What the odds say: Can Wembanyama live up to the hype?
The Spurs could be the most exciting 28-win team in NBA history with the addition of Victor Wembanyama, the most-hyped prospect since LeBron James.
Fans who've only recently heard about this alien-like prospect from France have gotten a brief glimpse of his capabilities throughout the preseason. Wembanyama's height, length, skill, athleticism, and foot speed defy everything fans have come to know about basketball players.
No one's ever seen a player with his skill set - passing, ball-handling, shooting - and frame. Just look at these plays from the preseason:
The interesting part is that although many expect to find out a lot about Wembanyama this season, we may actually not discover too much.
While Wembanyama will have incredible highlight blocks and dunks - social media accounts are already posting them nonstop - the Spurs won't win a lot of games.
Their win total is set at 29.5, the fourth worst in the league. From the moment the Spurs drafted Wembanyama in June, their plan for the future was pretty clear. San Antonio isn't trying or expecting to win a bunch of games this season.
Eventually - maybe even next season, depending on Wembanyama's progression - the Spurs will try to acquire more talent and shift into win-now mode. But San Antonio isn't building for one or two years with Wembanyama. The team is crafting a long-term plan.
The Spurs had a chance to go after restricted free agent Austin Reaves this summer but opted not to. They decided to mostly stick with their young roster that features just two players with over six years of NBA experience.
Wembanyama isn't the only project the Spurs are taking on this season. Jeremy Sochan, Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson are all young, mostly unproven pieces San Antonio hopes is a part of its future.
Wembanyama certainly won't play all 82 games; he might not even play 70. The Spurs will be careful with their most prized possession in franchise history, and that's saying something considering the greats that played in San Antonio.
There are many ways to speculate on Wembanyama and the Spurs this season. The most obvious one is Rookie of the Year, where Wembanyama is the favorite at -140, an implied probability of 53.5%. He has to play at least 65 games to qualify for the award.
He's already projected to be one of the league's top defenders with +1000 odds to win Defensive Player of the Year. Those odds are the same as the Heat's Bam Adebayo. He's also +7500 to win the MVP, award with the same odds as a number of the league's top players, including Bradley Beal, Jimmy Butler, and Jaylen Brown.
Here are a few other Wembanyama-specific markets available on theScore Bet.
Market | Odds | Implied Prob. |
---|---|---|
Wemby To Average A Double-Double in '23-'24 |
+225 | 30.8% |
Wemby To Win ROY & Spurs To Make The Playoffs |
+500 | 16.7% |
Wemby To Score Over 49.5 Points In Any '23-'24 Regular-Season Game |
+2500 | 3.8% |
Wemby To Win ROY & Gregg Popovich To Win Coach Of The Year |
+5000 | 2% |
In three preseason games, Wembanyama is averaging 19.3 points and slightly under five rebounds while playing only 21 minutes per contests.
Wembanyama's height and role as a rim-protector should allow him to collect a plethora of rebounds. He'll also be the offensive centerpiece, so shot volume shouldn't be a concern. However, one of the Spurs' weaknesses is at point guard, which means they could have problems delivering Wembanyama the ball.
For Wembanyama to score over 49.5 points in any game is +2500. Brandon Jennings scored 55 points in 2009, the most by a rookie this century. Trae Young scored 49 in 2019.
Wembanyama to win Rookie of the Year and Gregg Popovich to win Coach of the Year is +5000. Wembanyama to win Rookie of the Year and the Spurs to make the playoffs is +500.
The former bet would be the wiser play because Popovich will likely win Coach of the Year if the Spurs make the playoffs, which would be the greatest coaching feat of his 26-year run in San Antonio. The Spurs are +1100 to make the playoffs and -2500 (implied probability of 96%) to miss the postseason.
If Wembanyama is anything close to the player he's expected to be, the NBA world is about to watch a historic rookie season. Enjoy the Wemby ride.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage
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