Bet or Bail: 5 trends worth looking at around the NBA

James Harden drama. The NBA-best Pacers' offense. Rookies shining. The Sixers atop the East. Are the Lakers in trouble?

There's no shortage of storylines through two weeks of the season; it's the beauty of the Association. While a sample size of under 10 games is too small to make any grand proclamations about how the rest of the season plays out, there are trends to follow that could become noticeable - or nothing - as the year goes on.

Every Thursday for the rest of the season, we'll break down five player, team, and league trends. We'll provide insight on whether the trend is positive (bet) or negative (bail), along with nuggets to help you wager on those trends.

Welcome to Bet or Bail.

Bet on Chet Holmgren's future

Chet Holmgren is redefining what it means to be a multipositional big. Yes, Nikola Jokic is a dominant big with uncanny vision and an exceptional ability to read defenses. Sure, Joel Embiid is a dominant rim-protector and can create from the perimeter. As can Kristaps Porzingis and Karl Anthony-Towns.

But there's no other big in the league who can handle the ball, protect the rim, and shoot like Holmgren. That doesn't mean he's better than any of the aforementioned players, but it shows how unique his skill set is.

Oddly enough, Holmgren's rookie counterpart Victor Wembanyama possesses many of the same distinguishable skills. Wembanyama will likely become the better player, but Holmgren is having the better season - hear me out! - through two weeks, despite trailing Wembanyama on the Rookie of the Year oddsboard by a large margin: Holmgren is +400, and Wembanyama is -350.

If Wembanyama's a unicorn, Holmgren's a dragon.

Holmgren is one of only six guys posting 50-40-90 shooting numbers (50% from the field, 40% from three, 90% from the foul line) among qualifying players. And he's the only one of those six also averaging two blocks per game.

The biggest difference between Holmgren and other rookies is that Holmgren is on a team in win-now mode. He doesn't have the luxury of patience the way most prized rookies do when they enter losing situations. The Thunder have the pieces to contend for a playoff spot, and Holmgren's a big part of that puzzle.

The Thunder are -235 (70% implied probability) to make the playoffs, while the Spurs are +700 (12% implied probability).

That doesn't mean Holmgren's not susceptible to mistakes. He isn't close to a finished product - it's easy to forget he's a rookie. He needs to become stronger, and he needs to work on his control near the rim. Both will come with reps and development.

Holmgren is frequently used as the screener in pick-and-rolls. He's so dangerous in that role because he has great hands, can finish around the rim, and can pop to knock down a three.

Other than spot ups, Holmgren is used as the screener in pick-and-rolls more than any other play type, and he ranks in the 90th percentile on those plays, according to Synergy.

His most frequent action is popping after setting a screen - he's doing it 50% of the time. Below, he sets up like he's about to set a pick but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander rejects it and gets a step on his defender, forcing Jokic to help. Gilgeous-Alexander finds Holmgren on the "pop," and he knocks down the three over a late Jokic closeout:

Holmgren rolls on almost 40% of his pick-and-roll possessions. He'll slip the screen 10% of the time. Here he is slipping a screen and finishing over the late help:

It doesn't happen often, but the Thunder have had multiple possessions with Holmgren as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll:

Fans typically see that silky-smooth crossover from a 6-footer, not a 7-footer. How many guys in the league have that handle, and can be effective as a pick-and-roll ball-handler and screener? Not many.

Holmgren's hit his betting over for points in six of his eight games.

The Wemby show is incredible, but there's also something special brewing in Oklahoma City. Don't miss out on Holmgren's act because you're too busy staring at the main attraction in San Antonio. Sometimes the opener is better than the headliner.

Bail on Knicks' offense

It's too early to completely write off the Knicks' offense, but it hasn't looked great through eight games. Prior to Wednesday's win over San Antonio, New York had the third-worst offensive rating in the NBA and averaged the second-fewest points per game.

After a 126-point performance against the Spurs - who have the worst defensive rating in the NBA - the Knicks have the eighth-worst offensive rating.

It's a stark contrast from their No. 4-ranked offense last year. The Knicks have virtually the same personnel, so what's the problem? The answer is two-time All-NBAer Julius Randle. While he doesn't deserve all the blame, he certainly owns a large chunk.

Randle's shooting 31% from the field and 25% from three. It's not just that he's struggling to make shots, but his shot selection is poor. He holds onto the ball for long stretches and forces contested looks instead of finding his teammates with quick reversals. That's a problem when he has the ball as much as he does.

