The perfect tank? The Raptors are overachieving and still losing
A month ago, I told you the Raptors were in for an ugly and forgettable November. All-Star Scottie Barnes had just landed on Toronto's injury report, and the already shorthanded club was staring down a brutal schedule. In the end, the Raptors managed to prove me wrong while also managing to lose 11 of 15 games. You might call it the perfect tank.
Through the season's first quarter, the Raptors have accomplished the rare feat of simultaneously overperforming and playing .250 basketball. Toronto's 5-15 record (and 60-loss pace) doesn't do its collective effort and overall competitiveness justice. The team's 13-7 record against the spread tells more of the story for a squad that's been expected to lose every game in the eyes of oddsmakers.
To give you an idea of how competitive the Raptors have been while continuing to pile up losses, consider that Toronto's won more quarters than it's lost while losing 15 of 20 games. They boasted a better November point differential than the season's biggest overachiever (Nets), but won three fewer games than Brooklyn. Toronto's lost two games at the buzzer, which is the same amount of buzzer-beating losses the 29 other teams have combined for this season.
One of those excruciating last-second defeats came on the road in Boston, where the Raptors on the second night of a back-to-back went blow for blow with the defending champs. That shorthanded but ultimately unsuccessful effort was a perfect microcosm of the season for a team that's lost the second-most value to injury. The Raptors' intended starting lineup of Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, Gradey Dick, RJ Barrett, and Jakob Poeltl is yet to play a game together, and Toronto's been without multiple starters in 14 of 20 contests.
What's most promising about the Raptors' start, especially in comparison to the aforementioned Nets, is that it's mostly been fueled by young players who'll form the foundation of Toronto's future.
The steady presence of veteran center Poeltl can't be overstated, but the team's compete level so far can also be attributed to positive developments in Barrett's playmaking, Dick's scoring, Ochai Agbaji's shooting and defense, and various contributions from four rookies. The undrafted - and unflappable - Jamison Battle, along with second-round rookies Jonathan Mogbo and Jamal Shead all rank top 20 in rookie minutes, while first-round rookie Ja'Kobe Walter's been a positive addition to the starting lineup the last two games.
Most importantly, a bespectacled Barnes is finding his footing since returning from a broken orbital bone. Barnes has been inefficient but forceful on offense, while playing arguably the best defense of his career. His presence has been a key component of what's been a top-10 defense over the last couple weeks.
Predictably, the Raptors' collective youth and inexperience is also a contributing factor in their turning so many of their quality efforts into quality losses. For example, the Raptors turn the ball over on 16.2% of their possessions and give up 20.7 points per game off those turnovers, tied for the league's third-worst mark.
Quickley's eventual return from an elbow injury (which he sustained shortly after returning from a hip injury, which came after returning from a wrist injury ...) should help remedy some of those turnover issues. As the team's lone self-creating 3-point shooter, Quickley should also help juice the team's shooting numbers. The Raptors own the league's lowest 3-point attempt rate (35.2% of all field-goal attempts), which leaves them with a daunting math problem.
Aside from that dearth of shooting, head coach Darko Rajakovic's offensive process has been positive, even if the results haven't been. A league-leading offensive rebound rate helps Toronto win the possession battle most nights, and the team's speed, passing, and cutting have helped it create plenty of easy opportunities in transition, in the paint, and at the rim.
Raptors' offense | Rank |
---|---|
Rim frequency | 3rd |
Points In Paint | 2nd |
Fast-break PTS | 3rd |
3PAr | 30th |
Location eFG% | 6th |
(Stats courtesy NBA.com and Cleaning The Glass)
Rajakovic has made a couple head-scratching decisions in crunch time, but at the macro level, the second-year coach is striking the right balance between keeping a young, losing team upbeat and engaged while still holding it accountable.
That big-picture view is what Raptors fans can take solace in right now, but credit this team for making it easy to find silver linings in a 5-15 start. With the toughest stretch of their schedule out of the way and the Eastern Conference being what it is - a dumpster fire - don't leave the Raptors for dead just yet.
Joseph Casciaro is theScore's lead Raptors and NBA reporter.