2024 NBA championship futures: How Beal trade changes Suns' title chances
Well, that didn't take long.
Last week, as the Nuggets celebrated their first-ever championship, we took a way-too-soon look at the NBA futures market for next year's title. The general thesis was that all bets this summer should be designed with an eye on beating the market to a major personnel move.
The Suns didn't even make it to the draft before pulling off what might be the move of the offseason. They appear set to acquire Bradley Beal from the Wizards for Chris Paul - who was on his way out - Landry Shamet, and other pick-related assets. The resulting shift on the oddsboard was significant.
2024 NBA championship odds
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Nuggets | +500 |
| Celtics | +550 |
| Suns | +550 |
| Bucks | +650 |
| Warriors | +1200 |
| Lakers | +1200 |
| Mavericks | +1400 |
| Clippers | +1400 |
| 76ers | +1400 |
| Heat | +1700 |
| Grizzlies | +2500 |
| Cavaliers | +2500 |
| Pelicans | +4000 |
| Kings | +4000 |
| Knicks | +5000 |
| Hawks | +6000 |
| Timberwolves | +6000 |
| Raptors | +6000 |
| Thunder | +7500 |
| Nets | +10000 |
| Rockets | +10000 |
| Trail Blazers | +10000 |
| Bulls | +15000 |
| Pacers | +15000 |
| Magic | +15000 |
| Jazz | +15000 |
| Wizards | +15000 |
| Spurs | +20000 |
| Hornets | +40000 |
| Pistons | +50000 |
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
The Suns were available for +850 last week, as we noted that they'll "hope that whoever they surround Kevin Durant and Devin Booker with this offseason can support the two stars' chances for success in the West." There are some questions about whether Beal can stay healthy - he's played more than 73 games just thrice in his career - and he's also never made a conference finals. Yet he may be the most significant piece to move this offseason.
Phoenix hops over the Bucks - who were rumored to be interested in Beal - to join the Celtics as a co-second choice. We'll see if the excitement over this move brings enough money into this market for the Suns to usurp Denver as the favorite to win the title.
Going from +850 to +550 is a move from 10.5% implied win probability to 15.4%. Whether the Suns are 5% more likely to win the title or not is up for the bettor to decide. The Kings, Pelicans, and Hawks are the only teams that have seen their odds dip since last week, meaning that oddsmakers aren't willing to dock the top contenders yet, even if mid-tier Western Conference squads should probably take the brunt of this move.
While we're here, it's worth mentioning that Ja Morant's 25-game suspension has resulted in the Grizzlies going from 18-1 to 25-1 to win the title.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.