NBA playoff preview: 1 thing to watch in every West 1st-round series

As we're reminded every year, the playoffs are all about matchups. In a Western Conference that's bunched up beyond the No. 1 seed, the tactical nuances of those matchups will determine how the bracket shakes out.

With that, here's one crucial battleground that will define each of the West's four first-round matchups:

Suns (1) vs. Pelicans (8)

How will the Pelicans defend the Suns in pick-and-roll?

The Pelicans have been better defensively this season than most expected, ranking better on that side of the ball than they did on offense. It might surprise some to learn that Jonas Valanciunas was a huge part of that overachieving defense, with New Orleans surrendering 5.7 fewer points per 100 non-garbage-time possessions with him on the floor, per Cleaning the Glass. That's mainly because the team allowed a much lower rate of shots at the rim during his minutes.

That defensive impact is going to be put to the test against a Suns team that doesn't much care about getting to the rim. Valanciunas is a solid defender in his role, but that role is extremely narrow; it's drop or bust, basically. Against Phoenix, dropping might not be tenable as a base coverage. It's an invitation to get torched by Chris Paul and Devin Booker in the mid-range, to say nothing of how vulnerable that scheme can be to the Suns' vaunted Spain actions.

And yet, the Pelicans actually outscored the Suns during the season series with Valanciunas on the floor and got demolished by 23.8 points per 100 with him on the bench. We did see New Orleans play JV up at the level of the screen at various points in those regular-season matchups with mixed results. With Valanciunas being slow to recover after hedging, it's a lot of pressure to put on the Pelicans back line, especially given how accomplished Paul and Booker are at dissecting rotating defenses after drawing two to the ball. But New Orleans could make it viable by having the likes of Herb Jones, the much-improved Brandon Ingram, and newly minted power forward Jaxson Hayes scrambling and providing secondary rim-protection behind Valanciunas in those scenarios.

Larry Nance Jr. looms as another important figure in this matchup. As he's become an increasingly prominent part of the Pelicans' rotation, we've seen them run out more lineups with Nance at center, including down the stretch of their play-in victory over the Los Angeles Clippers. They lose some rim-protection with that alignment, but they get more versatility in ball-screen coverage with the option to switch or play show-and-recover more effectively.

It will be interesting to see what type of balance the Pelicans strike as they try to slow down one of the best pick-and-roll attacks in the league.

Prediction: Suns in five

Grizzlies (2) vs. Timberwolves (7)

How will Towns fare against the Grizzlies' front line?

The Wolves are coming off an emotional victory that sent them to the playoffs for just the second time in 18 years, but they're about to run into a buzzsaw. If they want this rare postseason appearance to last longer than a week, they'll need a whole lot more out of Karl-Anthony Towns than they got in the play-in game.

Before fouling out of that game, Towns struggled badly against a Clippers team that opted to guard him mostly with forwards (an increasingly popular tactic around the league), pushed him out high on catches, and flustered him with swarming help anytime he tried to put the ball on the floor. Unfortunately, things aren't going to get any easier for him against the Grizzlies, even though he had success in this matchup during the regular season.

With a gargantuan starting frontcourt of Steven Adams and Jaren Jackson Jr., the Grizzlies can get the best of both worlds. They can stick either Adams or Jackson on Towns, letting the other roam off of Jarred Vanderbilt and muck things up around the rim. Jackson would seem like the natural choice to take the Towns assignment. He's one of the only bigs in the league with the length to bother Towns' shot, the strength to keep him out of the deep post, and the speed to cut off his drives.

Jackson is also a far more disruptive help defender than Adams, so Memphis might prefer to have him play the free safety role. But Adams is a significantly better rebounder, so it might make more sense to have him play close to the basket. Either way, Towns will have his work cut out for him. That goes for the defensive end, too, where he'll be tasked with handling the league's most hellacious offensive rebounding team. Sounds fun. Meanwhile, the Wolves ranked 27th in defensive rebound rate this season.

There are ways the Wolves can get Towns going offensively, including having him run inverted pick-and-rolls to attack the Grizzlies' weak defensive links, namely Ja Morant. Using him as a ball screener can also be effective, especially if Adams is guarding him. But ultimately, they'll just need Towns to play with the kind of composure, patience, and assertiveness that he lacked in the play-in and frankly also lacked during his lone playoff appearance in 2018. The Grizzlies are large, fast, physical, and tough. If Towns isn't prepared to meet that challenge, Minnesota's postseason sojourn will be very brief indeed.

Prediction: Grizzlies in five

Warriors (3) vs. Nuggets (6)

How will the Warriors defend Jokic?

