NBA Bet or Bail: Separating contenders from pretenders

Hall of Fame coach Phil Jackson famously said a team must win 40 games before losing 20 to be considered a true contender.

His theory has held up: Over 90% of all NBA champions attained 40 victories before reaching the 20-loss mark. There are exceptions, of course - the 2004 Pistons and 2006 Heat are the latest examples, excluding shortened seasons.

The only teams who have or will reach 40 wins before 20 losses are the Thunder (44-10), Cavaliers (44-10), and Celtics (39-16). Three other teams have a chance: the Knicks (36-18), Grizzlies (36-18), and Nuggets (36-19).

With that in mind, let's examine the latest championship odds, using Jackson's theory to distinguish contenders from pretenders.

NBA championship odds

*Teams greater than 40-1 not listed

Contenders

Celtics (+220)

After a 6-6 stretch in January, Boston won seven of its next eight games before the break, including wins over the Knicks and Cavs.

Jaylen Brown has struggled with efficiency: His 55% true shooting percentage is his worst in seven seasons. Team injuries and inconsistencies have played a part, sure, but he needs to step up.

This group lost 18 games last season and already has 16 losses this campaign. The Celtics are still the favorites, but it won't be a seamless path to the Finals against a more competitive East.

Thunder (+230)

Oklahoma City has the league's best net rating and its smothering defense also ranks first in the NBA. The Thunder value possessions more than anyone, leading the league in turnover and opponent turnover percentage. Rebounding is still an issue, largely because Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein have only played three games together. Still, the Thunder are 19-1 against the East.

Oh, and Oklahoma City boasts MVP favorite Shai-Gilgeous Alexander as well as a deep bench of reliable defenders and solid scorers. It'd be a surprise if the Thunder aren't playing in June.

Cavaliers (+750)

Kenny Atkinson's pace-and-space approach has led the Cavs' to the NBA's best offensive rating and helped them to a tie for the league's best overall record. With Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen, Cleveland always has a dangerous guard-big combo on the floor. The Cavs surrounded them with lethal shooting wings, including deadline acquisition De'Andre Hunter.

Mobley's leap as a dominant driver, enhanced decision-maker, and improved and willing 3-point shooter allowed the Cavs to take another step. Cleveland should enter the playoffs as the East's top seed with a chance to dethrone Boston.

Nuggets (+1400)

Nikola Jokic is arguably the NBA's best player, and the Nuggets always have a chance with him on the floor.

But Denver will go as far as Jamal Murray takes it. Murray was brilliant during the Nuggets' championship run two seasons ago but, partly due to injuries, was a shell of himself for the next 18 months. However, he's looked healthy and explosive of late: Murray's averaging 25 points on 42% 3-point shooting in February, his highest monthly average since the 2022-23 season. The Nuggets are 20-7 in contests the 27-year-old has played in since Dec. 23rd. With this revived version of Murray unlocked, the Nuggets deserve contender status.

Pretenders

Rockets (+4000)

There's no precedent for teams without playoff experience making a deep run. The Warriors' core suffered early playoff exits before it broke through in the mid-2010s. The Grizzlies burst onto the scene with a young group during the 2020-21 season but have won just one playoff series since. The Thunder missed the playoffs two seasons ago and made it last campaign as the No. 1 seed before losing in the second round to the Mavs.

The Rockets are following a similar road map. They missed the playoffs last season, then skyrocketed to the No. 4 seed in the West behind the league's fourth-best defense. Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, and Tari Eason have zero playoff experience.

The Warriors, Grizzlies, and Thunder all had reliable No. 1 scoring options and still couldn't get over the hump in their initial playoff run. The Rockets' ascension has been similar, but they lack a dependable scoring option in tight games.

Lakers (+1600)

The Lakers' roster has serious size and defensive limitations with minimal center options. They'll be forced to play small with leaky perimeter resistance defensively.

While their offense should be exceptional - Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves rotate between on-ball and off-ball roles - teams rarely add stars halfway through a campaign and embark on a championship run. The counterpoint, of course, is no team has ever acquired a star as gifted as Doncic midseason. Still, Los Angeles may need some time to get in the groove.

Mavericks (+4000)

The Mavs traded one of the NBA's best players in Doncic, and Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively, and Daniel Gafford are now out with injuries. Even with a sturdy defense when healthy, they're limited offensively - Kyrie Irving is their only scoring threat on the perimeter.

Dallas' current worry is how to control its understandably unruly fans who are furious with the organization after the disastrous Doncic deal.

Bucks (+3300)

Labeling Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks a contender when they've been average is difficult. Milwaukee's net rating is outside the top 10. It's 5.2 when the superstar is on the floor, still trailing the Celtics, Cavs, and Knicks in the East.

Trading for Kyle Kuzma helps with frontcourt size and durability. It also allows the Bucks to play smaller lineups with Antetokounmpo at the five. However, the Greek Freak and Damian Lillard still lack enough reliable help to compete with the myriad of weapons on the Celtics, Cavs, and Knicks.

Clippers (+3300)

The Clippers' chances depend on whether Kawhi Leonard can regain his All-NBA form. So far, it doesn't look like it: He's averaging 16.3 points on 46% shooting from the field, his lowest mark in a decade. In his 15 outings since returning from a knee injury, Leonard has averaged 26 minutes per night, but he's struggling to create space and get downhill. He's also attempting 2.1 free throws per game, his fewest since 2013-14.

James Harden and Norman Powell are having terrific seasons, and the Clippers' second-best defense has led them to the sixth seed. But Los Angeles isn't going anywhere unless Leonard flips a switch.

Maybe contenders, Maybe pretenders

Knicks (+1300)

New York can compete with anyone thanks to superstar Jalen Brunson and the lethal offense surrounding him. The Knicks have the second-best offensive rating and its starting unit leads the league in scoring. However, they lack depth - their bench is last in scoring - and their defense isn't good enough to win four playoff series.

While Karl-Anthony Towns is an offensive juggernaut, he's not a reliable rim protector and is frequently hunted in the pick-and-roll. Mikal Bridges has been disappointing defensively as a supposed wing-stopper. Mitchell Robinson, who has been out for the entire season with an injury, could solve defense and depth concerns when he returns to the lineup.

Grizzlies (+3300)

We can't discount the Grizzlies - they've reached 36 wins by the All-Star break, but they're closer to pretenders than contenders. Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane have made plenty of trips to the postseason together, but Memphis relies on many players who haven't.

The Grizzlies lead the league in bench scoring, a luxury that leads to regular-season victories. However, the bench matters less with shortened rotations in the playoffs. The Grizzlies rely on Jaylen Wells, Zach Edey - both rookies - and Santi Aldama to play over 20 minutes per game.

Warriors (+3300)

Golden State is 3-1 since landing Jimmy Butler, who looks reinvigorated and perfectly fits the Warriors' system.

Butler has averaged 21 points, seven rebounds, and 5.3 assists in San Francisco. Stephen Curry is scoring 31 points per contest since Butler's arrival after failing to average more than 24 points in any month this season.

As the 10th seed, the Warriors still face an uphill battle to make the playoffs. Golden State likely doesn't own enough complementary pieces to make it far but deserves the benefit of the doubt until we see more of Butler's impact.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.