NBA Finals betting: Closing time in Game 5

The Nuggets' -5000 series odds suggest a 98% chance they'll win the NBA title. Looking into series odds is integral to what we do in this space, and we were already pretty certain about this outcome before the NBA Finals started.

Those willing to back their opinion in the betting market imply there's around a 78.9% chance the series is decided Monday night, as Denver's Game 5 moneyline sits at -375.

If you hold a Nuggets futures ticket - having never faced elimination all playoffs - or a Nuggets (-1.5 games) series future, this is the best singular chance you'll have to close those out.

If you don't have any of those tickets, what to bet on tonight becomes a far more complicated issue.

Game 5: Heat @ Nuggets (-8.5, 208.5)

The total continues to fall after another under cashed in Game 4 and is 10 points lower than it closed in Game 1. That's a function of the Heat's shooting percentage returning to its regular-season level - they were 29th in the league from beyond the arc.

Which of the four NBA Finals games is the statistical outlier? Game 2 is the only contest in which the Heat covered (winning outright) and the total went over. None of the other contests went over their respective totals - or even this lowered 208.5 mark.

The Nuggets, who were -3.5 on the road, covered both games in Miami with ease, meaning we have to re-evaluate the calculations for point spreads.

There are three core elements that we look at when evaluating a point spread, and each one could require a change:

1. Denver's rating could go up. The Nuggets started the postseason with an estimated market rating of 71/100. They rose to 77 after three comfortable series wins, but with three more covers and a 14-5 record against the spread, moving a soon-to-be championship team up to 80/100 doesn't sound so crazy.
2. Miami's rating could go down. Pardon the pun, but the team might have just gone on a heater. Miami opened the first round with a very average 52/100 rating following a 44-38 regular season record. The Heat have regularly shot the ball well above their season-long percentages. Miami knocked off top teams in the East and slowly got credit for that, moving into the low 60s in the market. Perhaps the Heat are just regressing toward that initial rating.
3. Miami's home-court advantage might be even less than 3-3.5 points. The Heat lost handily at home twice, extending a home losing streak to four. Given there was just a 5-point swing in the point spread from Game 2 in Denver to Game 3, maybe oddsmakers just lack respect for the Heat's home-court advantage.

If you lean toward either of the first two categories to adjust general valuation, how can we be right back to the same point spread in Game 5 that we had in Games 1 and 2?

"Heat culture" might be getting credit via some form of cliche about playing well with their backs against the wall, but wasn't that the case in the last game, too? Would we even be readying for a Game 5 if it weren't for a 10-point splurge from the Heat's 10th-best player in the fourth quarter of Game 2?

The problem with a bet on the Nuggets at -8.5 - even if we think that line is too short - is that they don't need to win by nine points to accomplish what they've dreamed about their whole lives. They'll never remember if they covered this game in years, months, or even days from now. A late 10-15 point lead will result in a celebratory handful of final possessions, and Nuggets backers will be vulnerable to loose plays and a potential backdoor cover. Those who hold Nuggets futures tickets won't care, either.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.