Watching Nikola Jokic and Denver's sixth-ranked offense try to solve Golden State's top-ranked defense is going to be all kinds of fun. The Warriors dropped three of four to Denver during the regular season, but Draymond Green didn't play in any of those games, and they still managed to hold the Nuggets to about three points per 100 possessions below their season average. There's never a perfect answer when it comes to defending Jokic, but the Warriors have the ingredients to make his life slightly more difficult than usual, which is all you can ask.

Kevon Looney has done a passable job as Jokic's primary defender - which still makes him food, but we're grading on a curve here. He'll get plenty of help, though, especially from a roving Draymond, whom Golden State can stash on a non-threatening shooter (Jeff Green, for instance) and set loose as either a post doubler or a passing-lane hawk. The Warriors can mix in some fronts and have Draymond loom on the back side. They've shown a willingness to peel-switch smaller players onto Jokic in the pick-and-pop, and they'll send plenty of hard double-teams when he gets the ball deep.

Between Draymond, Gary Payton II, Andrew Wiggins, Klay Thompson, and Otto Porter Jr., Golden State has the collective help-and-recover ability to mitigate the reigning MVP's playmaking genius. There will be times when Looney has to sit because of his offense, and those minutes will be the most interesting of the series. Draymond will likely take over center duties, and it will be necessary for Jokic to do enough damage in that matchup to offset what the Warriors' small-ball lineups do to the Nuggets at the other end of the floor.

Maybe more than anything, it'll be incumbent on the Nuggets' guards to keep the defense honest. They'll need to make the Warriors pay for staying glued to Jokic in pick-and-roll and dribble-handoff scenarios, hit shots when Jokic gets swarmed and kicks out, and get the Warriors out of drop coverage, forcing them to switch some screening actions and concede the mismatch underneath. But that's asking a lot of Monte Morris (a reluctant shooter and driver), Will Barton (a middling shooter), Austin Rivers (a middling shooter with minimal downhill juice), and Bones Hyland (a rookie). Golden State's advantage on the perimeter is enormous.

Of course, the extent of that advantage is contingent on the state of Steph Curry's injured foot. Curry is reportedly expected to play in Game 1, but if he's physically compromised, the door is open for the Nuggets. If he's fully healthy or close to it, however, the Warriors have the edge.

Prediction: Warriors in six

Mavericks (4) vs. Jazz (5)

Can the Mavs' offense minimize Gobert's impact?

Had Luka Doncic not tweaked his calf in the last game of the regular season, the Mavs would've had reason to feel good about this matchup. They were the far better team down the stretch, and they have the best player in the series. With Doncic now set to miss at least one game and likely more, Dallas is going to be playing catch-up and will be hard-pressed to generate enough offense to keep up with high-scoring Utah.

The Jazz finished the year ranked No. 1 in offensive efficiency, and their disappointing season was primarily a result of their shaky defense. Fortunately for them, this matchup should be survivable at that end of the floor, especially with Doncic sitting out. As good as Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie have been as secondary ball-handlers, the Luka-less Mavs just don't have enough ways to hurt Utah's drop coverage and mitigate Rudy Gobert's defensive impact.

Dallas can play lineups with Maxi Kleber at center that ostensibly spread the Jazz out, but those lineups don't have the level of shooting that we saw from the Clippers' five-out groups that shredded Utah last year. Though they improved in the back half of the season, the Mavs still finished just 19th in 3-point percentage. Trying to space things out further with Davis Bertans at the five would mean giving everything and more back at the defensive end.

Dallas also lacks the type of advantage extenders that can really stretch the Jazz to their breaking point, even with Dinwiddie aboard. Kleber attacking a closeout and moseying his way into the middle of the floor isn't scaring anyone. Dorian Finney-Smith and Reggie Bullock are only marginally more threatening. Dallas got to the rim less frequently than any team outside of Phoenix this season, and while that doesn't seem like bad company to be in, the Mavs don't have the pull-up jump-shooting prowess to make that shot profile work to nearly the extent the Suns do. Without Doncic, they also lose a massive chunk of their floater-range equity.

With Doncic healthy, there are some significant pressure points Dallas can hit. Utah doesn't have a great on-ball option to throw at him (Royce O'Neale will draw the bulk of the assignment), and there are a handful of weak perimeter defenders he can choose to pick on. The Jazz will have to either show and recover or switch into bad matchups when Doncic pulls their guards into the fray. And Doncic working in isolation against the likes of Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley, and Jordan Clarkson will collapse the defense.

But will the Mavs have enough of an edge in those games to flip the series if the Jazz start by winning on the road in Doncic's absence? Utah still comfortably won the Gobert-Doncic minutes during the regular-season series, as Dallas had more trouble slowing down Utah's offense than vice versa.

Prediction: Jazz in six