Lakers’ title odds skyrocket, Mavs' plummet after Doncic-Davis trade
As the sports world processed one of the most shocking trades in NBA history, oddsmakers quickly reacted.
The Mavericks traded superstar Luka Doncic to the Lakers for Anthony Davis. The three-team trade included other players, draft picks, and the Jazz, but the headline is two All-NBA players exchanging teams.
Trading an indisputable top-five player who just brought the Mavs to the NBA Finals last season is a baffling move that will likely have a detrimental impact on Dallas for years to come. The odds shift illustrates how much this hurts the Mavs' championship chances.
Dallas moved from +900 to win the West to +1600 and from +2500 to win the NBA Finals to +3300 on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet. The Mavs are 26-23 and the eighth seed because Doncic played just 22 games this season as he rehabs a calf strain. He's expected to return in February.
The Lakers, meanwhile, boosted their championship odds. Los Angeles has won eight of its past 10 games and moved to the fifth seed in the West. Before the trade, the Lakers were +3300 to win the Finals and +2500 to win the conference. They've since shifted to +1600 to win the Finals and +850 to prevail in the West, behind only the Thunder and Nuggets.
Despite Dallas' apparent concerns about his conditioning and health - and possibly his upcoming contract situation - trading a player of Doncic's caliber at 25 years old is unprecedented. Although Davis is a dominant big and won a championship in Los Angeles with LeBron James, this was a no-brainer deal for the Lakers.
The Mavs gifted the Lakers the ideal post-James succession plan by handing them perennial MVP candidate Doncic, one of the few players who immediately elevates a team's ceiling to championship contention. Doncic is eligible for an extension this summer because his contract expires in 2026. The Lakers believe their history and location should persuade Doncic to re-sign with Los Angeles.
Playing alongside Doncic could extend James' career while his responsibility shrinks, allowing him to play more away from the ball as Doncic carries the scoring and playmaking duties. But this trade was about the future more than the present.
While the Lakers could contend when Doncic returns, a lineup featuring James, Doncic, and Austin Reaves will struggle defensively. Los Angeles already has a bottom-tier defense, and this move won't help. Plus, the Lakers lost their center and defensive anchor. It's fair to expect Los Angeles to add a center before Thursday's trade deadline.
When a team offers Doncic in a trade, any organization should say yes and figure out the rest later. Assuming the Lakers convince Doncic to stay in Los Angeles, the Purple and Gold will be atop the championship oddsboard for the next decade.
The Mavs still have a playoff-worthy roster, but their future looks bleak with Davis joining aging stars Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson and few top-quality young pieces to build around. Somehow, they received only one first-round pick in the trade. Dallas' ceiling went from a championship to a first- or second-round playoff exit.
Time will tell if this was a colossally bad trade or secretly genius. The NBA world weighing in seems quite certain it's the former. At least for this season's outlook, oddsmakers agree.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.