NBA Monday best bets: Back Pelicans, Thunder as favorites
We finished opening week with an 8-6 record on our best bets. Let's build on it heading into Week 2 of the season.
We'll get right to our best bets for a loaded Monday slate.
Warriors @ Pelicans (-4)
Teams on the second night of a back-to-back are 2-7 against the spread this season. The Warriors played in Houston on Sunday night and traveled to New Orleans following the game for a Monday night matchup with the Pelicans.
The Warriors' core four - Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Chris Paul, and Draymond Green - are all at least 33 years old. There's a decent chance the Warriors decide to rest some of them, particularly 38-year-old Paul and Green, who recently returned from an ankle injury.
Even without the rest advantage, the Pelicans have a claim to be the deeper team. Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram have led New Orleans to a 2-0 record. Contributions from Herb Jones, CJ McCollum, and others have lifted the Pelicans, and if injuries don't derail their season - as they did last year - New Orleans may be able to stay near the top of the conference.
The line sat at -2 earlier Monday morning but has slowly been climbing in the Pels' favor.
Odds: Pelicans -4 (-110, playable to -130)
Pistons @ Thunder (-5.5)
Yes, the Thunder are on a back-to-back, and we're ignoring the trend of fading teams on the second leg of a back-to-back. But there's a reason for that.
The Nuggets absolutely walloped the Thunder on Sunday in Oklahoma City. However, since the Thunder lost by 33 and the game was pretty much over at halftime, none of the Thunder's stars had a significant workload. No starter played more than 28 minutes and 14 players - every rostered player except one - entered the game.
That game also started at 3:30 p.m. ET, so the Thunder should be relatively well-rested to host the Pistons. Our market rating model projects this line closer to 10. Oddsmakers account for the challenges of playing consecutive nights, which is likely factored into the line.
The Pistons' young core is off to a surprising 2-1 start, but the Thunder have the matchup edge and should coast to a victory.
Odds: Thunder -5.5 (-110, playable to -130)
Nets (-1) @ Hornets
The Nets are still searching for their first win after two heartbreaking losses to the Cavaliers and Mavericks. Coach Jacque Vaughn pointed to the closers on each team - Donovan Mitchell and Luka Doncic both hit daggers in the waning seconds - and Brooklyn's lack of a closer.
Mikal Bridges has been underwhelming through two games, but he and the team will be fine. The Nets can score with anyone - they have the eighth-best offensive rating in the league. The problem is their second-worst defensive rating.
Luckily for the Nets, they're visiting a Hornets team with the NBA's third-worst offensive rating through two games.
Odds: Nets -1 (-110, playable to -130)
Kyle Kuzma over 21.5 points
Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole are the focal points of the Wizards' offense.
Kuzma's averaging 23 points through two games, but his 3-point efficiency has been abysmal - he's 2-for-14 on the season. It's encouraging that he's been scoring without his jumper.
Despite early-season struggles, Kuzma is a 3-point threat; he's shot at least 33% from beyond the arc in the last three seasons. It's fair to expect he'll start hitting from long range.
The Wizards are 10.5-point underdogs against the Celtics in a matchup between perhaps the best and worst team in the league. Boston has a solid defense, anchored by Kristaps Porzingis' rim protection. Porzingis and Kuzma were teammates on the Wizards last year, so Kuzma should have a good idea of how to attack him.
Odds: -115 (playable to -140)
Ben Simmons over 8.5 rebounds
Ben Simmons is far from the All-Star caliber player he once was with the Sixers. But he's also distanced himself from the player who lost all his confidence and couldn't force his way into a rotation.
Simmons still isn't a scorer, but the Nets don't rely on him for that. He is, however, a fantastic passer - particularly in transition - and one of the best rebounding guards in the league. He has 20 rebounds through two games and 17 assists compared to just 14 points.
Simmons leads the Nets in boards and Brooklyn has the second-best rebounding percentage in the NBA. The Hornets rank in the bottom half of the league in rebounding percentage. Look for Simmons to take advantage on the glass Monday night.
Odds: -135 (playable to -150)
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage.