NBA Bet or Bail: Westbrook cooking for Nuggets, Sixers free-falling

Every week, Bet or Bail will explore players, teams, storylines, and markets throughout the NBA landscape.

A lineup change has the Nuggets rolling

Certain athletes, singers, actors, or entertainers can elevate the performance of others around them. Like when Christian Bale puts a movie on his back and uplifts his supporting cast's showing, Nikola Jokic is one of the few NBA players with a similar command on the basketball court. Russell Westbrook is the latest beneficiary.

The Nuggets are 14-5 with Westbrook as a starter and 13-3 when Jokic and Westbrook start. Denver has outscored opponents by 12 points per 100 possessions when Jokic and Westbrook share the floor.

Westbrook was inserted into the starting lineup after Aaron Gordon's Christmas Day injury. That decision was easy as Gordon missed the next nine games. However, Gordon has since returned, complicating coach Michael Malone's lineups.

Malone relegated Gordon to a reserve role in the two games since his return, opting to keep Westbrook in the starting lineup because of how well he's played alongside Jokic.

In the past 11 games - where Denver is 8-3 - Jokic and Westbrook have a 26.5 net rating together, the highest among any two-man combo on the Nuggets who have played at least 150 minutes together during that stretch.

The Nuggets are 24-16 and the 4-seed in the West after starting the season 11-10. Denver leaped to +900 to win the West during a rough stretch in the first month, trailing the Thunder, Mavericks, Timberwolves, and Suns. The Nuggets now have the second-best odds to win the West (+650) behind the Thunder (+110).

Westbrook is well past his prime and has struggled to transition from high-usage former MVP to role player. The 18-year veteran relied on uncanny explosiveness throughout his best years. When that diminished, so did his star status. He was often unwilling to adapt in his previous two stops with the Lakers and Clippers.

But the Mile High City doubles as a revitalization camp where dying careers are revived. Jokic is the surgeon. Gordon was the first patient, and Westbrook followed suit. Jokic's ability to create for everyone around him through his incredible vision and passing makes it easy to play with him, especially when he commands extra defensive attention.

Westbrook seemed like a bizarre offseason addition as a career 30% 3-point shooter joining a team that finished last in 3-point attempts and sixth-to-last in 3-point makes.

He averaged fewer than 13 points on 42% shooting from the field while playing 26 minutes per game off the bench in November. He's averaging 16.8 points, 6.8 assists, and 7.1 boards on 49% shooting from the field through nine games in January, all of which he's started.

In the 15 games before Wednesday night's Jokic-less blowout loss to the Rockets, Denver was 16 points per 100 possessions better with Westbrook on the floor than off. Westbrook started 12 of those games.

That was the opposite in November: The Nuggets were 19 points per 100 possessions better with him on the bench.

It's no secret that playing alongside Jokic makes it easier for cutting teammates to get clean looks. Westbrook was a reluctant off-ball cutter for much of his career but has become a willing cutter in Denver.

He has 71 points off cuts in 2024-25. The most he's scored in a campaign in the past decade is 96 with the Lakers in 2021-22. The Nuggets aren't even halfway through their season. That's the Jokic effect.

In the clips below, the Nuggets repeat the same action in the closing minutes of their win over the Mavs. Denver forces a switch to put a smaller defender (P.J. Washington) on Jokic. Dereck Lively II either doubles (poorly) or helps heavily on Jokic, freeing Westbrook up with a cut.

A Jokic touch automatically triggers Westbrook to cut. The Mavs' lousy doubles and slow rotations allowed easy connections between Jokic and Westbrook. This is how their two-man game operates, leading to an unlikely relationship between two former MVPs.

While Westbrook's presence in the starting unit has been welcome and the Nuggets have solid young depth to complement Jokic, Jamal Murray will decide Denver's fate. His inconsistency as the lead guard haunted the Nuggets during last year's second-round exit and early this season.

Westbrook's insertion as a starter has allowed Murray to play - and thrive - off the ball more. Murray averages 22 points per game when Westbrook starts alongside him, up from his season average of 19.

Malone must decipher Denver's lineup configurations, but Westbrook's new role is a reason to bet on the Nuggets.

Time is ticking on the Sixers

There's a fine line between hope and despair, and no franchise has teetered on it more than the Sixers. Philadelphia's 2024-25 group is officially in the despair phase.

The 76ers' starting lineup Tuesday night against the Thunder featured Kelly Oubre Jr., Eric Gordon, Ricky Council, Reggie Jackson, and Guerschon Yabusele. I don't blame you if you haven't heard of some of those names.

Many believed the Sixers won the offseason after signing Paul George, but winning the offseason doesn't equate to winning games. Before this campaign, Philadelphia had the third-best odds of winning the East at +500. The 76ers are 15-24, the 11th seed in the East, and have the sixth-best odds of winning the East at +2000.

No grand basketball analysis can explain why this year has been the most disappointing in recent Sixers history (among many strong candidates). This is simply about injuries.

Former MVP Joel Embiid has played in 13 of the Sixers' 39 games. He began the season with a knee injury and has missed the past six games with a mysterious foot sprain.

George has missed 12 games and Tyrese Maxey has been in and out of the lineup at various points. The Big Three have started 10 games together and are 7-3 in those contests.

Philadelphia earned an impressive win over the Celtics on Christmas Day, signaling it was turning a corner with its health and chemistry. Since then, the Sixers are 4-7 and Embiid has played just four games. Philly has the NBA's second-worst against-the-spread record. It hasn't covered its past six games and nine of its past 11.

When the Sixers started slowly without Embiid, they could tell themselves they had plenty of time to climb into the Eastern Conference playoff picture once he returned. Now, with the season almost halfway complete, the Sixers are two games out of a play-in spot and six out of avoiding the play-in as the 6-seed. The Sixers' margin for error is as thin as their home crowds.

For the first time, the Sixers are favored to miss the playoffs rather than make them. They're -160 to miss the postseason and +125 to make it. They were -3000 (97% implied probability) to make the playoffs when the season began.

The Sixers' second-half outlook hinges on Embiid's health. Although he's been inconsistent in his minimal time on the court, he's undoubtedly one of the league's best and most valuable players. He'll eventually return, but there's no reason to believe he'll stay healthy. If another injury occurs, Philadelphia has to consider waving the white flag on a once-promising season and sitting Embiid for the rest of the year.

As the Sixers start lineups resembling the mid-2010 Sam Hinkie Process era, their fans are close to feeling something worse than despair: indifference.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.