NBA Bet or Bail: Rookie of the Year race, Jokic MVP case
Every week, Bet or Bail will explore players, teams, storylines, and markets throughout the NBA landscape.
McCain, Knecht leading ROY race
The first few weeks of the season prove that nobody - not even front-office executives and expert scouts - is immune to oversight when evaluating and drafting prospects. Even in a draft labeled the worst in modern NBA history, the two most impressive rookies slipped out of the lottery.
Jared McCain fell to the Sixers at No. 16, and Dalton Knecht dropped to the Lakers at No. 17. There were obvious concerns - McCain's size and Knecht's age - but neither were unheralded prospects who slipped through the cracks. Knecht and McCain were college stars for Tennessee and Duke, respectively.
How did these guys tumble in a weak draft class? Well, front office personnel must answer to their owners after the two rookies made certain organizations look like fools.
McCain is the Rookie of the Year favorite (+130) after entering the season way down the board at +3000.
While the Sixers deal with more dramatic episodes than a reality TV show, McCain has benefitted from the chaos. He's earned opportunities in Tyrese Maxey and Paul George's absence, and to say he's made the most of it would be an understatement. He leads all rookies in points (15.6 per game) while shooting over 40% from three.
The Duke product understands the nuances of the game - relocating as a shooter, passing angles, playmaking chops - at a far greater level than most 20-year-old rookies. He has the most points by a rookie in his first four starts in NBA history, passing Sixer alum Allen Iverson.
Sixers head coach Nick Nurse has no choice but to give him extended minutes even as the team gets healthier at guard. McCain earned the start alongside Maxey, George, and Joel Embiid in the Big Three's debut Wednesday night.
Philadelphia has the NBA's worst record at 2-12. This franchise with a perpetual dark cloud hanging over it doesn't have many signs of optimism, but McCain has been the lone bright spot and a potential future building block in an otherwise harrowing season.
On the other coast, another overlooked rookie is shining with an increased role. Knecht played sporadically in the first two weeks and barely produced in the scoring column. He was +2500 to win Rookie of the Year in mid-November after starting the season at +1400. But JJ Redick entrusted his rookie sniper by inserting him into the starting lineup.
The Tennessee product is averaging 23.8 points in the four games since, and he's shooting 46% from three on the season. Knecht's career-high 37-point outing Tuesday night led to the sharpshooter skyrocketing up the Rookie of the Year ladder. He now has the second-best odds at +215.
McCain has better on-ball playmaking skills than Knecht, but the latter is a more prolific shooter. However, the Sixers guard is shooting 44% on catch-and-shoot attempts. Opportunity is everything in a Rookie of the Year race as open as this one, and Knecht and McCain have earned theirs.
Bet on Jokic's MVP candidacy, Bail on the Nuggets
The best way to define someone's value is to see how a system operates when that person is absent. The Nuggets won five in a row before Nikola Jokic left the team for personal reasons. Since then, they've lost two of their past three.
Furthermore, the Nuggets outscore opponents by 11.3 points per 100 possessions when Jokic is on the floor. Opponents outscore Denver by 14.9 points per 100 possessions when he's off the court, per NBA advanced stats. In simpler terms, the Nuggets are the league's second-best team with Jokic (based on net rating) and the NBA's worst team without him. Jokic leads the league in player impact estimate.
Of course, the MVP award is not gifted solely on a player's value. Otherwise, LeBron James would have a house full of them. Narrative, counting stats, and team success are weighed in voters' decisions.
Jokic, who has won three of the past four MVPs, had only the third-best odds (+460) entering this season despite his undeniable status as the league's best player. Voter fatigue likely seemed to interfere with his chances of winning.
But he's averaging career-highs in points (29.7), rebounds (13.7), assists (11.7), and 3-point percentage (56%). He's currently the favorite to win MVP at +220. Jokic's impact is too obvious that he might overcome voters' reluctance to give him his fourth trophy (James was the last player to win four in five years from 2009 to 2013).
In all that lies the Nuggets' problem: Jokic has to do too much. Jamal Murray, Jokic's co-star during their 2023 Finals run, has seemingly fallen off a cliff. He's having the worst statistical season of his career and isn't a reliable second option.
Denver let two key pieces from its championship team walk in free agency - Bruce Brown in 2023 and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope last summer. Christian Braun is having a career season, but the Nuggets don't have enough talent surrounding Jokic. They average the third-fewest bench points and attempt the third-fewest threes. Adding Russell Westbrook - a career 30% 3-point shooter - didn't exactly solve their shooting woes.
The Nuggets are 8-5 and have the third-best odds to win the West. Jokic, averaging 14 more touches per game than any other season, can carry them to a top seed - and win the MVP in the process - but the Nuggets won't return to the Finals without reliable parts around him.
Don't bail on the East yet
An NBA civil war is brewing between the East and the West. A recent ESPN report outlined a possible battle for secession among certain West teams to break free to the easier Eastern Conference when NBA expansion arrives.
The West is 41-22 against the East. Only four East teams are above .500 and the Heat, who are in fifth place at 6-7, would be 13th in the West.
The West has been the deeper conference for years. The Rockets finished 11th at 41-41 last season, the best record by an No. 11 seed in NBA history.
But there's reason to be optimistic about the East's outlook. No, they won't be as deep as the West anytime soon, but the East's overall record should improve as teams get healthier.
For starters, the defending champion Celtics still reside in the East and are the favorites to repeat. The Cavaliers' leap has made them legit contenders after becoming the fourth team in NBA history to start 15-0. The Knicks started slow but have won four straight to get over .500 and will only improve defensively once Mitchell Robinson returns. The Magic have weathered the storm without Paolo Banchero, winning seven of their past eight thanks to Franz Wagner's emergence. Orlando could be a real contender when Banchero returns.
As for the bottom of the conference, it's hard to imagine the Sixers, who have the NBA's worst record, getting any worse. They're still -220 to make the playoffs for some reason and should soar up the standings in the coming months once they're healthy and their stars accumulate reps together.
The Bucks are 6-9 but have won four of their past five after an abysmal start, and Khris Middleton should make his season debut soon. The Pacers should also improve after a rocky start. While Western Conference teams envy their conference counterparts, don't count out the East as a formidable conference just yet.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.