NBA playoff betting: Trying to decipher the market for Round 2

Last week, we looked at what went into making the point spreads for the first-round matchups given injuries to key players and other theoretical motivational situations over the course of a series. With new matchups for Round 2, we get different comparisons to help shape our ratings as we take our best guess at how oddsmakers may have landed on the point spreads for this week's games.

NBA team ratings

Milwaukee is the biggest removal from the list after its upset loss to Miami, so Boston (+125) takes over as the clear NBA title favorite. However, I'm trying to figure out how the Celtics got to as high as 10-point favorites in Game 1 against Philadelphia.

Before we get into the obvious Sixers downgrade due to an injured Joel Embiid, we have to bump the Celtics' rating up by a half-point because of home-court advantage. We'll ignore some of Boston's struggles with closing out Atlanta as the team had significant leads against the Hawks in all three games, even though they blew the last one late.

The Nuggets saw a slow increase in their rating from Game 1 against Minnesota through tip-off with the Suns, as they took money to move from -2.5 to -3.5 in the opener with Phoenix. Denver's up to as high as -4.5 for Game 2, which suggests the market thinks its rating of 75/100 is too low after its comfortable Game 1 win and cover. I'd be more apt to grab the points with the Suns if I wasn't already committed to the Nuggets winning the series.

Eventually, it became clear that the market had the Grizzlies and Lakers rated equally as they were each -4.5 in their final home game of the series. Looking at Warriors -4.5 for Game 1 against Los Angeles, we might have had both the Lakers and Grizzlies too low. Either that or there's some decent value on the Warriors.

Missing persons report

How much is each missing star player worth to the point spread? We had various examples of lines altered with news of a key player missing.

It shouldn't be surprising that most of the key players who made this list last week are no longer in the playoffs.

Julius Randle joins the list after the Knicks got bet out to -5 when it was presumed he'd play in Game 1 but fell back to -3.5 when he was ruled out. New York is -7 in Game 2, which suggests that there's some concern about Jimmy Butler not being available Tuesday night. Butler might be worth more than that adjustment, so this feels like a number in between him playing and him not. We'll have a better idea if he misses Game 2.

As for Embiid, aggressive changes to both the 76ers' and Celtics' ratings, along with an optimistic boost in Boston's home-court advantage, would put the C's as 5.5-point favorites with Embiid healthy. Boston moved to -10 when Doc Rivers admitted it was unlikely that the Sixers' star would play Monday night. That stretches his point spread effect to 4.5 points, which might be explained by the fact that Philadelphia is playing a tougher team than when its spread moved just three points against Brooklyn. Either way, the line has come back down off that peak, suggesting rating, home court, Embiid, or all three of those pieces might have made -10 an over-adjustment.

Other adjustments

Maybe there's a fourth element going into the spreads this week? We're adding one more "tax" for Round 2 - the "well-rested tax." Unlike going from the regular season to the first round, there can be a rest discrepancy for teams going into Round 2. Philadelphia hasn't played for well over a week after sweeping the Nets, while the Celtics played last Thursday. The Lakers have had three days off while the Warriors have one. Is either of those worth a half-point in the same way a zig-zag might be for the Suns and Knicks?

Calculating value for this week

Simply take each team's rating and divide it by four. You'll get a number that you can use to determine a point spread. Apply home-court advantage, key injury, and any situational tax to create a line, as follows:

• 76ers (18.25 - 4 + *0.5) @ Celtics (19.75 + 4) = Celtics -9
• Suns (19.25 + ^0.5) @ Nuggets (18.75 + 4.5) = Nuggets -3.5
• Heat (13.25 - '4 - 1) @ Knicks (12.75 + 3.5 - '1.5+ ^0.5) = Knicks -6.5
• Lakers (16.5 + *0.5) @ Warriors (17.5 + 4) = Warriors -4.5

*Bump for rest advantage
^Bump for Zig-Zag Theory
'Injury downgrade (Butler = 4 points)

Disagree with a rating, a home-court advantage allotment, or an injured player value, or won't apply a situational tax to the spread? That's an indication of a bet this week.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.