NBA Northwestern betting preview: Can the champs reclaim their throne?
There have been five different NBA champions crowned in the last five seasons. It's the first five-year span that's occurred in the NBA since 1977-81. Parity is finally here.
Without a superteam, it's hard to win multiple championships in a row. Denver is primed to buck the parity trend and repeat, but the team has stiff competition both in its conference and on the other coast.
We broke down the Nuggets and the rest of the Northwestern division, including the rising Thunder, to start our Western Conference division previews.
You can find the Eastern Conference division previews here:
Futures Odds
Team | Division | Conference | Championship |
---|---|---|---|
Nuggets | -450 | +270 | +550 |
Timberwolves | +650 | +4000 | +6600 |
Thunder | +750 | +3300 | +7500 |
Jazz | +5000 | +10000 | +15000 |
Blazers | +20000 | +10000 | +20000 |
Nuggets win total and odds to make playoffs
Win total | Odds to make/miss playoffs. Implied prob. to make playoffs | |
---|---|---|
53.5 | -2500/+1100 | 96% |
Projected starting lineup:
- Jamal Murray
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
- Michael Porter Jr.
- Aaron Gordon
- Nikola Jokic
The defending champion's core is back and hoping to repeat. The Nuggets have the best odds to win the West and third-best to win the NBA Finals - behind the Bucks and Celtics.
Jokic and Murray are the deadliest duo in the NBA - a title they'll hold until we see what Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo actually produce.
The Nuggets won 53 games last year, but it's fair to expect a slight regression. Teams that just won the championship often don't prioritize the regular season the following year. The loss of Bruce Brown Jr. eliminates some depth, too.
That said, Denver will still certainly have one of the best records in the West and be one of the last remaining teams in May.
Bet: Under 53.5 wins
Timberwolves win total and odds to make playoffs
Win total | Odds to make/miss playoffs | Implied prob. to make playoffs |
---|---|---|
44.5 | -150/+120 | 60% |
Projected starting lineup:
- Mike Conley Jr.
- Anthony Edwards
- Jaden McDaniels
- Karl-Anthony Towns Jr.
- Rudy Gobert
Given their talent, the Timberwolves have underachieved the last two seasons - they have two first-round exits as the seventh- and eighth-seed club.
Edwards emerged as an All-Star and one of the most dynamic scoring guards in the league. Towns is a two-time All-NBA selection and a dominant forward inside and out - he shot 41% from three during the 2021-22 season, the best among all centers.
Towns played in just 29 games last season because of an injury, which derailed Minnesota's season last year. With a healthy group and added depth, it's now or never for the Timberwolves to emerge as a top team in the West. If they don't, their front office will have to decide if they want to build around Towns or Edwards.
Minnesota's trade for Gobert can already be deemed disastrous. His offensive limitations are glaring and his fit with Towns and backup center Naz Reid is questionable. I don't see the Timberwolves emerging as a contender, but they will surpass 44.5 wins en route to a playoff appearance.
Bet: Over 44.5 wins
Thunder win total and odds to make playoffs
Win total | Odds to make/miss playoffs | Implied Prob. to make playoffs |
---|---|---|
44.5 | -135/+110 | 57% |
Projected starting lineup:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
- Josh Giddey
- Luguentz Dort
- Jalen Williams
- Chet Holmgren
Led by All-NBA First Team selection Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder had a 40-win season last year and accelerated their rebuilding timeline.
Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.4 points per game, the fourth-highest total in the NBA. But he wasn't the only Thunder player to emerge as a force. In his second year, Giddey became a playmaking machine, using his length, creativity, and vision to get to the basket and create for his teammates. If he can improve his outside shooting - he shot 32% from three - he could become a true star.
Williams showcased his abilities as a stretch-big. Holmgren missed his entire rookie season but will immediately have a substantial role on a team looking for their first playoff appearance since 2020. Assuming everyone continues to develop, this team is primed to take a serious jump.
Bet: Over 44.5 wins and to make the playoffs (-135)
Jazz win total and odds to make playoffs
Win total | Odds to make/miss playoffs | Implied prob. to make playoffs |
---|---|---|
35.5 | +360/-500 | 21% |
Projected starting lineup:
- Collin Sexton
- Jordan Clarkson
- Lauri Markkanen
- John Collins III
- Walker Kessler
The Jazz were one of the NBA's early surprises last season. They blew past their win total of 24.5 games last season to finish 37-45, just missing out on the play-in tournament. A big part of that was Markkanen, who won the Most Improved Player Award last season.
Utah hopes its core of players -which blossomed last year in Will Hardy's first year as coach - will take another leap and end up one step closer to the playoffs. Oddsmakers expect the opposite to happen. The Jazz's 35.5 win total tells us a regression is expected.
The Jazz added talent through the draft with three first-round selections, including Keyonte George, who lit up the Vegas Summer League. However, rookies rarely impact winning. Utah also traded for Collins, who struggled shooting the ball last season. But if he can get back to his 2019-21 form, he'll be a major boost for the Jazz.
Bet: Pass
Blazers win total and odds to make playoffs
Win total | Odds to make/miss playoffs | Implied prob. to make playoffs |
---|---|---|
28.5 | +1100/-2500 | 8% |
Projected starting lineup:
- Scoot Henderson
- Anfernee Simons
- Shaedon Sharpe
- Jerami Grant
- Deandre Ayton Sr.
The 11-year partnership with Damian Lillard officially ended a couple of weeks ago when Portland shipped its former star to Milwaukee in a three-team trade for a nice haul of assets, young players, and picks.
The Blazers now enter a complete rebuild but have potential building blocks for the future, including rookie Scoot Henderson and budding star Anfernee Simons.
The last couple of years with Lillard didn't result in wins anyway, so tearing it down and starting over was the right move for Portland. This season is about development for the Blazers, who have the second-lowest win total in the NBA.
Bet: Pass
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage.