NBA season-long win total best bets

Keep the countdown coming. The NBA tips off in 11 days.

We've been churning out NBA preseason content all week and will continue to until opening night. Everyone has NBA predictions prior to the season, so why not place a wager on your intuitions?

If you think a team will be better or worse than it's expected to be, place a bet on the win total. It's a long season - a lot can go right for some teams and wrong for others due to unforeseen circumstances. Without further ado, here are our best win total bets for the 2023-24 season.

Eastern Conference win totals

Heat under 45.5 wins

It's easy to forget the Heat were a 44-win team with the East's seventh-best record before they went on their magical run to the Finals. But their run was magical - it won't be replicated.

The Heat got worse this offseason after losing Gabe Vincent and Max Strus, and they dropped the ball on the Damian Lillard sweepstakes. Miami was the fourth-worst 3-point shooting team in the league last campaign.

Jimmy Butler is a phenomenal player, and so is Bam Adebayo. But Butler is called "Playoff Jimmy" for a reason. He's a much better player in the postseason than in the regular season.

The Heat will have to rely on a 37-year-old Kyle Lowry and a 35-year-old Kevin Love. Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro are both prolific shooters but horrible defenders. Robinson fell out of the playoff rotation entirely.

Heat Culture is a real thing. Miami finds and develops talent like it grows on trees. However, this roster seems ill-fit to be a threat in a crowded East.

Pacers over 38.5

I'm bullish on this Pacers team. Tyrese Haliburton earned his first All-Star appearance last season, and his career continues to be on an upward trajectory.

Buddy Hield is one of the NBA's most underrated shooters. He had the third-best 3-point percentage in the league among players who attempted at least six threes per game and played over 50 contests last season.

Myles Turner and Bennedict Mathurin developed nicely last season. Assuming they continue to evolve, the Pacers will take another leap. Indiana also added Obi Toppin and Bruce Brown.

The Pacers won 35 games last campaign and are clearly more talented and deeper entering this season.

Western Conference win totals

Rockets over 31.5

The Rockets have the perfect blend of veteran experience and young talent to surprise people this season. The free-agent additions of Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks provide an immediate jolt to a 22-win team last campaign.

There's also a young core in place that'll continue to develop this season, most notably Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. Rookies Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore were added to the mix, too.

Ime Udoka is a respected coach. He and the Rockets front office have made it clear they're ready to win now by paying proven players large contracts while continuing to build around potentially budding stars.

Houston may not make the playoffs this season, but the team could compete for a play-in spot and will surpass 31 wins.

Pelicans over 44.5 wins

This is a bet on Zion Willamson's health, which is admittedly a risky proposition. But Pelicans President of Basketball Operations David Griffin said this is the first offseason Williamson really took his profession seriously.

New Orleans got off to a great start last campaign with Williamson in the lineup. The team went 17-12, and he averaged 26 points per game before he suffered a season-ending injury. The Pelicans went 25-28 without him.

If Williamson enters the season in good shape and can stay healthy, the Pelicans are a playoff team.

Clippers over 46.5 wins

Maybe it's preseason optimism, but there seems to be a buy-in from the Clippers unlike in in years past.

Part of that is their stars Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are both healthy to enter the season. The other part is everyone recognizes it's a crucial year for the organization with both Leonard and George on expiring contracts.

Coach Ty Lue has echoed how the team needs to - and will - prioritize the regular season. Beyond Leonard and George, the Clippers have one of the NBA's deepest rosters. I expect them to be a top seed in the West.

Nuggets under 53.5

The Nuggets won 53 games last season and earned the 1-seed in the West. Oddsmakers expect a similar campaign from the defending champs.

However, there's reason to expect regression. There's often a championship hangover where the defending champs care less about the regular season.

Denver also lost Brown in free agency, which takes away from its depth. A deep bench is paramount to regular-season success during a grueling 82-game schedule.

There's no question the Nuggets will be a top seed in the West with most of their core returning. However, they'll win fewer regular-season games than last campaign.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage