NBA Finals betting: Odds, storylines, and player markets
The stage is set for an exciting NBA Finals between the Celtics and Mavericks. Boston has the better team, but Dallas has the best player. Each group took different paths to earn their spot in the championship series.
The Celtics kept their group intact since the start of the season and cruised past a depleted and subpar Eastern Conference. The Mavs replenished at the trade deadline, surrounding Luka Doncic with the best supporting cast he's played with. Dallas entered the conference semifinals and finals as underdogs but outplayed its competition to come out of a deep and supremely talented Western Conference.
Dallas is an underdog against the almighty Celtics, who check every statistical box as a historically great team.
Series odds
| Celtics | Mavericks |
|---|---|
| -210 | +175 |
We'll have a complete series preview with our best bets next week, but let's look at some of the storylines and markets.
Only one of their regular-season showdowns came after the trade deadline when the Celtics won 138-110, but that was before Dallas' defense soared to the top of the league. Derrick Jones Jr. and Daniel Gafford only played seven minutes and six minutes, respectively. Jones and Gafford are now starters, and Jones will likely start as Jayson Tatum's primary defender.
The Celtics are 6.5-point home favorites in Game 1 with the total at 214.5.
A popular market is NBA Finals MVP, where Tatum is unsurprisingly the favorite.
NBA Finals MVP odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | -115 |
| Luka Doncic | +205 |
| Jaylen Brown | +650 |
| Kyrie Irving | +2200 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | +3500 |
| Derrick White | +3500 |
| Jrue Holiday | +5000 |
The Celtics are favorites so, naturally, five of the seven odds leaders play for Boston. Although Jaylen Brown won Eastern Conference finals MVP, Tatum is universally recognized as the Celtics' best player.
Boston's success is more team-dependent than the Mavs. The Mavs can't win the Finals if Doncic plays poorly. The Celtics can overcome Tatum's struggles and still win the championship.
If you think the Mavs will win the series, it's wise to take Doncic to win Finals MVP at +205 rather than the Mavs at +175. There's no scenario where Dallas wins and Doncic isn't the MVP.
Because of Boston's team approach, there's value down the board in targeting a secondary player like Brown or Derrick White.
Player markets
Rivalries, redemption, and first chances at glory are some of the storylines to follow throughout the Finals, many of which are reflected in betting markets. Here are some player props to explore:
| Points leader | Threes leader | Rebounds leader | Assists leaders |
|---|---|---|---|
| Doncic (-205) | Doncic (+100) | Tatum (-150) | Doncic (-700) |
| Tatum (+270) | White (+250) | Doncic (+180) | Tatum (+1200) |
| Irving (+1000) | Tatum (+500) | Porzingis (+1000) | Irving (+1600) |
| Brown (+1500) | Irving (+700) | Lively (+1400) | White (+1800) |
| Porzingis (+5000) | Porzingis (+2000) | Gafford (+2500) | Holiday (+2000) |
Kyrie Irving doesn't like Boston, and Boston doesn't like Irving. Both sides have made that abundantly clear and will surely express it throughout the Finals. Irving's two seasons playing for the Celtics disappointed fans, and his time there ended miserably. However, he's been monumental to the Mavs' success, acting as a perfect sidekick who can still play the lead role when Doncic heads to the bench.
He's averaging 22.8 points and 5.2 assists on 42% shooting from three, his best scoring playoffs since 2017. Against the Timberwolves' length and swarming defense, Irving poured in 27 points per game. Irving should be extra motivated to perform in Boston as the crowd continuously heckles him.
Irving's series points per game prop is 24.1, and his assists per game prop is 4.6. Although Minnesota's defense didn't present a challenge, the Celtics have a switchable lineup and tough perimeter defenders to throw at Irving, including White and Jrue Holiday. The Celtics had the NBA's second-best defensive rating in the regular season, and it's even better in the postseason.
Irving isn't the only starter facing his former team. Kristaps Porzingis had a three-year stint in Dallas plagued by injuries before he was shipped to the Wizards and later Boston. Porzingis and Doncic never found a rhythm together, which could be in the back of Doncic's mind as he hunts switches.
Porzingis could be the X-factor in this series. The Latvian center hasn't played since the opening round with a calf injury. He's expected to return for the Finals. Porzingis stretches the floor as an elite post player who can knock down threes. But he's more important defensively as a rim-protector capable of switching onto guards.
The Mavs targeted Rudy Gobert and other Minnesota bigs in the pick-and-roll. Al Horford is too old and slow to play major minutes against Dallas' pick-and-roll-heavy attack. Porzingis must be healthy and return to his regular-season form for Boston to win.
His series points per game prop is 15.4, the third-highest among Celtics players, and his rebounds per game prop is at 6.3.
Tatum's last and only trip to the Finals in 2022 was marred by disappointment. He averaged 21 points, seven assists, and six rebounds on inefficient shooting. The five-time All-Star has a chance for redemption against the Mavs. His points per game prop is 27.2.
With a week hiatus until the Finals tip off June 6, there's plenty of time to explore the markets and cash in on basketball's biggest stage.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.