76ers-Celtics Game 7 betting: How to find value for Sunday's series finale
All four of the NBA playoffs' second-round series went to Game 6. The Celtics beat the 76ers in Philadelphia as 2.5-point favorites to force a Game 7. The Suns, Knicks, and Warriors all subsequently failed to win on the road to keep their seasons alive. Instead of a very spicy weekend, we have just one high-level matinee, as the wildest and weirdest series of Round 2 reaches its conclusion. A matchup against the 8-seed Heat in the Eastern Conference finals is on the line.
76ers @ Celtics (-6.5, 201.5)
The point spreads for the games in Boston have gradually crept down from Celtics -7.5 in Game 2 to Celtics -8 in Game 6. The implication is that these two teams are closer than assumed because of two big upsets from the Sixers on the road.
The key to those 76ers' victories, though, came from the left hand of James Harden via scoring and distribution.
| GAME | POINTS | FG | AST | REB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45 | 17/30 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | 42 | 16/23 | 9 | 8 |
| 5 | 17 | 4/8 | 10 | 8 |
In the Sixers' three losses, Harden shot 2-of-19 from three and 9-of-44 overall.
When the Celtics have won, they've covered comfortably. If they can contain Harden again, a seven-point win is very doable. So which version of Harden can we expect?
In 22 elimination games, he's averaged 23.4 points per game - a relatively low total for a high-usage first-option star. He's shot less than 33% from the 3-point line and averaged 4.5 turnovers on the way to being 9-13, including just one win in the last nine elimination games.
The Celtics' fourth-quarter explosion saved their season to give Jayson Tatum and his supporting cast a second chance back at home. They'll look to take advantage of Doc Rivers' poor Game 7 record. While Joe Mazzulla has taken flack during the series, Rivers hasn't won a winner-take-all matchup since 2015, losing four straight by 12 points per game.
Pick: Celtics -6.5
Props
James Harden under 35.5 points, rebounds, assists (+100)
Harden's lifetime "PRA" averages in elimination games add up to 34.6. To go over this total, he'll have to surpass his production under high pressure at the peak of his career, when he was the central focus of an offense. In the three losses in this series, Harden totaled 26, 33, and 29 combined points, rebounds, and assists. Given the total for Game 7 is lined at 10 points or fewer than any other game in the series, the expectation is for 5% fewer points and assists available in general.
Malcolm Brogdon and Al Horford each to have over 1.5 steals, and each to make over 1.5 3-pointers: +5500
Key support players like Malcolm Brogdon and Al Horford will have to come through at home for the Celtics to win. They might contribute enough to the box score on both ends of the court to make it worth a small bet on a long-shot outcome. That's if Boston can implement the defense-first mindset that allowed it to win Game 6, and if Brodgon and Horford can take advantage of open spot-up threes when Tatum warrants defensive attention.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.