the Heat (13-5), who are a dangerous squad even when their best players are sidelined. That's been the case for much of the season, but it hasn't mattered for Miami, which owns 11 outright wins as a 'dog. Also, shoutout to the Thunder, who possess an NBA-best 34 ATS wins - with 17 outright victories - when catching points.
2) Phoenix Suns (4-2)
3) Cleveland Cavaliers (19-10-1)
4) Oklahoma City (34-18-4)
5) Memphis Grizzlies (15-8)
Worst: Entering this campaign, the Bucks (3-9) had been underdogs just nine times in the previous two regular seasons combined. They've been in that spot 12 times already this season, with many of those games coming with Giannis Antetokounmpo sidelined. It turns out that Milwaukee, sans its two-time MVP, isn't a team worth betting.
2) Atlanta Hawks (8-15)
T-3) Houston Rockets (20-32-1)
T-3) New York Knicks (10-16)
5) Utah Jazz (2-3-1)
ATS on zero days' rest
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Best: Whether it's because of depth, youth, or sheer luck, the Raptors (9-2) have sizzled on the second night of a back-to-back, winning eight of those nine games outright with three double-digit victories. Toronto is one of just two teams (Celtics) to outscore opponents by at least 5.0 points per game on zero days' rest.
2) Indiana Pacers (7-3)
3) Memphis Grizzlies (7-4)
T-4) New York Knicks (5-3)
T-4) Los Angeles Lakers (5-3)
Worst: It should come as no surprise the Nets (1-8-1) struggle the most on zero days' rest, considering their stars rarely play on the second night of a back-to-back. That thrusts their shoddy bench into action, which is one of the biggest weaknesses of this top-heavy Brooklyn squad.
2) Houston Rockets (1-7-1)
T-3) Charlotte Hornets (3-8)
T-3) Milwaukee Bucks (3-8)
5) Minnesota Timberwolves (3-6)
Over/under
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Over: The Timberwolves (36-23) started the year with surprising gains on defense, but it's their explosive offense that has fueled their profitable mark to the over. Minnesota owns the NBA's best offensive rating (118) since Jan. 5 - when Karl-Anthony Towns and D'Angelo Russell returned to action - and the ninth-best (111.5) across the entire season.
2) Houston Rockets (34-23-1)
3) Miami Heat (35-24)
4) Los Angeles Lakers (33-25)
T-5) Memphis Grizzlies (32-25-3)
T-5) Chicago Bulls (32-25-2)
Under: The Mavericks (37-20-2) haven't exactly flourished offensively in Jason Kidd's first year at the helm. Yet their defense has cranked up the intensity, allowing the NBA's second-fewest points per 100 possessions (105.0) since Dec. 29 amid an 18-8 run to the under.
2) Cleveland Cavaliers (35-22-1)
T-3) Golden State Warriors (24-33-2)
T-3) Philadelphia 76ers (24-33-1)
T-5) Boston Celtics (25-34-1)
T-5) New Orleans Pelicans (25-34)
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].