Randle's top 20 in the league in touches. He has to produce more efficiently with his touches for the offense to efficiently operate. Right now, he's scoring .219 points per touch.

Randle's gone over his point total in only two games this year. The under is also 6-2 in Knicks games.

Yes, Randle and the Knicks have looked better in their last two wins, one against the Clippers in their first game with Harden, and the other over the Spurs. Randle averaged 25 points on 42% shooting in those two games, and that's encouraging, but he has much work to do to get back to his All-Star level.

The 4-4 Knicks actually have a positive net rating because of how great their defense has been; it's No. 2 in the NBA early on.

New York can't rely on its ferocious defense and exceptional rebounding - the club has the NBA's highest rebounding percentage and best offensive rebounding rate - all season. The offense must become less stagnant, incorporate more ball movement, and function at a higher level. That starts with Randle.

Bet on Tobias Harris' resurgence

Tobias Harris, who's in the final year of one of the NBA's worst contracts, is off to a glistening start. The Sixers desperately need him. After trading Harden, Philly - with the East's best record at 6-1 - needed a reliable third scorer.

He's been that this season. Embiid and Tyrese Maxey make the headlines, but Harris has been just as important to Philly's success. The Sixers are a perfect 7-0 against the spread.

Nick Nurse is having Harris and the Sixers play a different style that emphasizes player and ball movement. Doc Rivers' offense the last couple seasons was pick-and-roll centric, which didn't create opportunities for Harris to be involved other than as a spot-up player.

Harris is attempting shots near the rim at a much higher rate while limiting his 3-point attempts. His usage rate is nearly the same as last season, but his touches are much more efficient.

Harris' field-goal attempts are 70% 2-pointers, while nearly 30% are threes. Last year, 62% of his attempts were twos, while 38% were threes. Harris shot 38.9% from distance last year and is shooting a similar percentage this campaign, but he's a better player when he's attacking the basket and cutting.

Another subtle difference in Harris' game is he's playing and shooting mostly on the left and middle sections of the court. Harris advances to his left on 56% of his drives and goes right on 39%, according to Synergy.

Here he is turning down a three, using a head fake, and then driving left for a better shot at the rim:

Harris is averaging 19.3 points per game, which would be his best mark since 2020-21. He's gone over his point total in all seven games this season.

Bail on Heat to make playoffs

This isn't an overreaction to the Heat's 4-4 start. I wrote before the season that the Heat were a worthy bet at +340 to miss the playoffs. Those odds shortened since the start of the season but are still plus-money at +180 (35% implied probability).

The Heat are 2-6 against the spread, tied for the second-worst mark. They have the NBA's fifth-worst offensive rating and their defense has been around league average.

Tyler Herro's development into an all-around offensive player and an improved defender is encouraging, but Jimmy Butler is worse in the regular season than in the playoffs.

Their rotation includes 35-year-old Kevin Love - who's already missed five games - and 37-year-old Kyle Lowry. Butler's 34. That's not a successful formula to withstand an 82-game schedule.

Herro also injured his ankle Wednesday and is expected to miss a couple of weeks, while nine of Miami's next 10 games are on the road.

The Heat are shooting it much better from deep this season - they have the sixth-best 3-point percentage - but are still reluctant to let it fly. Their 3-point attempts rank 21st.

Now's the time to bet against the Heat before everyone else catches on and their odds shorten.

Bet on the In-Season Tournament

Fans complaining about the In-Season Tournament are the same ones yelling at kids to get off their lawns.

Change doesn't always lead to the sky falling, especially if that change is inconsequential. There's no harm in attempting to pull this tournament off. If it's a failure, nothing about NBA fans' viewing experience changes. We go back to normal regular-season games with no extra meaning. Its intended effect - having players buy into the early part of the regular season and increase engagement among fans - creates no downside for the usual audience.

From a viewer and bettor perspective, the early returns are good. It appeared that players were going full throttle on the tourney's opening day last Friday, which led to thrilling games. Six of the seven games were decided by single digits. Five games were decided by five points or fewer and three were decided by two points.

Maybe that's pure coincidence. It's a small sample, so it's hard to know, but we'll learn more the rest of the way. Tourney games get going again Friday.

If it does hold true that players believe there's increased importance to these games, that's great for bettors. The chief complaint with the NBA regular season is it's too long and players frequently show little effort. Bettors don't have to worry about that for these select games over the next month. They should be excited to bet on - and watch - these games. And everyone else should be, too.

Oh, and the courts - especially the blue ones - are cool and unique. The NBA is changing. Deal with it.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage.