West win totals: Contenders, longshots, and teams eager to draft

Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet

The Rockets won 41 games last year and finished 11th in the conference, the best record for an 11th seed in NBA history. That's how deep the West is, and the Grizzlies and Spurs weren't even a factor. Thirteen of the 15 teams in the conference could vie for a playoff spot this season, so here are our tiers based on win totals and our lean for each team:

• Contenders

• Longshots

• Sorry, the West is too good this year

• Is the draft here yet?

Contenders

Oklahoma City Thunder

Sam Presti stayed patient and brilliantly built a contender by stockpiling picks and making timely trades and acquisitions. The Thunder missed the playoffs in 2022-23 and then earned the No. 1 seed in 2023-24 on the heels of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's MVP-caliber campaign, Jalen Williams' emergence, and Chet Holmgren's immediate impact in his first season.

Oklahoma City traded for Alex Caruso and signed Isaiah Hartenstein (although he's out five to six weeks with a broken hand) to help the league's third-worst rebounding unit, and it has a deep bench to complement their stars, making the franchise the favorite to win the West.

Bet: Over 56.5 wins

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves shipped Karl-Anthony Towns to New York in exchange for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo, but Minnesota ultimately improved. DiVincenzo is one of the league's best 3-point shooters, and Randle is a secondary playmaker and three-level scorer. Naz Reid can also fill the void Towns left behind. Reid is a 41% 3-point shooter who averaged 17.3 points and 6.5 boards last season.

Oh, and Anthony Edwards will continue his climb as one of the NBA's brightest young stars.

Bet: Over 51.5 wins

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets are doing a disservice to the NBA's best player, Nikola Jokic. The franchise had key pieces leave in consecutive offseasons, Jamal Murray is an unreliable co-star, and Michael Porter Jr. consistently disappears despite his incredible talent.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who was the Nuggets' best catch-and-shoot shooter, departed in free agency, and the addition of Russell Westbrook will only exacerbate their 3-point shooting woes.

Bet: Under 50.5 wins

Dallas Mavericks

Fresh off an NBA Finals run, the Mavericks added valuable pieces to their core. Klay Thompson will fit in seamlessly alongside Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, while Naji Marshall and Quentin Grimes are underrated additions.

Doncic and Irving figured out how to coexist on the way to 50 wins last season and should improve on that with a better roster surrounding them.

Bet: Over 50.5 wins

Longshots

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies suffered one catastrophic injury after another last season, resulting in a whopping 33 players taking the court for them throughout the campaign. But before last year's disaster, Memphis enjoyed back-to-back 50-win seasons. A hungry (and hopefully disciplined) Ja Morant should return to the path to superstardom alongside Jaren Jackson, Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, and rookie center Zach Edey. While 3-point shooting could be an issue, Memphis has too much talent to miss another postseason.

Bet: Over 47.5 wins

Phoenix Suns

The Suns shot the sixth-fewest threes last season despite ranking fifth in 3-point percentage, but Phoenix is attempting and making the sixth most in the preseason. New coach Mike Budenholzer is implementing a different offensive philosophy that should empower the Suns.

A bet on Phoenix is a bet on health. Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal dealt with various injuries last season that limited their ability to play together. But I'm willing to bet on the health risk. Plus, Tyus Jones will assume point guard responsibilities, which raises the Suns' ceiling.

Bet: Over 47.5 wins, To win the west +1200

Sacramento Kings

The Kings had the league's best offense in 2022-23, but it was merely average last season as Sacramento won 46 games and missed the playoffs. DeMar DeRozan's presence brings a new dynamic to a talented roster featuring De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Keegan Murray, and others. I don't see the Kings regressing.

Bet: Over 45.5 wins

New Orleans Pelicans

Zion Williamson is entering his prime and appears to be in the best shape of his life, but the Pelicans haven't put the right pieces around him. They have too many guards who play a similar style and no starting-caliber big. Dejounte Murray was a solid addition, but the Brandon Ingram situation - he's on an expiring contract and a trade could be inevitable - might derail New Orleans' season one year after winning 49 games.

Bet: Under 45.5 wins, miss the playoffs +135

Sorry, the West is too good this year

Golden State Warriors

Steph Curry must have an MVP-caliber season for the Warriors to make the postseason and be considered a contender. But Curry can't do it alone. Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski must take leaps as scorers to help alleviate the pressure. Despite losing Thompson, Golden State had a solid offseason, signing Buddy Hield, De'Anthony Melton, and Kyle Anderson.

Bet: Over 43.5 wins, make the playoffs -105

Houston Rockets

The Rockets are so deep that talented players who would contribute to other teams will be left out of Houston's rotation. Alperen Sengun emerged as a terrific playmaking big, but Jalen Green - a potential franchise cornerstone - had his best stretch when Sengun was injured. The two must find a way to coexist and complement each other. Houston also has the capital to make a major splash this season if need be.

Bet: Pass

Los Angeles Lakers

The injury-prone Anthony Davis and aging LeBron James each played more than 70 games last year, but the Lakers only won 47 times. While the franchise made no roster improvements, first-time head coach J.J. Redick should infuse some life into Los Angeles with a new offensive style. The team should win fewer games than last season, but I'm not willing to bet on a five-loss decline.

Bet: Over 42.5 wins, make the playoffs -105

Los Angeles Clippers

Stop me if you've heard this before. Kawhi Leonard is injured and out indefinitely. Ty Lue should get the most out of this group, but, eventually, there's no water left to squeeze out of a wet rag.

While the Clippers have an underrated cast of role players, there isn't enough star talent and James Harden is in decline.

Bet: Under 35.5 wins

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs accelerated their timeline and immediately improved their roster after Victor Wembanyama surpassed sky-high expectations in his rookie year. If Wembanyama takes another step offensively - he's already the most valuable defensive player - San Antonio will compete for a playoff spot. But a 15-game win increase seems a little much in a conference as competitive as the West.

Bet: Under 36.5 wins

Is the draft here yet?

Utah Jazz

The Jazz will eventually contend for a playoff spot. But not this year.

While Utah won 31 games last season, it would behoove the franchise to lose more and enter the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes.

Bet: Under 27.5 wins

Portland Blazers

The Blazers won 21 games last year, fewer than any team in the West. Aside from Anfernee Simons, there aren't too many exciting young pieces worth buying stock in, but that could change after next year's draft.

Bet: Under 21.5 wins

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.