NBA Bet or Bail: Barrett's emergence, Rockets' hot start

Every week, Bet or Bail will explore players, teams, storylines, and markets throughout the NBA landscape.

Bet on Barrett to win Most Improved Player

Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold's career rejuvenation can be attributed to the right environment and coaches. But above all, their redemption stories are a lesson in patience. Wait, isn't this an NBA column?

It is, but those lessons also apply to the Association, where fans' and organizations' patience wears thin quickly with high draft picks. However, certain players take years to reach their potential.

RJ Barrett was the first Knicks draftee to sign a second contract with the team since Charlie Ward in 1999. But then New York saw an opportunity to upgrade its roster by trading Barrett for OG Anunoby last season, one of many moves that eventually landed New York one of the league's best starting units. But one organization's trash could be another's treasure.

Barrett had his moments in New York and helped facilitate a rebuild but never lived up to his potential as the No. 3 pick in 2019.

The sixth-year guard is breaking out through a quarter of his first full season with the Raptors, averaging 23.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 6.1 assists, all career highs. He's the rebuilding Raptors' leading scorer as Toronto desperately awaits the returns of other young building blocks Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley.

Barrett has the eighth-best odds at +2200 to win the Most Improved Player award, which seems high for an emerging star.

More opportunity typically leads to greater production. The Duke product is seizing his chance in a way he failed to in his previous five seasons. The Raptors have allowed Barrett to play on the ball more, partly because of the injuries to Barnes and Quickley.

Barrett has the highest usage rate of his career and is averaging the most touches. He's averaging a career-high 15.7 drives per game and is scoring the 11th most points in the NBA off drives. Though Barrett's also averaging a career high in turnovers, it's expected with more on-ball duties.

Greater volume usually leads to lower efficiency, and that's the case for Barrett. But he's never been a 3-point sniper. He's shooting a career-high 5.7 threes per game on 35% shooting. Barrett's propensity to drive more has led to a career-best free-throw rate. He's scoring 0.865 points per possession as the pick-and-roll ball-handler, the highest mark of his career.

Barrett's biggest leap has little to do with scoring. He's evolved into a playmaking titan, setting up teammates in a way he seldom has in previous years. Although he showed flashes of his passing ability in his 32 games with the Raptors last season, Barrett's assists per game have nearly doubled. He ranks in the top 30 in assists and averages 10.4 potential assists per game, on par with Steph Curry and Tyrese Maxey.

Here's a Barrett pass off a pick-and-roll early last season with the Knicks:

And here he is rejecting a ball screen and throwing a dart this year:

Barrett rejects the screen, picks up his dribble, and fakes a pass to Jakob Poeltl. He then reacts to the low man (Brandon Boston), who tags Poeltl on the roll. As he sees that, Barrett steps through and zips a left-handed pass to Ochai Agbaji.

In the first clip, Barrett doesn't wait for Mitchell Robinson's roll to fully develop and doesn't deceive the defense with his eyes or a pass fake before he rushes a no-look jump pass that sails over Julius Randle's head.

Barrett isn't immune to passes like the one in the first clip, but his decision-making out of the pick-and-roll and ability to read layers of the defense while creating shots for others have taken a huge step forward.

Gradey Dick is having a breakout sophomore season, averaging 18.5 points per game. When Barnes and Quickley return, this young core could make a run up the standings. The Raptors are only four games out of the play-in and +1600 to participate in the play-in tournament. Barrett's emergence could help them sneak in.

Are the Rockets legit contenders?

The 2023-24 Rockets were the best team to ever miss the play-in tournament. They finished last season at 41-41, the best record in NBA history for an 11-seed. With a young, developing core and the perfect coach for a youthful group, the Rockets' inevitable improvement in an extremely deep West shouldn't surprise anyone.

But the Rockets haven't just taken off, they've launched to the third seed in the West with an unexpected 17-9 start. Their identity as a gritty, physical, defensive-minded team that imposes its will on opponents isn't a secret. Houston has the league's second-best defense and an average offense. It has seven players averaging double figures, including a deadly bench combo of Tari Eason and Amen Thompson, who would lead the Sixth Man race if the award honored a bench duo. Individually, Thompson has the third-best odds at +2500 and Eason has the 10th best at +7500.

Despite the fast start, Vegas isn't buying the Rockets as contenders. They're +1200 to win the West, tied with the Grizzlies for the seventh-best odds behind the Thunder, Mavericks, Nuggets, Timberwolves, Suns, and Warriors.

While Houston is a well-coached, deep, and tough group, it lacks the star power to win playoff series. The Rockets wouldn't have the best player in a matchup against any of the aforementioned teams. That matters in a seven-game series.

The Rockets have a high floor but a low ceiling. Defense can lead to regular-season wins, but it's hard to find much success beyond that without a prolific offense.

The Timberwolves were an exception to that rule last season. They had the league's best defense and a similar offensive rating to the Rockets this season. The difference is the T-Wolves had Anthony Edwards, a dominant lead guard and one of the NBA's best scorers, to carry them to the Western Conference finals. That player doesn't exist in Houston.

Alperen Sengun is a potential franchise cornerstone. The center, dubbed "Baby Jokic," deserves to be an All-Star, but he can't consistently create shots for himself or his teammates the way the three-time MVP in Denver can.

Jalen Green has the skill set of a top-tier creator, but he's an efficiency nightmare, and his numbers are down across the board.

The Rockets have the right blend of youth and veterans to be a great regular-season team. They're a fun surprise and should continue to be a difficult nightly matchup with their daunting defense, but they're a star player away from competing with the best in the West.

Houston is well on its way to eclipsing its win total, is 16-10 against the spread, and is -600 to make the playoffs (86% implied probability) for the first time since James Harden left in 2020. Enjoy the Rockets' regular-season ride, but stop short of any hope beyond that.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.