FIBA World Cup semifinal betting preview: Are Team USA and Canada bound to meet?
Both Team USA and Canada advanced to the final four at the FIBA World Cup. Team USA plays Germany, while Canada plays Serbia on Friday morning. The winners advance to the gold-medal game on Sunday.
Many teams atop the favorites board fell short, including France, Australia, and Spain.
Team USA and Canada are favorites in their respective matchups with an implied probability to win of 85% and 69%, respectively, but both squads have shown they are susceptible to defeat.
Let's dive into the semifinal matchups.
USA (-10.5) vs. Germany (O/U 178.5)
Team USA looked like it could coast to the gold medal in the early group-stage contests. But a bout with Lithuania tempered those expectations as Team USA lost 110-104 in the second round.
Luckily, the defeat didn't come in the single-elimination rounds, and the loss actually resulted in an easier path to the gold-medal game.
At this level, a defeat can be beneficial for a heavy favorite, as it proves the team isn't invincible and indicates that another loss might be coming unless it turns things around.
Team USA has played one game since it lost to Lithuania and responded in dominant fashion by destroying Italy 100-63 to advance to the semifinals.
Germany is Team USA's next opponent. The game goes on Friday in the Philippines for a chance to play in the championship.
Germany, who entered with the eighth-best odds, is a perfect 6-0 and impressed in wins over Australia and Slovenia. Most recently, Germany narrowly escaped Latvia, 81-79, in the quarterfinals.
The German roster is full of impact NBA players, led by Dennis Schroder, Daniel Theis, Mo Wagner, and Franz Wagner.
Team USA's biggest weakness is its rebounding due to lack of size. Before its last bout with Italy, the team was out-rebounded by a combined 34 boards.
Head coach Steve Kerr will, and seemingly has, put a greater emphasis on team rebounding, partly by trotting out bigger lineups. But Germany has out-rebounded its opponents by an average of six boards per game.
If Germany can crash the offensive glass and create extra offensive opportunities, it'll have an easier time keeping up with Team USA's offensive prowess.
Germany is talented, but not as accomplished as Team USA, and not nearly as deep. Although Germany can give Team USA a challenge and possibly cover the 10.5-point spread, Team USA will advance.
Pick: Pass
Canada (-5.5) vs. Serbia (O/U 175.5)
Canada Basketball is officially on the map. Not only has the team raced to the semifinals, but it also clinched its first Olympic berth in over 20 years for the 2024 Games.
Canada lost in the second round to Brazil, setting up a must-win game against Spain, the reigning champion.
While the team barely outlasted the Spaniards, it showed resiliency in a three-point win against a side that consistently dominates on the world stage.
Canada's been scorching hot from three, averaging 41.3% from distance in its last two games. If those numbers don't dip, Serbia will have a near-impossible time defeating Canada.
Serbia has a solid group, led by NBA players Bogdan Bogdanovic and Nikola Jovic, but its appearance as a final-four team is slightly misleading.
Serbia did not have to play much elite competition to get here. Its lone loss was to Italy, and Serbia beat Lithuania, who wasn't as good as its record indicated, to earn a date with Canada in the semis.
In a battle against superstar Luka Doncic, Canada's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went off for 31 points and led his team to an 11-point win over Slovenia. RJ Barrett's 24 points and Dillon Brooks' 14 also helped Canada advance. If those three guys are clicking, Canada is unstoppable.
With two days of rest and a chance to play Team USA in the gold-medal game, Canada won't have a problem taking care of Serbia.
Pick: Canada -5.5
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter @soshtry for more betting coverage.