NBA championship odds: Are Celtics overvalued as favorites to repeat?

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The NBA season is just one day away as the hunt for the Larry O'Brien Trophy begins with more contenders in the picture than usual. There hasn't been a back-to-back champion since the Warriors in 2018, but the Celtics are overwhelming favorites to return to glory.

Bettors agree with the odds. Boston has attracted the most bets to win the NBA Finals and cement itself as an all-time great team. Here are the most bet teams to win the championship, and the percentage of bets they've received:

• Celtics (15%)
• Thunder (11%)
• Knicks (8%)
• 76ers (6%)
• Mavericks (6%)
• Nuggets (6%)

The most-popular-bets list is identical to the actual oddsboard, with three of the top four favorites being in the East.

NBA Championship odds

The East has more defined tiers with only three or four legitimate championship contenders. However, the West is more chaotic and unpredictable with a hoist of teams that could emerge as conference champs.

It's fair to wonder whether oddsmakers and bettors are overvaluing the Celtics, who have a 25% implied probability of winning another ring. The Thunder have the next-best probability at 12%.

Boston was a historically great team last season based on certain advanced metrics. The club also went 16-3 in the playoffs with a uniquely talented starting five that redefined what a high-volume 3-point shooting team looks like. But that doesn't tell the entire picture.

The Celtics beat up on a poor and hobbled Eastern Conference, and they didn't face any of the best regular-season teams. Should they really have shorter title odds than last season in an improved Eastern Conference?

Kristaps Porzingis is also out for the first few months of the campaign. Al Horford brilliantly stepped up in the big man's absence last season and during the playoffs - the Celtics went 30-5 without Porzingis - but the 38-year-old hasn't played more than 31 minutes per game once over the past six campaigns. Joe Mazzulla and his staff will get creative, including playing Jayson Tatum at center, but things won't be as seamless without Porzingis.

Three of the Celtics' four most important players - Tatum, Jrue Holiday, and Derrick White - are coming off an Olympic run over the summer after playing until mid-June. There could be lingering effects. (However, Tatum and Jaylen Brown should have increased motivation after being benched during the Olympics and snubbed from the team, respectively.)

Finally, Boston's toughest challengers improved. The Knicks created a starting five that could rival Boston's by acquiring Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns, while the Sixers assembled the league's best trio when they signed Paul George to accompany Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. Neither team is as far behind the Celtics as the odds indicate.

Out West, the Thunder emerged as Western Conference favorites by addressing positions of need to complement their proven core of young stars. Isaiah Hartenstein will help last season's third-worst rebounding group, while Alex Caruso is a shooting and defensive upgrade over Josh Giddey. Expect another step forward from an Oklahoma City team that earned the 1-seed and a trip to the Western Conference semifinals.

The Timberwolves' title odds slightly improved after a bold trade that shipped off franchise cornerstone Karl-Anthony Towns for Donte DiVincenzo and Julius Randle. Meanwhile, the Mavs made strides in free agency by acquiring Klay Thompson and other solid depth pieces a season after making the NBA Finals.

The Nuggets got worse but are still in the mix with the NBA's best player in Nikola Jokic, and teams like the Grizzlies and Suns have the talent to emerge as dark-horse contenders.

Whether it's one of the contenders in the East or finding value down the board out West, there's no shortage of options to wager on outside of the overvalued Celtics.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.