The NBA is flailing in its own tank

You can't say Adam Silver hasn't been trying.

It became clear several seasons ago that the NBA had a tanking problem, so the commissioner made big changes. The league flattened the draft lottery odds in 2019, meaning teams with the three worst records would have an equal chance (14%) at the first overall pick.

The play-in tournament came a year later, giving the No. 9 and No. 10 clubs in each conference the chance to snag the last playoff berth by winning two contests. The idea made sense in theory: an objectively bad squad in 13th place might still be only a few games out of 10th in the last months of the season. And 10th place would mean a chance at an NBA title. Why wouldn't teams prioritize winning in that situation? Isn't that the point?

It was a nice idea, but these alterations haven't fixed anything in practice. Clubs are benching good players midgame or keeping them out of the lineup entirely to boost their chances of losing on a given night.

Wednesday night's clash between the Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers was a clear example. Both teams offered various excuses to sideline most of their regular rotation players. Per TSN, more than 77% of the teams' combined payroll was unavailable. The Raptors benched Jamal Shead after he had the audacity to score five points in 12 minutes. Jakob Poeltl was yanked after scoring nine in 17 minutes. The Raptors lost anyway - which is to say they won 118-105.

The NBA: It's tanktastic.

The problem is that managers are doing what they think is best for their organizations. Executives who helm bad teams are trying to improve their draft lottery odds as much as possible, hoping they'll draft a superstar who can change their club's trajectory. And while it was thought that flattening the lottery odds would make teams less committed to losing because there wouldn't be a clear benefit to being the very worst team, it's only made teams more eager to lose because they still have a decent shot at the first overall pick even with, say, the fourth-worst record (12.5% odds).

And every loss matters. On Tuesday, the Raptors had a 10.5% chance at the first overall pick and a 42% shot at a top-four pick, based on their position in the standings. On Thursday, after that win over the Sixers, they had a 7.5% shot at the first pick and a 32% chance at a top-four selection.

Slightly higher up in the standings, the Miami Heat have been in contention for a play-in seed for the entire 2024-25 campaign. And while it might seem counterintuitive that an organization that has recent playoff success would rather be in the lottery than the play-in, it's again a question of playing the odds: would you rather have an outside shot at a high draft pick or an even smaller chance at winning a series against a top seed?

But tanking didn't work all that well last season, either. Atlanta jumped nine spots to claim the No. 1 pick. Detroit, one of two teams with the best odds, didn't win any of the draws for the first four selections and fell to No. 5 for the second straight year.

This would typically be the point in the column when I'd offer solutions, but I'm not sure there are any. If draft lottery odds were flattened further, that could lead to more teams jockeying to be in the bottom eight or 10, especially in years when a potential superstar like Victor Wembanyama is the prize.

There could be a system in which teams eliminated from the playoffs improve their lottery position based on wins from that point - the so-called Gold Plan - but it seems ripe for manipulation. Would teams tank early, get themselves eliminated, and then start trying to win?

The NBA's uncomfortable realities are that one great player can make a huge difference to an organization, and most of the teams in the league struggle to land those kinds of players in free agency. Cleveland and Oklahoma City, the current leaders in each conference, are both recent veterans of the tanking wars. It works, but it also produces a lot of unwatchable basketball - which is, obviously, not great for the National Basketball Association.

One wonders if Adam Silver would ever be willing to go nuclear and scrap the draft entirely.

Scott Stinson is a contributing writer for theScore.