NBA playoff betting: Trying to make sense of a weird first week
After a chaotic first week of the NBA playoffs, somewhat surprisingly, just one first-round series ended in a sweep. A dearth of close games isn't what makes these contests relatively uninteresting to bet on, but a rash of day-to-day injuries has made it difficult to pinpoint value - a trait prohibitive to betting confidently during the regular season.
There's still much more basketball to be played before rings are won, so I spent the last week trying to piece together ratings for the teams based on the evolving point spreads in each series.
NBA team ratings
Our 1-100 scale ratings are built on the idea of a 25-point maximum point spread. The largest point spread in an NBA game since 1990 was when Charles Barkley's Suns were -24 against the Mavericks in 1993. More recently, the 2016 Warriors - with a 73-9 record - took on the 10-72 76ers and were 20.5-point favorites. As a result, it's unlikely we'll ever see a spread higher than 25 points, so each rating point is worth a quarter on the point spread. Home-court advantage is also estimated.
| TEAM | RATING | HCA |
|---|---|---|
| Celtics | 78 | 3.5 |
| Bucks | 78 | 3 |
| Suns | 76 | 3 |
| 76ers | 75 | 3 |
| Nuggets | 71 | 3.5 |
| Warriors | 71 | 4 |
| Lakers | 63 | 3.5 |
| Grizzlies | 59 | 3.5 |
| Kings | 59 | 4 |
| Cavaliers | 57 | 3 |
| Clippers* | 57 | 2.5 |
| Heat | 54 | 2 |
| Timberwolves | 53 | 3 |
| Knicks | 51 | 3.5 |
| Hawks | 50 | 2 |
| Nets | 48 | 2 |
*The Clippers' rating is estimated with Kawhi Leonard but without Paul George since George didn't play a playoff game, and Leonard did. All other teams' ratings are based on being full strength.
Injury issues
How much is each missing star player worth to the point spread? We had various examples of lines altered with news of a key player missing.
| PLAYER | TEAM RATING | POINT VALUE |
|---|---|---|
| Ja Morant | -24 | 6 |
| Kawhi Leonard | -20 | 5 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | -18 | 4.5 |
| Joel Embiid | -14 | 3.5 |
| Draymond Green | -6 | 1.5 |
| Tyler Herro | -4 | 1 |
The Grizzlies were -3 for much of the week but closed -5 in Game 1 against the Lakers, and after Ja Morant was hurt, they closed as 1-point underdogs in Game 2. That suggests a six-point swing without their star. The fact that Memphis won handily without him, it would seem that adjustment is too much; something to watch in case he misses another game.
Clippers +2.5 at home in Game 3 against the Suns was well-established before Leonard was a late scratch, and the line closed with Los Angeles as a 7.5-point underdog without Kawhi. Despite the Clippers covering, Game 4 had the same line.
It's more difficult to determine Giannis Antetokounmpo's point spread value in the market. The Bucks went from -9 to -5.5 from Game 1 to Game 2, but the Heat also lost a 20-plus PPG scorer in Tyler Herro, so there has to be some consideration for that absence. Like the Grizzlies, the Bucks also won handily without their best player, so Game 3's line - which should have been around a pick'em - closed Bucks -2 after opening Bucks -5 with the idea that Giannis would be back.
The Sixers and Nets seemed inaccurately rated when Philadelphia was -8.5 at home in Game 1. The market going to -10 for Game 2 is indicative of that. After the Sixers covered again, they opened -5.5, but the line dropped to -2 after news broke that Joel Embiid would be out.
Draymond Green's suspension dropped the line for Game 3 between the Warriors and Kings from a -7.5 open, down to -5.5, before settling at -6. Upon Green's return - after a big Warriors win - Golden State was back at -7.5 for Game 4.
The 'Zig-Zag Theory' and '1-2-3 Cancun' tax
Naturally, a big win and cover usually results in an immediate ratings bump for a team, whether that's in basketball, football, or another sport. However, in the NBA, you also have the "Zig-Zag Theory" - the idea that the team who lost the previous game is more likely to have a better effort and cover the following game. For example, the Cavaliers were -5 in a Game 1 loss to the Knicks but were -5.5 in Game 2. The Warriors saw a massive 3-point move toward them before Game 2 in Sacramento.
Going down 0-3 leaves virtually no hope for NBA teams, and ever since Nick Van Exel uttered "one-two-three Cancun!" in a Lakers huddle in 1998, the reputation is that the losing team would rather just get swept and start vacation early than bother going back to the better team's city for Game 5. The point spread can reflect that sentiment. The Timberwolves were appropriate 1.5-point home underdogs in Game 3, but that line ballooned to a consensus -4 in Game 4 without any injury consideration. Even a full one-point bump for the Nuggets covering three straight doesn't account for that move, but the perception of Minnesota's lack of interest would.
Calculating value for this week
Simply take each team's rating and divide it by four. You'll get a number that you can use to determine a point spread. Apply home-court advantage to create a line, as follows:
- Bucks (19.5) @ Heat (13.5 + 2 - 1) = Bucks -5 (w/ Antetokounmpo)
- Grizzlies (14.75) @ Lakers (15.75 + 3.5) = Lakers -4.5
- Hawks (12.5) @ Celtics (19.5 + 3.5) = Celtics -10.5
- Timberwolves (13.25) @ Nuggets (17.75 + 3.5) = Nuggets -8
- Clippers (14.25 - 5) @ Suns (19 + 3) = Suns -12.5 (-115)
- Knicks (12.75) @ Cavaliers (14.25 + 3) = Cavaliers -4.5
- Warriors (17.75) @ Kings (14.75 - 4) = Kings -1
Disagree with a rating, a home-court advantage allotment, an injured player value, and can't apply a situational tax to the spread? That's an indication for a bet this week.
Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.