NBA post-deadline odds movement: Did Warriors, Lakers, or Spurs improve?

As the dust settles on the wildest NBA trade deadline in NBA history, we have a clearer picture of who leaped into contender status and who tanked their title chances. Nine players with at least one All-Star appearance switched teams, leading to some drastic movement in championship odds.

Luka Doncic (and Mark Williams) to Lakers, Anthony Davis to Mavericks

Don't buy the spin that the Mavericks are somehow better after the most shocking trade in league history. On the heels of an NBA Finals appearance, they ruined their short-term and long-term future and diminished their chances of winning a championship. There's no basketball justification for Dallas making this trade. Although Mavs general manager Nico Harrison said the deal will help them compete for a championship immediately, the odds suggest otherwise.

Dallas will have a sturdy defensive frontcourt. However, Kyrie Irving, who has never successfully led a team, is the only perimeter offensive creator. Anthony Davis is a dominant two-way player, but the Lakers couldn't finish above the 7-seed with him mostly healthy the last four years. His impact is vastly overrated, and the Mavs don't have the surrounding pieces to contend.

Meanwhile, the Lakers' odds shifted more than any other team involved in a trade. That happens when you acquire a top-three player and one of the few guys who immediately elevates a team's ceiling to championship contention. The Lakers weren't done making moves following the Doncic deal: They traded away a future first-round draft pick and rookie Dalton Knecht (among other pieces) for center Mark Williams, the perfect athletic big to pair with Doncic.

Williams averages 15.6 points and 9.6 boards and is a terrific finisher. He's a ferocious offensive rebounder - top 10 in the league in offensive rebounds per game - and a lob threat. He's also a daunting defensive presence at times. Williams is part of the Lakers' long-term plans, but he's a risk due to availability issues; he's missed more than half of his games with various injuries in his first three NBA seasons.

The Lakers are tied with the Nuggets for the fifth-best title odds - behind the Celtics (+220), Thunder (+230), Cavaliers (+700), and Knicks (+1400). Despite some perimeter defense concerns, they have the pieces alongside Doncic and LeBron James to contend for a championship. However, there's no precedent for major stars joining forces midseason and winning the Finals. Building chemistry takes longer than a few months down the stretch of a season. But perhaps the Lakers can take advantage of the lifeline the Mavs gifted them in Year 1.

Jimmy Butler to Warriors

The Heat granted Jimmy Butler's wish and shipped him to the Warriors. Golden State was one of the few teams desperate enough to take a gamble on the time bomb that is Butler. However, the Warriors didn't give up many impactful players - they traded Andrew Wiggins, Dennis Schroder, and Kyle Anderson - so it was worth the gamble.

Butler is undoubtedly an upgrade over all the departing pieces, and his arrival boosted the Warriors' title odds. They're tied for the ninth-best odds to win the championship, but they still have work to do to qualify for the playoffs. Golden State is out of the play-in picture as the 11th seed at 25-26. The Warriors are +175 to make the playoffs and -220 to miss it.

Forget Butler's character issues and the contract extension for an aging star - the player fits the system. First, Butler can provide relief for Steph Curry as a secondary creator, which the Warriors desperately needed. Although his availability is a concern, Butler's still an All-Star-level player who can create shots for himself and others and assume ball-handling responsibilities.

Plus, Butler can excel off the ball. He's not a high-volume 3-point shooter, but he drilled 41% of his threes on 2.4 attempts per game last season. More importantly, Butler is a skilled cutter, screener, and slipper, all essential skills in the Warriors' system.

Golden State elevated its ceiling by adding star power. However, with 31 games remaining, it might be too little, too late.

Kyle Kuzma to Bucks, Khris Middleton to Wizards

Many NBA fans scratched their heads at the Bucks' decision to swap Khris Middleton for Kyle Kuzma. Middleton had been a franchise cornerstone for the last 12 years and helped the Bucks win a championship, but he'd become a greatly diminished version of himself. Milwaukee couldn't contend with an unreliable third option who only played 111 games in the last three seasons.

Oddsmakers don't see this trade as impacting the Bucks' chances. Their championship odds remain in the same spot, tied for seventh, with the fourth-best odds to come out of the East.

The issue for many Bucks fans is the return. Kuzma has been atrocious this season, averaging 15 points per game on 42% shooting from the field and 28% from three. It gets worse: Among 248 players who average at least 20 minutes, Kuzma's 46.9 effective field goal-percentage is the 17th worst.

Kuzma was underqualified for his primary role on an atrocious Wizards squad actively trying to tank. Playing alongside Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo in a winning environment should boost his performance as those stars create looks for him. However, Kuzma needs to knock down threes at a higher rate. He shot 36% from long range with the Lakers in 2020-21, one season after winning a championship with Los Angeles. His defensive versatility is an asset, and if he can get back to a respectable 3-point percentage, this is an upgrade for Milwaukee.

De'Aaron Fox to Spurs, Zach LaVine to Kings

De'Aaron Fox's arrival in San Antonio immediately boosted its odds to win the West and make the playoffs, as I wrote earlier this week. We witnessed his impact in his Spurs debut. He scored 24 points, dished out 13 assists, and grabbed five boards in a one-point win over the Hawks.

The Spurs' game-winning play featured a two-man action between Fox and Victor Wembanyama, who has never played with a dynamic point guard like Fox. San Antonio was +700 to make the playoffs before the trade and is +360 now. The Spurs are 12th in the West at 22-26, but they're a team to watch in the season's final months.

Although the Kings' odds didn't change, they're worse without Fox. They subsequently added Zach LaVine in a three-team deal that included the Bulls. LaVine is having a great season, but he doesn't shift Sacramento's outlook. The Kings are the 10th seed at 25-26 and are +360 to make the playoffs. They could end up watching the Spurs leap them in the standings.

Cavaliers acquire De'Andre Hunter

The Cavaliers already had the third-best odds to win the NBA Finals and second-best odds to win the East (+280), but they improved at the deadline, leading to slightly more favorable odds.

Cleveland exchanged depth for a boost to its starting lineup by trading Caris LeVert and Georges Niang to the Hawks for De'Andre Hunter, who's averaging a career-high 19 points per game on 39% shooting from three. He'll fit perfectly alongside Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland as a spot-up shooter and big wing. It's not a drastic move, but the team with the best record in the East got better.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.