Western Conference playoff odds: Are Nuggets slipping after Malone firing?
The NBA play-in tournament begins in less than a week, but the Western Conference's playoff picture won't be decided until Sunday's regular-season finale.
The Thunder are in first place with a 13-game lead over the Rockets, who have earned the 2-seed by winning 15 of their last 17 contests. Houston has the league's second-best net rating over the last 15 games.
The Lakers only have a one-game lead over the 4-seed after Tuesday night's loss to Oklahoma City. With the standings changing nightly in the Wild Wild West, it's almost impossible to predict how the rest of the conference shakes out, but the odds tell us who might avoid the play-in.
Western Conference playoff picture and odds
| Seed | Team | Record | Odds to make/miss playoffs | Odds to be in West play-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3. | Lakers | 48-31 | -20000/+3000 | +600 |
| 4. | Clippers | 47-32 | -1600/+700 | +100 |
| 5. | Nuggets | 47-32 | -5000/+1300 | -105 |
| 6. | Warriors | 47-32 | -15000/+2000 | +450 |
| 7. | Grizzlies | 47-32 | -900/+475 | -160 |
| 8. | Timberwolves | 46-33 | -2500/+900 | +115 |
| 9. | Kings | 39-40 | +300/-475 | N/A |
| 10. | Mavericks | 38-41 | +600/-1400 | N/A |
Odds via theScore Bet/ESPN Bet
One game separates the Nuggets, Clippers, Warriors, Timberwolves, and Grizzlies, who could all end up as high as the 4-seed or as low as the 8-seed and potentially miss out on the playoffs with a poor play-in tournament performance.
If there's a five-way tie for the 4-seed, the standings are:
- 4. Timberwolves
- 5. Clippers
- 6. Warriors
- 7. Nuggets
- 8. Grizzlies
The Timberwolves, who won 14 of their last 18 outings, had the best chance of attaining the 4-seed before their collapse against the Bucks on Tuesday. However, the Wolves own the tiebreaker and have the easiest remaining schedule - two of their final three matchups are against the Nets and Jazz, explaining their 46% implied probability to be in the play-in.
The Warriors have the shortest odds of making the playoffs among the five teams and have the second-easiest schedule. Golden State is 22-5 with Jimmy Butler in the lineup and is tied for the league's best defense since the All-Star break.
The Clippers have won 15 of their last 18 games, carried by Kawhi Leonard's return to All-Star form. L.A. also has the third-best net rating in the West this season.
Los Angeles has even odds of competing in the play-in because of remaining games against the Rockets, Warriors, and Kings. However, the Clippers have discovered a nearly unstoppable combination in Leonard, James Harden, Norman Powell, and Ivica Zubac. Those four outscore opponents by 15.6 points per 100 possessions when they share the court.
That leaves the Nuggets and the Grizzlies with the best chance of appearing in the play-in. The Nuggets fired their coach and general manager on Tuesday, signaling they don't feel equipped to win this season. Denver is 11-13 since the All-Star break, has a bottom-third defense in that span, and has lost its last four contests. Jamal Murray has also missed the past five outings with a hamstring injury.
While the 4-seed is still within reach, the Nuggets have a better chance of ending up in the play-in than earning home-court advantage in the first round. They have a 25% chance of finishing as the 7-seed and a 15% chance at the fourth, fifth, or eighth seed.
After Malone's dismissal, the Nuggets' championship odds moved from +2200 to +3000. They're now +1100 to win the West behind the Thunder (-140), Lakers (+525), and Warriors (+625).
While the 7-seed isn't guaranteed a playoff spot, it might present the best path for Denver. The Nuggets would play the Rockets in the opening round, who have little playoff experience and a less stacked lineup, and they'd avoid the Thunder in the second round. Since the play-in tournament began, a 7-seed has never missed the playoffs. However, a play-in team has won a postseason series in only two out of 16 tries.
The Grizzlies have the highest probability of taking a trip to the play-in. Like the Nuggets, the Grizzlies fired their coach late in the season, hoping it would give them a boost heading into the playoffs. It's had the opposite effect. Although Memphis won three straight, the team is trending in the wrong direction after a 7-8 stretch in its last 15 games.
The Kings and Mavericks, whose seasons were headlined by trading away franchise cornerstones, are locked into the No. 9 and 10 seeds and must win two games in the play-in tournament to earn the 8-seed. No 10-seed has ever made the playoffs, but three 9-seeds have snuck in since the event began in 2021.
Sacramento and Dallas will likely miss out on the playoffs, but one of those teams will play either the Clippers, Nuggets, Wolves, Warriors, or Grizzlies in a win-and-in game next Friday - and one of the latter five clubs would be favored to win the matchup.
Buckle up, NBA fans. The late-season drama is far from over.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.