Celtics vs. Pacers betting preview

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The Eastern Conference finals are set. The Celtics are the biggest favorite in a conference finals since the Warriors in 2017. Only four teams have had -1000 or shorter odds to win the conference finals in the last 35 years: the 1997 Bulls, 2016 Cavaliers, 2017 Warriors, and now the 2024 Celtics. The first three teams went on to win the title.

In other words, the Pacers have no chance, so let's explore some other bets in a likely short series.

How did we get here?

Boston has the easiest path to the NBA Finals in recent memory. The C's defeated a Heat team missing its best player and a Cavaliers squad that didn't have its starting center for the entire series and All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell for the final two games.

The Pacers, although healthy, don't pose much more of a challenge. Fluky conference finals runs are frequent in this parity era of the NBA, but the Pacers benefited from an abnormal amount of luck to get here.

Indiana has the NBA's best playoff offense and a below-average defense that was good enough to squeak by the Knicks in 7 games and the Bucks in six. Those opponents, however, weren't close to full strength: Former MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo missed the entire series for Milwaukee and Damian Lillard missed two games.

The Knicks, who were already missing Julius Randle, lost Bojan Bogdanovic and Mitchell Robinson in the opening round. They still led 2-0 against the Pacers before OG Anunoby's hamstring injury sidelined him. Then, in Game 6 with a 3-2 series lead, Josh Hart suffered an abdominal injury. He gutted it out for Game 7 but was visibly hurt. In Game 7, Jalen Brunson fractured his hand.

The Pacers are in the conference finals simply because the Knicks ran out of bodies.

How many games will it go?

Like every Celtics series so far this playoffs, the question isn't who will win, but how many games will it take.

The Celtics were the only team with a better offensive rating than the Pacers during the regular season. The difference is that the Celtics also had the second-best defensive rating, although this series should still produce some fast-paced, high-scoring showdowns.

Kristaps Porzingis, who's irreplaceable as a rim-protector and stretch big, will miss at least the first two games. Al Horford and Luke Kornet earned more minutes in the second round with Porzingis out.

The Cavs exposed Horford's weakness as a perimeter defender. The Pacers will attempt to put Horford in pick-and-roll actions, forcing the soon-to-be 38-year-old to guard. Boston might counter by implementing small lineups and limiting Horford's minutes to reduce fatigue. The Celtics have enough defensive prowess elsewhere to help the veteran.

Porzingis' absence could determine the outcome of a series against a Western Conference foe, but Boston is so rife with talent that it won't matter against Indiana.

After six conference finals appearances in the last eight years, the primary obstacles to the Celtics' quest to win a championship are late-game execution and unreliable closers. Those issues could cost Boston one game in this series, but the games would have to be close for that to happen. The Celtics are 8-2 this postseason, winning by an average margin of 18.5 points. The two games they lost were double-digit defeats. The Pacers are 10-point underdogs in Game 1.

Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are a nightmare defensive duo, and the Celtics' switchable defense is challenging for opposing guards. Tyrese Haliburton will struggle as a result. I'd wager on him to average fewer than 19.3 points per game throughout the series (-115). He's averaged 18.8 points this postseason and 15.8 points during four regular-season games against Boston.

Haliburton's naturally a pass-first point guard, not an aggressive scorer. Given Boston's ball pressure and ferocious point-of-attack defense, he's more likely to default to playmaking (he's -750 to lead the series in assists).

The Pacers have depth, they're an offensively efficient team, and they play fast. They shot 67% from the field in Game 7 against the Knicks, the best shooting performance in NBA playoff history (though that was partly due to New York's porous defense). Another otherworldly shooting night from Indiana could earn it a victory against Boston, like when the Heat shot 53% from three in Game 2 to upset the Celtics.

Throughout Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum's playoff tenure, the Celtics have tended to lose focus for at least one game in a series against an inferior opponent, especially at home. The Pacers have enough firepower to make the Celtics pay when that happens.

Even so, for the third straight series, the Celtics will wrap it up in five and advance to their second NBA Finals in the last three years.

Pick: Celtics in 5 (+215)

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.