NBA Bet or Bail: Kings cruising, T-Wolves' failed Randle experiment

Bet or Bail explores players, teams, storylines, and markets throughout the NBA landscape every week.

Kings cruising since Brown's departure

Steve Kerr said he was "disappointed" when the Kings fired Mike Brown. Michael Malone called it "classless" and Rick Carlisle said he was "shocked."

Various coaches defended one of their fraternity members when Sacramento let Brown go in late December. The 2022-23 Coach of the Year was granted an extension last summer but the Kings started the season 13-18 and were out of the playoff picture after acquiring DeMar DeRozan in the offseason.

Since Brown's firing, Sacramento's been one of the league's best teams. It's won 10 of 12 games under interim coach Doug Christie and is three games over .500 as the West's No. 7 seed.

The Kings were +280 (26% implied probability) to make the playoffs when Brown was fired Dec. 27. After their recent stretch, they're -140 (58% implied probability) to make the postseason.

The Kings' turnaround can't be entirely attributed to Brown's firing. Players often feel an increased sense of responsibility when a coach is fired midseason, leading to some reflection regarding their role in what went wrong.

Sacramento has a top-five offense and a top-10 defense in January. A big part of the Kings' turnaround: Their secondary players are playing better. De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, and DeRozan all average at least 20 points. Fox and Sabonis have played at an All-Star level most of the season, but their role players let them down.

Malik Monk became a full-time starter in December, but the final month of 2024 looked very different than the opening month of 2025. He's averaging 23.2 points in January compared to 16.5 in December. Monk's taken on more responsibility as a lead scorer and ball-handler. He's playing a career-high 31 minutes per night and attempting a career-high 14 shots per game. With his on-ball duties heightened, Monk's unlocked his playmaking with a career-high 5.6 assists per game. He's dishing 7.7 dimes per game in January.

Keegan Murray was in a shooting slump to start the season. He never shot below 35% from three in his first two seasons but was shooting worse than 30% from deep in the campaign's first two months. Murray's back to shooting 40% from three in January and averaging 13 points per game, on par with his career average. Sacramento's been a bottom-tier 3-point shooting team, so the Kings need Murray to remain consistent from deep.

Keon Ellis was the biggest beneficiary of Brown's firing. Christie's unlocked the third-year guard's game by granting him more opportunities. Ellis only played 16 minutes per game in December but is now up to 27 in January. He's averaging nearly 11.4 points per game this month, shooting an outstanding 49% from three on 5.3 attempts. He's also a tenacious defender who's helped the Kings' point-of-attack defense. Ellis stole Kevin Huerter's minutes, with the latter playing 14 minutes per game in January after playing 23 a game in December. Huerter's having an awful shooting season, connecting on a career-low 30% of his long-range shots.

The Kings' biggest improvement from their early woes is their clutch performance. Fox and DeRozan are two of the league's most clutch players - Fox won Clutch Player of the Year two seasons ago, and DeRozan was a finalist in the last two campaigns. However, Sacramento started the season 6-13 in clutch games (contests within five points in the final five minutes). It's 6-0 in its last six clutch games.

Sacramento's size issues and defensive concerns - like rim protection - will likely prevent it from being a contender, which is why it still has the 11th-best odds to win the West (+3300). However, the Kings unlocked something when Brown walked out the door and are worth a bet to return to the playoffs.

Bail on Minnesota's Randle experiment

Julius Randle was the centerpiece of a trade that sent him and Donte DiVincenzo from New York to Minnesota in exchange for Karl-Anthony Towns.

The Timberwolves finished third in the West last season, their best finish since 2004, and made the conference finals. So, Randle had hefty shoes to fill. Granted, trading Towns was a financial move more than a basketball move, as Minnesota wanted to stay below the second apron and had to get rid of KAT's exorbitant salary.

Yet Minnesota today finds itself 23-21 and in eighth in the West - not where it expected to be in Anthony Edwards' fifth season.

The Wolves were -1000 (90% implied probability) to make the postseason before the season and +475 to win the West. They're still favored to make the postseason, but the odds are down to -260, and they now have the eighth-best odds to win the West (+2000).

While the Wolves' decline directly results from the trade, it's unfair to blame Randle for everything. The two-time All-NBAer isn't having a tremendous season, but he's been solid and decently efficient.

The issue is that Randle isn't a complementary player. He's an isolation-heavy ball-stopper, a forceful, physical driver. He has the lowest usage rate of his career since he was a Laker in 2017-18.

The real challenge for the Wolves is that Randle's a below-average 3-point shooter (career 33%) who replaced a terrific 3-point shooter in Towns (career 40%). That completely alters Minnesota's spacing and makes it difficult for Edwards to get downhill. Edwards leads the NBA in 3-point attempts and shoots 9.8 per game, three more than last season, and while he's drilling a career-high 42% of them, he's getting to the foul line less.

The two-time All-Star's intentionally prioritized threes, but it's also harder for him to find driving lanes with Randle on the court. Randle isn't a serious threat from deep, so the defense sinks in and shrinks the paint when Randle's on the perimeter:

Defenders played closer to Towns on the perimeter because he got more respect as a 3-point shooter, creating driving opportunities for guards. Forward Naz Reid is a better 3-point shooter than Randle, but Reid plays significantly fewer minutes. Rudy Gobert, although limited offensively, is such a dominant force defensively that it's hard to sit him for long stretches.

As a result, Minnesota's offense ranks in the league's bottom half and its clutch offense is the NBA's third worst. The Wolves are scoring three points fewer per game than last season.

Wolves coach Chris Finch inserted DiVincenzo into the starting lineup earlier this month. DiVincenzo had been playing fewer minutes and shooting the ball uncharacteristically poorly to start the season. His minutes increased to 30 per game as his 3-point percentage rose to 41% in January. He averaged 17.5 points and 4.7 assists in six games as a starter - the Wolves went 4-2 - before spraining his big toe. He's out indefinitely, a major blow after he started to become the impactful player Minnesota hoped.

But there's another major reason why the Wolves have fallen off a cliff: Mike Conley's swift decline. The 37-year-old guard was the perfect ball-handler and creator alongside Edwards, but he can't create separation or make plays for his teammates like he did before. He's simply old.

Conley's averaging 8.1 points per game in 24 minutes, the lowest scoring average of his 19-year career. His usage rate is also the lowest of his career, and he's averaging 4.3 assists, almost two fewer than last season. Conley's lack of creation has hurt teammates like Gobert, who has the lowest usage rate of his career and is averaging his fewest points since 2015-16.

Finch removed Conley from the starting lineup for DiVincenzo, who served as a secondary ball-handler and is an underrated distributor. But Conley's back in the starting unit with DiVincenzo hurt, and the club doesn't have enough guard depth to deal with the fallout.

Everything's crashing in Minnesota and there's no easy fix. It's rarely obvious in the first season after a big trade, but the Wolves and Knicks' preseason exchange has a clear winner and loser.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.