Are oddsmakers and bettors overlooking the Knicks?

The NBA world's love affair with the 2023-24 Knicks was built on admiration for their toughness and underdog attitude. New York traded toughness for talent last offseason, however, and the 2024-25 Knicks haven't resonated the same way.

Last year, winning 50 games was a remarkable, unexpected achievement for the team. This 51-win season - marking the organization's first consecutive 50-win seasons since 1994 and 1995 - feels underwhelming by comparison. After all, the Knicks entered the campaign with championship aspirations for the first time in decades following the acquisitions of Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns.

The Knicks were +300 to win the East and +700 to win the Finals in October. Despite earning the 3-seed and a first-round matchup against the Pistons, New York is now +1000 to win the East (the Celtics are -155 and the Cavaliers are +190) and +3000 to win the championship, tied for the sixth-best odds.

The Knicks are -400 favorites over the Pistons but would be massive underdogs to the Celtics in the second round. Oddsmakers see the East as a two-horse race between Boston and Cleveland. Bettors are even less enthusiastic about New York's chances. Over 42% of the bets to win the East on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet are on the Cavs or Celtics, and the Knicks aren't even third: The Bucks and Pistons have received more bets.

It's easy to see why Knicks fever has broken, but bettors and oddsmakers are wrong to write them off as a nonfactor in the Eastern Conference playoff race. One jarring stat has last year's full bandwagon looking empty: New York is 0-10 against the Celtics, Cavs, and Thunder, the NBA's three best teams.

The 0-8 mark against the Cavaliers and Celtics is particularly concerning, but for context, four of those losses came when the Knicks were without at least one starter. Two of the four losses at full strength were during the Knicks' first three games as they incorporated two new starters.

Some of those losses do illustrate a real weakness: The Knicks' lack of depth makes their playoff run especially vulnerable to being derailed by an injury. New York's starters played over 200 more minutes than any other five-man lineup in the NBA. All five starters ranked in the top 40 in total minutes; Bridges led the entire league, and Josh Hart was right behind him in second place.

Tom Thibodeau's stubbornness and the Knicks' unreliable bench contributed to the starters' absurd workload. However, the five-man group of Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby, Bridges, Hart, and Towns was exceptional, especially offensively. They had the second-best offensive rating among lineups that played at least 400 minutes together.

The Knicks are relatively healthy entering the playoffs and have a week off to rest, recover, and prepare. Overall, the Knicks had the NBA's fifth-best offense, which deserves more respect from oddsmakers.

Besides New York's depth issues, there are two big reasons people are skeptical of the Knicks' playoff chances. The first is their defense. Last season, New York had a top-10 defense and the league's best rebounding percentage. Trading for Towns and playing him at center sacrificed the Knicks' defensive tenacity for offensive prowess. Their defense is around league average, and they barely scratch the top 10 in rebounding percentage.

Simply put, Towns can't play center on an elite defensive team. He's constantly targeted in the pick-and-roll as a poor rim-protector and questionable defender in space. The Timberwolves were at their best defensively when Towns played the four alongside a towering five like Rudy Gobert.

Playoff basketball is about hunting mismatches, and opponents will target Towns and Brunson. The Celtics, New York's likely second-round matchup, are better at hunting mismatches than any other team. Brunson and Towns will consistently find themselves in actions; it's Thibodeau's job to find ways to hide them. Anunoby and Bridges defend lead guards and wings, and Hart guards up multiple positions. However, Bridges has disappointed as an on-ball defender: He hasn't contained the ball and navigated screens at the same level he did in previous years.

The Knicks have a potential bandage to stop the inevitable bleeding: center Mitchell Robinson, who returned from a foot injury in February but plays fewer than 20 minutes per game. Although it's a limited sample size, the Knicks allow five fewer points per 100 possessions when Robinson is on the floor. New York has been reluctant to use lineups that include Towns and Robinson - they've played just 47 minutes together with varying degrees of success - but it might be time to sacrifice some offense for defense if teams dominate the Knicks at the rim.

The Knicks' other glaring issue is Bridges' offensive role. His numbers are understandably down as his usage rate and field-goal attempts dropped while playing alongside All-NBA-caliber teammates. However, the former Net is underutilized in the Knicks' offense. Much like Anunoby, who scored the second-most spot-up points in the NBA, Bridges has been relegated to the corner while New York cues up pick-and-rolls on repeat with Brunson and Towns. Yes, the Knicks are the league's most efficient pick-and-roll offense, but they're also one-dimensional.

Bridges can operate as a spot-up player, drilling catch-and-shoot threes and attacking closeouts, but limiting him to that role doesn't capitalize on his strengths. He's a dynamic creator who deserves more on-ball duties while providing relief for Brunson, who can also excel off the ball.

When Brunson missed 14 games late in the season, Bridges showcased just that. The seven-year vet averaged 22 points per game during that stretch, up from his 17-point season average. He's at his best when he gets a head of steam going downhill, either attacking the rim or seeking his spots for a pull-up jumper.

New York rarely runs designs for Bridges when he shares the floor with Brunson. More pick-and-roll reps, handoffs, and zoom actions would give the team more variety and unpredictability on offense. The Knicks have a ton of mouths to feed among their starters, and Bridges deserves his fair share. Brunson is a brilliant playoff performer, but Bridges' production may ultimately determine how far the Knicks advance.

Although there are good reasons to expect the Knicks to exit the postseason before the conference finals for the third straight year, there's a simple case for optimism: Their starting five rivals the Celtics' as the NBA's most gifted. With two All-NBA players and a supporting cast that can emulate All-Stars on any given night, there shouldn't be a drastic gap between the top two teams in the East and the Knicks' title odds.

At some point, it's worth betting on a team as talented as the Knicks when everyone's penciled in Celtics-Cavs for the Eastern Conference finals.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.