What the odds say: Where will Paul George play next season?
Paul George is the biggest free agency domino of the NBA offseason. The 34-year-old has three options: sign an extension with the Clippers, decline his player option and enter free agency, or opt into his player option and request a trade.
The first option seemed likely when the Clippers went 13-2 in January and looked like a formidable contender. But Los Angeles faded, and injuries derailed a once-promising season.
The Kawhi Leonard and George experiment has been a massive failure. Since the Clippers acquired Leonard and George in 2019, they made it out of the second round once and haven't advanced past the first round since 2021, primarily due to injuries. Leonard missed the entire 2021-22 season with a torn ACL and sat multiple games in the Clippers' 2023 and 2024 first-round series with knee injuries.
Before an unusually healthy 2023-24 campaign, George hadn't played more than 56 games in a season since 2018-19.
Whether it's his age, injury history, or inconsistent playoff performances, Los Angeles is reluctant to sign George to a long-term max contract.
The Clippers signed Leonard to a three-year extension for less than the max and expect George to take a similar discount to stay in L.A.
But the nine-time All-Star wants the Clippers to pay him what he's worth on the open market. The two sides will stay at a stalemate until one budges and closes the gap between what George commands and what the Clippers are willing to pay him.
That's led to speculation regarding where George could play next season if he doesn't come to an agreement with Los Angeles. Here are George's next team odds available at certain betting markets:
Paul George's next team odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Clippers | -280 |
| Sixers | +500 |
| Thunder | +500 |
| Magic | +700 |
| Warriors | +700 |
| Knicks | +1500 |
| Lakers | +1800 |
George is from Los Angeles, and his immediate family lives there. Would he leave the city in the final years of his career? Would the Clippers let him walk?
Oddsmakers believe both answers are no, giving George a 73% probability of remaining with the Clippers.
Although Los Angeles is uncomfortable offering George more than Leonard's three-year, $152-million deal, the club can't afford to lose its second-best player. The franchise is moving into a new arena next season and wants to compete for championships.
Beyond the contract issue, Leonard's health has consistently put George in precarious playoff situations, forcing him to carry a heavy load he's incapable of in the postseason.
George's decision comes down to his priorities: Money? Lifestyle? A ring?
If money and competing for a championship trump everything else, George's obvious landing spot is the Sixers. Reports earlier in June indicated Philadelphia was eager to acquire the six-time All-NBAer.
The Sixers also have cap space to sign George to a max contract and desperately need a third star for a deep playoff run to maximize Joel Embiid's championship window. George's skill set as a prolific wing scorer allows him to thrive in a complementary role while masking as the primary option in certain situations.
George and the Sixers are a match made in basketball heaven between a player and an organization trying to shed the label of playoff sellouts. Despite his injury history and age, the Sixers should throw everything they can at George.
If he leaves Los Angeles, representing the City of Brotherly Love in his twilight years seems like the most reasonable option.
An increasingly likely avenue is for George to opt into his $48-million option and request a trade - similar to what James Harden did last year when he forced his way to the Clippers. This would expand the pool of potential suitors by allowing teams with limited cap space to obtain George.
The Knicks and Warriors have been floated as possible destinations. New York, however, has remained patient when dealing with potential star trades. Taking a swing on an aging George when it would likely have to exchange Julius Randle would be uncharacteristic of the Knicks' front office.
Golden State has limited time to win another championship with 36-year-old Steph Curry. After missing out on the playoffs last season, the Warriors need to reshape their roster to give Curry a last chance at his fifth ring. Pairing him with George seems like a logical solution. But Golden State can't mortgage its future by getting rid of budding stars like Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski.
Facilitating a trade between two win-now clubs is difficult. It could get messy if George decides to opt in and request out.
The Clippers remain the favorite, but the two sides may be headed for a breakup if they stand pat in negotiations.
We'll better understand George's thinking in the coming days, as he has until Saturday to opt in or out of his player option. From there, it shouldn't be long before George's next destination is determined, potentially shifting the league's balance of power.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.