Boosted lottery odds not worth another Barnes injury
It's deja vu for the Toronto Raptors, who are preparing for their lone All-Star to miss several weeks for the second time this season.
Officially, the Raptors said Scottie Barnes' sprained right ankle will be re-evaluated in one week. He suffered the injury Monday, just 10 games into his return from an orbital fracture that sidelined him for 11 games (24 days).
As Toronto once again prepares for life without Barnes, the questions and silver linings are much the same as last time. The team's upcoming schedule isn't as daunting as the stretch that saw it go 2-9 without Barnes, but the losses will continue to pile up for a 7-18 squad if this proves to be another extended absence. And plenty of draft lottery-obsessed Raptors fans will celebrate that fact.
In addition, RJ Barrett will get more reps as a lead creator, Gradey Dick will be promoted in the offensive pecking order, and rookie Ja'Kobe Walter should get to explore the limits of his improving off-the-dribble game. All of those can be positives for a rebuilding team that's prioritizing the big picture.
But Barnes remains the foundation of that rebuild, and the Raptors have played too many games without him when they need to gather intel on how all the pieces fit around their franchise player. Barnes' last three injuries have been caused by rotten luck rather than an injury-prone body - a teammate accidentally kicking his hand, an elbow to the eye, and landing on an opponent's foot - so concerns about his durability aren't valid. Still, there's no glossing over the fact he'll have played just 14 NBA games over the last 10 months if he's sidelined through December.
None of that will matter if the Raptors strike lottery gold and add a player like Cooper Flagg or Dylan Harper to an already promising Barnes-led core. But even the worst teams only have a 14% chance of winning the lottery, and the absolute worst team still has a better chance of picking fifth (47.86%) than it does of landing a top-three pick (40.17%). Mathematically speaking, Barnes' injury-riddled campaign is unlikely to benefit the Raptors the way some assume it will. The trade-off is Barnes losing valuable time and much-needed reps as the lead dog while hitting the shelf again in the midst of his finest defensive stretch as a pro.
Barnes is also averaging career highs in points (20.6), rebounds (8.4), assists (7.4), and steals (1.3) while playing fewer minutes than ever.
Toronto's running out of time to see if this year's squad is worth building on. The Raptors have been surprisingly competitive despite a litany of injuries. They've won more quarters than they've lost and share the league's second-best record against the spread despite being 11 games under .500 overall. In their last two losses, the Raptors outscored the contending Mavericks and Knicks by a combined 15 points in 60 minutes with Barnes on the court (and lost the 36 non-Barnes minutes by 27 points).
The way the Raptors have competed teases the potential for something more at full strength. But their presumed starting lineup of Barnes, Barrett, Dick, Immanuel Quickley, and Jakob Poeltl hasn't been available once this season. The Raptors have also been without multiple starters in 17 of 25 contests, and they have yet to play more than two straight games with even four of their five starters in the lineup.
That aforementioned starting five has logged four minutes together dating back to last season, and the trio of Barnes, Barrett, and Quickley hasn't shared the court since March 1. By the time Barnes returns, the trade deadline could be a month away, and Poeltl will be a hot commodity. Is there a big enough sample to decide whether the veteran center should continue playing with this young core or be sold to the highest bidder? These are the uncomfortable questions that arise when a roster's been decimated by injury.
For all the positives to be found in this young team's losing season, it would still be a shame to come out of it never knowing what these Raptors would have been capable of when whole.
The boosted lottery odds are nice, but the draw is still a game of chance. Barnes' latest injury has sidelined the one Raptor who's already a sure thing.
Joseph Casciaro is theScore's lead Raptors and NBA reporter.