NBA Monday best bets: Big shooting night for Barnes?
It's a new week of NBA hoops and a great opportunity to get back on a winning track. After two straight winning weeks to open the season, last week was disastrous, leaving us in the red.
Let's get back to finding some winners. There are only four games Monday night, so here are our three best bets.
Scottie Barnes: Over 1.5 threes made
Barnes is a volume shooter this season. He's averaging 5.7 attempts per game, nearly double last season's average. He's shooting more because he's making more. Barnes shot 29% from three in his first two seasons and is shooting 35% through nine games this year.
While that percentage needs to slightly improve for Barnes to become a top-tier shooter, he's clearly not shy in attempting them.
Barnes has made at least two threes in four of his last five games. He's proven to be streaky, but he'll still attempt them at a high rate.
The Raptors play the Wizards, who have the fifth-worst defensive rating and the fourth-worst opponent effective field-goal percentage, meaning they let their opposition score frequently. Barnes shouldn't have an issue creating looks from deep and scoring against a porous defense.
Odds: -115 (playable to -130)
Knicks team total: Under 106.5 points
The Knicks' offense has looked much improved over the last week, scoring 111, 126, and 129 points in its last three games. But it's important to look at the competition.
New York played the Clippers in their first game with James Harden; they're now 0-4 with him in the lineup. They then played the Spurs and Hornets, who have the NBA's worst and third-worst scoring defenses, respectively.
In the Knicks' previous six games, they had scored more than 106 points just twice. New York travels to Boston to face the league's third-best defensive-rated team (the Knicks rank second in defensive rating). It'll be much harder for N.Y. to score on the Celtics' perimeter length and solid rim protection than it was against previous opponents.
The Knicks' strength is offensive rebounding. They crash the offensive boards to create extra possessions. However, the Celtics are good at limiting offensive rebounding opportunities. They're third in opponent offensive rebounding percentage. Without extra possessions, it'll be even harder for the Knicks to score.
Odds: -110 (playable to -120)
Domantas Sabonis: Under 40.5 PRA
After early-season struggles, Sabonis is back to the player he was during the Kings' epic regular-season run last year. He's making an impact as a scorer, rebounder, and passer.
However, this number is simply too high. He's reached over 40 combined points, rebounds, and assists in his last two games, but he played an increased minutes load. In the Kings' last game against the Thunder, Sabonis recorded a triple-double and combined for 43 points, rebounds, and assists.
Expect his minutes to slightly decrease to around his season average of 35 per game, leading to a pedestrian stat line Monday night. Sabonis will struggle against the Cavaliers' tall, athletic frontcourt of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley.
Odds: -125 (playable to -140)
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @soshtry for more betting coverage.