NBA Southeast betting preview: Can Miami keep up with East contenders?
After a miraculous run to the NBA Finals as an eighth seed, the Heat didn't have the offseason many anticipated they would to keep pace with the East's contenders. Miami, along with the rest of the teams in its division, have a tall task to compete with the best.
We're wrapping up the Eastern Conference with a look at the Southeast Division, and it includes a disappointing offseason from the Heat and a plethora of teams with young, unproven talent.
Catch up on our previews of the Atlantic and Central divisions.
Futures Odds
| Team | Division | Conference | Championship |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heat | -185 | +1300 | +2500 |
| Hawks | +220 | +3000 | +6600 |
| Magic | +900 | +10000 | +15000 |
| Hornets | +4000 | +15000 | +40000 |
| Wizards | +15000 | +20000 | +40000 |
Heat win total and odds to make playoffs
| Win total | Odds to make/miss playoffs | Implied prob. to make playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| 46.5 | -600/+425 | 85% |
Projected starting lineup:
- Tyler Herro
- Josh Richardson
- Jimmy Butler
- Kevin Love
- Bam Adebayo
The Heat's offseason grade is no greater than a D-. Everyone around the league assumed Lillard joining the Heat was a foregone conclusion, largely because Lillard stated he'd only play for Miami, and superstars usually get their demands.
However, that didn't create much leverage for a player with four years remaining on his contract. The Heat didn't have the necessary assets to win the Lillard sweepstakes, which ended with him joining the Bucks while the Heat were left in the dust.
Cue the meme with Patrick and Spongebob playing outside as Squidward looks out the window watching them have fun. Patrick and Spongebob are the Bucks and Celtics, while Squidward is the Heat.
The defending Eastern Conference champs have fallen flat on their face in the 2023-24 arms race to be crowned the kings of the East.
It's true that Miami had a poor regular season last year and went on an improbable run to the finals, but that was in a vulnerable conference with no true frontrunners. The Bucks and Celtics are significantly better than last year, while the Heat are worse.
Remember, the Heat were the fourth-worst 3-point shooting team in the league during the regular season and suddenly became the best in the playoffs. It was a statistical anomaly that won't be replicated.
Furthermore, Miami lost Gabe Vincent and Max Strus in free agency, two big parts of its playoff run. Duncan Robinson became unplayable in the postseason, and the Heat were actually better off without Herro, who missed most of the playoffs with a hand injury.
It's hard to ever count out Jimmy Butler, Erik Spoelstra, and the entire Heat organization, especially because of how quickly and effectively the team develops players, but this group doesn't have much promise entering the season.
Bet: Under 46.5 wins
Hawks win total and odds to make playoffs
| Win total | Odds to make/miss playoffs | Implied prob. to make playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| 42.5 | -230/+185 | 69% |
Projected starting lineup:
- Trae Young
- Dejounte Murray
- De'Andre Hunter
- Saddiq Bey
- Clint Capela
The Hawks flirted with contender status a couple years ago but ultimately remained married to mediocrity. They were 41-41 last season, earned the seventh seed by virtue of the play-in, and were swept by the Celtics in the first round.
There are limitations - defensively but also offensively - with a guard as small and inefficient as Trae Young.
Young had the highest usage rate on the team among rotation players but shot just 43% from the field. The Hawks shipped off John Collins, allowing Hunter, Murray, and Bey to have a larger role. However, this team made no major - or even incremental - improvements this offseason.
Unless Young boosts his efficiency and has an MVP-caliber season, the Hawks will earn around 41-43 wins once again and, in other words, be mediocre.
Bet: Pass
Magic win total and odds to make playoffs
| Win total | Odds to make/miss playoffs | Implied prob. to make playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| 36.5 | +165/-205 | 37% |
Projected starting lineup:
- Markelle Fultz
- Gary Harris
- Franz Wagner
- Paolo Banchero
- Wendell Carter Jr.
The rest of the teams in the Southeast are full of young, unproven talent. The Magic, for example, have what they believe are potential building blocks for future success and other parts they are unsure will be on the ship when it eventually sets sail.
Banchero won Rookie of the Year last season and looks like he can become a dominant forward. He also played on Team USA this summer, which the Magic hope accelerated his growth.
After a tumultuous start to his career, Fultz has turned into a worthy starter. He had the highest assist ratio on the Magic last season and a relatively low turnover percentage. The former No. 1 overall pick still isn't a great outside shooter, but he shot over 51% from the field and almost 80% from the free throw line.
Wagner averaged 18 points last season, second-most on a team that won 34 games. As for Jalen Suggs, Wendell Carter Jr., Cole Anthony, and newly drafted Jett Howard and Anthony Black - all 24 years old or younger - there are still question marks surrounding their worth to the organization's future.
The team may not improve much, but I think another jump among its best players will produce more than a three-game win increase from last season.
Bet: Over 36.5 wins
Hornets win total and odds to make playoffs
| Win total | Odds to make/miss playoffs | Implied prob. to make playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| 31.5 | +475/-700 | 17% |
Projected starting lineup:
- Lamelo Ball
- Terry Rozier
- Brandon Miller
- P.J. Washington
- Mark Williams
The Hornets are two years removed from winning 43 games. They plummeted to 27 wins last season, but Ball - Charlotte's best player - missed more than half the campaign.
Ball is one of the more unique players in the league as a 6-foot-7 unicorn with an effortless passing ability and a knack for scoring at the rim and as an outside shooter. If he's healthy for an entire season, Charlotte will up its win total.
The Hornets are young and inexperienced in key areas. Mark Williams showed flashes as a starting center last season, and Brandon Miller, who was selected second overall, is expected to have an immediate role as a scorer. Miles Bridges is also back.
This team won't sniff the playoffs, but the hope for the Hornets is that they can identify young pieces to build around.
Bet: Pass
Wizards win total and odds to make playoffs
| Win total | Odds to make/miss playoffs | Implied prob. to make playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| 24.5 | +1100/-2500 | 8% |
Projected starting lineup:
- Tyus Jones
- Jordan Poole
- Corey Kispert
- Kyle Kuzma
- Daniel Gafford
The Wizards have the lowest win total in the league - and understandably so. They entered a full rebuild when they traded Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis for draft capital and young assets.
Instead of hovering around mediocrity, the Wizards made the smart move and cleared house. It's going to be ugly in Washington for a few years, but with new management, the hope is they can turn it around quickly.
For this season, though, I wouldn't recommend watching the Wizards on League Pass with Poole and Kuzma as the primary options on the worst team in the league.
Bet: Pass
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage.