Bet or Bail: Could Lakers, Suns, and Warriors miss the playoffs?
The Suns, Warriors, and Lakers had the second, third, and fourth-best odds, respectively, to win the West before the season. Roughly 40 games into the season, they hold the eighth, tenth, and 12th places in the conference.
With a little more than half of the season to go, we look at the impact of Tyrese Haliburton and Ja Morant's injuries, and answer one key question: Which of those three teams is the best bet to turn their year around, and who should we bail on?
Bet on the Suns
Although the Suns are eighth in the West, the talent is there. Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are the only teammates to average at least 26 points per game this season and may be the best scoring duo in the NBA. Bradley Beal is a great complementary piece, but his lack of availability has complicated the first few months of the Suns' season. That trio of Durant, Booker, and Beal has started only seven of the Suns' 38 games together.
Though Beal appears to be healthy, Phoenix lost two of its last three games at full strength. The Suns have 11 losses at home - the third most in the West - and are visibly frustrated during tough stretches.
The market still sees Phoenix as a contender, though, giving the team -250 odds to make the playoffs and +190 to miss them. Booker and Durant play a big part in that. The Suns also have the third-best odds to win the West (+650) and sixth-best to win the NBA Finals (+1200).
Bet on the Lakers
Los Angeles is 19-20 and sits 10th in the Western Conference. Here's the craziest part: LeBron James and Anthony Davis have missed a combined five games. A huge worry heading into the Lakers' season was James' age and Davis' durability. But the duo is offering consistent health and elite production, making L.A.'s below-.500 record concerning.
Fans applauded the Lakers' offseason additions, but none of their free-agent acquisitions have made a sizable impact. There's a reason Cam Reddish couldn't find time on the Knicks in 2022-23, the Heat let Gabe Vincent walk, and Christian Wood has been on eight teams in the last seven seasons.
As currently constructed, the team can't compete for a championship. They have the NBA's eighth-worst offensive rating, attempt the fewest threes, and are second-to-last in 3-point makes. They also average the third-fewest drives per game. It's not easy to score if a team can't shoot and rarely gets downhill.
Los Angeles hasn't been a particularly good shooting team in James' Lakers tenure, consistently relying on great defense instead. The Lakers had the fifth-best defensive rating during their playoff run last spring. Over the last 15 games - in which they have a 5-10 record - they're 19th in that category.
There's a decent chance the Lakers - +1100 (sixth-best) to win the West - make a trade before the Feb. 8 deadline. Whether it's for a star like Zach LaVine or just to flip role players, Los Angeles has a ways to go to get back to the postseason.
L.A. is -105 to make the playoffs and -125 to miss them. Despite all the aforementioned criticisms, it's worth betting on Los Angeles to make the playoffs at that price.
The Lakers currently qualify for the play-in tournament. Everyone saw them earn the seventh seed in last year's tourney and win November's In-Season Tournament. Would you bet against James in another win-or-go-home scenario?
Bail on the Warriors
Things are getting ugly in the Bay Area. After back-to-back blowout losses, the Warriors are 17-20 and in 12th place in the West. They're +190 to make the playoffs and -250 to miss them. All good things eventually fall, and it seems Golden State's dynasty has come to a swift and ugly end.
The Warriors' issues go way beyond Draymond Green's lack of self-control and Klay Thompson's inconsistent shooting. The Warriors are grappling with playing their struggling veterans or giving their youth a chance.
More specifically, should the team go with Jonathan Kuminga or Andrew Wiggins? When on the court at the same time, the pair posts a minus-23.7 net rating in minutes played.
Wiggins was vital in Golden State's 2022 championship run, but he's having the worst year of his career, both stats-wise and efficiency-wise. He's unplayable - but Steve Kerr keeps playing him.
Kuminga is apparently frustrated about his lack of playing time. Since the story broke last week, his minutes have increased and Wiggins' have declined. The Warriors have a 1.1 net rating with him on the court and a minus-3.5 with him off of it. However, playing him more won't catapult this team to the playoffs.
Even Green's return won't fix all of the Warriors' problems. Their offense remains subpar - though it improved slightly without him - and they've been significantly worse defensively during his suspension, even though Stephen Curry is still (mostly) playing at an elite level. The team once known for revolutionizing the 3-pointer is merely an average shooting team now.
Will the Warriors make a splashy, win-now trade or will they ride out this disastrous season and let some of their veterans go this summer? I'd bet the latter and bank on Golden State missing the playoffs.
Impact of Ja Morant, Tyrese Haliburton injuries
Bail on the Grizzlies, bet on Desmond Bane
After a 6-19 start in the wake of Ja Morant's suspension, it was an uphill climb for the Grizzlies. They were +1100 to make the postseason days before Morant returned. When he became available, though, Memphis strung together four consecutive wins and were down to +320 to make the playoffs. They're back up to +700 after Morant's injury effectively ended the Grizzlies' season.
This was a lost season in Memphis from the start and disaster struck around every corner. The team can now focus on earning a high draft pick and building toward next season with a young, talented roster in place.
Desmond Bane once again assumes some of the on-ball responsibilities he was tasked with through the first quarter of the campaign - especially with Marcus Smart out another six weeks. That could lead to a slight increase in assists for Bane, who was averaging 5.6 assists per game in November. Those numbers dipped slightly with Morant's return but could see an uptick again.
Bail on the Pacers without Haliburton
Tyrese Haliburton has been the engine, brake, and steering wheel behind the NBA's best offense. He leads the league with 12.5 assists per game and his pace, otherworldly vision, and scoring instinct have created a free-flowing, fast-paced, and wildly entertaining Pacers offense.
Haliburton injured his hamstring Monday night and, although he avoided serious injury, is expected to be sidelined for at least the next two weeks. The Pacers' offense certainly can't function at the level it has without him.
Indiana has a 6.4 net rating with Haliburton on the floor, but that number dips to minus-4 with him off the floor. That's by far the biggest on/off jump of any Pacer player.
In their first game without Haliburton, The Pacers scored 112 points in an eight-point win over the Wizards. That marked their lowest point total in three weeks against the league's worst defense.
T.J. McConnell and Andrew Nembhard will earn more minutes at point guard. McConnell, in particular, rarely looks to shoot and is a true pass-first point guard. He had eight assists in 24 minutes against the Wizards.
Obi Toppin's averaging career highs in minutes, points, and 3-point percentage. He's been the beneficiary of playing alongside Haliburton, who assists many of his corner/wing threes and transition looks. With a weaker driving threat, it's now easier to stay home on shooters like Toppin and Buddy Hield instead of sending help.
The Pacers rank first in pace and will continue to play fast, but it'll be more difficult without their star point guard. Bennedict Mathurin, who struggled against Washington, is now the primary offensive option. Indiana is still -330 to make the playoffs (76% implied probability), but it won't be the same team fans have grown accustomed to for the next few weeks.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.