NBA Finals MVP odds: Will anyone besides Doncic or Tatum win?
When an NBA champion is crowned, the winning team is gifted the Larry O'Brien Trophy. Then, the Bill Russell MVP Trophy is handed to the most impactful player on the victorious squad, voted on by a selected panel of media members.
The Finals MVP often becomes a contentious debate topic as the series winds down. It's usually handed out to the best player, but there have been instances when a team's star struggled and the award went to a role player, like when Andre Iguodala won it over Steph Curry in 2015.
The Celtics and Mavs have two completely different approaches to offense. Boston spaces the floor, shoots threes at a high rate, and moves the ball to incorporate all five starters. Dallas relies on a heliocentric system, running constant ball screens for Luka Doncic, who can create for himself or find his open teammates.
Doncic has played off the ball more since Kyrie Irving's arrival, but he still led the league in usage rate during the regular season, and his career usage rate is 35.6, the highest in NBA history.
These contrasting styles mean betting on the Finals MVP should vary depending on which team you expect to win the title.
Finals MVP odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | -120 |
| Luka Doncic | +200 |
| Jaylen Brown | +600 |
| Kyrie Irving | +1400 |
| Derrick White | +2800 |
| Jrue Holiday | +5000 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | +5000 |
The Celtics are -220 favorites, meaning oddsmakers give Boston a 68.8% chance of becoming champions. That explains why five of the top seven MVP candidates are Celtics players.
But most of the public disagrees with oddsmakers, as most bets have been placed on the Mavs to win the title. As of Wednesday, 85% of the bets and 75% of the handle are on Dallas at theScore Bet and ESPN Bet.
Doncic is the Mavs' only choice
I'm backing the Celtics to win the NBA Finals. However, if you disagree, there's only one choice for Finals MVP.
It's improbable that the Mavs will win the NBA title without Doncic winning MVP. Thus, if you want to back the Mavs, bet on Doncic to win Finals MVP at +200 rather than the Mavs to win at +180.
Dallas' offensive attack is so reliant on Doncic that it can't afford a poor series from him. Even if his scoring dips or he shoots inefficiently, the attention he commands as a uniquely gifted offensive talent creates openings for his teammates.
Doncic leads the Mavs in points, rebounds, and assists. The whole operation falls apart if he struggles.
The Celtics can overcome a bad Jayson Tatum series because of their deep cast of weapons. They run various actions for players other than Tatum, including Kristaps Porzingis post-ups, Derrick White pick-and-rolls, and Jaylen Brown isolations. But the Mavs can't overcome a subpar Doncic series.
The only case for the Mavs to win the Finals is that they have the best player in the series, and maybe the world. Doncic's heroics - particularly in clutch situations - have guided the Mavs to their first NBA Finals since 2011. If they finish the job, it'll be Doncic hoisting two trophies.
Why a Celtics role player could earn MVP
Although Brown won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP, Tatum is considered the Celtics' best player and invites the toughest defensive matchup. He has a 54% implied probability of winning the award.
Tatum has sacrificed his scoring for the greater good, averaging his fewest field goal attempts since 2020. As the prohibitive favorite to win Finals MVP on a team that spreads the wealth offensively, there's no reason to bet on him.
Plus, Boston needs Tatum to take shifts guarding Doncic (Brown will start as Doncic's primary defender), which will require a ton of defensive energy. When Tatum's focus becomes shutting down Doncic, it could take away from his offense.
Porzingis - and his health - will play an enormous role in determining the series, but White could steal the headlines. He's not too far behind Tatum and Brown in scoring or shot attempts this postseason. He also leads the team in 3-point makes and consistently has easier matchups, leading to scoring opportunities.
Doncic or Irving will be stuck on White for most of the series as Dallas' best defenders guard Tatum and Brown. That's a matchup the Celtics should exploit. Doncic and Irving expend so much energy offensively that they're often liabilities defensively, especially Doncic.
White can operate in the pick-and-roll, create shots for his teammates, catch and shoot off the ball, and effectively get to the rim. He has virtually no flaws in his game and has played his role perfectly all season.
Tatum or Brown will likely earn Finals MVP if the Celtics win, but with the Celtics' distribution of talent, it's worth dipping down the oddsboard and backing White.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.