NBA Bet or Bail: Bucks' resurgence, Pritchard's 6th man candidacy

Every week, Bet or Bail will explore players, teams, storylines, and markets throughout the NBA landscape.

Pritchard emerges as Sixth Man of the Year favorite

Payton Pritchard shouldn't be this good. Only 10 NBA players are listed shorter than the 6-foot-1 Pritchard, whose breakout season has led to him becoming the prohibitive favorite (-275) to win the Sixth Man of the Year award after not cracking oddsmaker's top-15 preseason candidates. Amen Thompson (+1200), De'Andre Hunter (+1500), and Buddy Hield (+2800) are also in contention.

Pritchard has shot a remarkable 43% from deep while making the fifth-most threes in the NBA, more than Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, and All-NBA teammate Jayson Tatum.

The fifth-year veteran's scoring average has jumped from 9.6 points per game last season to 16.1. He's averaging career highs in field-goal and 3-point percentage despite shooting almost double as many threes as last season, and he leads all true bench players in points.

Pritchard is the only Celtic who's played every game, and he can certainly take on more scoring responsibility when stars sit out. He's averaging 28 minutes per game this season, six more than last campaign, despite playing for a defending champ that returned practically the entire roster.

Pritchard would be a borderline All-Star on any other team. For now, he's accepting his role and flourishing as a key member of a squad favored to become the first team to win back-to-back championships since the 2018 Warriors.

Pritchard is the NBA's most efficient pick-and-roll ball handler, scoring a league-leading 1.44 points per pick-and-roll possession, per NBA Advanced Stats. Here's a glimpse into how far his range extends:

But the Oregon product isn't just some small long-range shooter. He brilliantly maneuvers through the defense and finishes in traffic despite being an ant among a forest of trees. Pritchard scores an excellent 1.41 points per shot at the rim. Below-the-basket players aren't supposed to be this effective around the hoop:

Pritchard's speed, tight handle, burst ability, and efficacy at changing speeds and directions turned the Celtics guard from a 3-point specialist to a three-level scorer.

His footwork is akin to Jalen Brunson, another small guard unconventionally effective at scoring at the rim, which helps him create unorthodox openings.

Pritchard is even a pest defensively, even though teams typically try to target small guards. Boston is comfortable with him switching onto bigger wings and holding his own.

"Going up against somebody like Payton is difficult. I'd hate to do it," Jrue Holiday said earlier this season.

The Celtics signed Pritchard to a four-year, $30-million extension before the 2023-24 season, now one of the NBA's best contracts. Boston desperately needs team-friendly contracts with a ludicrously expensive roster exceeding the second apron.

Pritchard will never get the notoriety that Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, or Kristaps Porzingis receive - nor should he. But he's an instrumental part of Boston's success, and he'll earn individual hardware at the end of the season if he keeps producing off the bench.

Are the Bucks back in the contender circle?

The Giannis Antetokounmpo trade rumors cooled off - for now. The rumor mill ran rampant after a 2-8 start to the season and a visibly frustrated Antetokounmpo expressing his displeasure following losses. Coming off a disappointing 2023-24 that led to a mid-season firing of their head coach, the pressure was on the Bucks to contend with an aging and oft-injured roster.

The Bucks are 11-3 since that pitiful start and the 6-seed in the East. Various factors have contributed to Milwaukee's turnaround, but let's start with its nucleus.

Antetokounmpo is having perhaps the best season of his career, which is saying something for a two-time MVP and NBA champion. He leads the league in scoring with a career-high 32.7 points per game on an efficient 61% from the field. Giannis is second behind Nikola Jokic in player impact estimate. He has the second-highest usage rate of his career and is attempting his most-ever field goals. Somehow, he only has the fourth-best odds to win MVP (+750) behind Luka Doncic (+700), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+330), and Jokic (-120).

Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard are finally showing consistent chemistry over a year into their partnership, allowing them to flourish alongside each other while running various pick-and-rolls (and inverted pick-and-rolls) and knowing the other's spots.

Lillard's stats (points, assists, field-goal percentage, 3-point percentage) are up across the board compared to last campaign. His and Antetokounmpo's cohesion is essential to the Bucks' success. They're the NBA's highest-scoring duo, averaging 58.5 combined points, accounting for more than half of the Bucks' 113.4 points per game.

Second-year guard Andre Jackson Jr. has added some perimeter resistance to a starting lineup that's needed a defensive spark since Milwaukee traded Holiday for Lillard. Brook Lopez is back to protecting the rim at a high level after looking old and washed to start the season, while Antetokoumpo acts as a daunting free safety.

The Bucks will never have a defensive juggernaut with their current personnel, but they're around league average and have made noticeable improvements from last season's defensive dumpster fire. That could be good enough if Milwaukee maintains its recent offensive output, as it has the league's second-best offensive rating over the last 10 games.

Khris Middleton returned to the floor last week. While he's playing limited minutes, the Bucks need his production on both ends to compete with the best in the East. However, relying on an aging, injury-prone Middleton could contribute to the Bucks' downfall.

Milwaukee has the fourth-best odds (+1100) to win the East, behind the Celtics (-110), Cavaliers (+500), and Knicks (+500). Oddsmakers don't give the Bucks much chance to win the NBA Finals, with the 10th-best odds at +2500.

Although that seems like long odds for a team with one of the NBA's top three players, Milwaukee likely won't have enough reliable talent surrounding its elite duo to make a playoff run.

But there's a way to bet on the Bucks' short-term success without counting on an aging roster to extend its recent encouraging play to the spring. Milwaukee beat the Magic on Tuesday night to advance to the NBA Cup semifinals in Las Vegas on Saturday. The Bucks are 3.5-point favorites against the Hawks in the semis and +240 to become the second-ever NBA Cup champions.

Milwaukee's improved showing makes the team worth a bet to hang at least one banner this season. Just not the one Antetokounmpo's craving.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.