As the NBA's play-in tournament concludes Friday night and the eighth seed in each conference is determined, bettors have been wagering on the opening-round matchups and the championship winner. Let's take a look at the odds for the NBA playoffs and bettor behavior so far.
NBA Finals betting insights
| Team | % of bets | % of handle | Title odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers | 17% | 19.5% | +1300 |
| Celtics | 15.3% | 16.8% | +190 |
| Thunder | 14.3% | 16.6% | +180 |
| Cavaliers | 12.3% | 10.6% | +575 |
| Nuggets | 8.3% | 7.9% | +3000 |
Insight via theScore Bet/ESPN Bet
Despite having the fourth-best odds, the Lakers are the most popular title pick among bettors. That's not exactly a surprise; the Lakers are the NBA's most popular franchise and have two of the league's best and most popular players. They also have a favorable path to make it out of the West. Understandably, bettors are pulling the trigger on a relatively long price, making Los Angeles a liability for sportsbooks.
Realistically, the Celtics or the Thunder will be crowned champions in June, explaining why they've attracted the second- and third-most bets. However, parity has risen in the league over the last few years. Wagering on a non-favorite is worth the investment.
Eastern Conference 1st-round betting insights
| Series | Series price | Handle % | Bet % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celtics/Magic | Celtics -6000/Magic +1800 | Celtics 52.8% | Magic 76.2% |
| Knicks/Pistons | Knicks -400/Pistons +290 | Pistons 83.1% | Pistons 91.5% |
| Pacers/Bucks | Pacers -200/Bucks+170 | Bucks 70.4% | Bucks 83.4% |
The Pistons are the most bet first-round series winner among playoff teams. Skepticism surrounding the Knicks is high after they finished 0-10 against the Celtics, Cavaliers, and Thunder. They also went 1-3 against the Pistons in the regular season, although I've noted those records are missing some important context.
While more money is on the Celtics, the Magic attracted more bets at an incredibly long price. Bettors must feel it's worth wagering on a first-round long shot, especially with the uncertain status of Jaylen Brown's knee. Still, oddsmakers assign the Celtics a 98% implied probability to advance to the second round.
I expected bettors to be more split on the Pacers and Bucks series. However, because the Pacers are (wrongfully, in my opinion) listed as substantial favorites, bettors are siding with the Bucks and Giannis Antetokounmpo, the most dominant player in the series, to pull off the upset.
Western Conference 1st-round betting insights
| Series | Series price | Handle % | Bet % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rockets/Warriors | Rockets +150/Warriors -175 | Rockets 89.6% | Rockets 93.6% |
| Lakers/Wolves | Lakers -200/+160 | Lakers 73.5% | Lakers 66% |
| Nuggets/Clippers | Nuggets even/Clippers -120 | Nuggets 60% | Clippers 63.4% |
The Rockets have less playoff experience than any Western Conference playoff team, but that's not dissuading bettors. Houston defeated Golden State in two out of its three matchups against Steph Curry while holding him to 36% shooting from the floor and limiting the Warriors to 97 points per game. The Rockets' physicality clearly bothered Curry, but can they overcome their inexperience against a group with championship DNA? The implied probability indicates the Warriors have a 63% chance of advancing.
As is the case in the championship market, bettors are unsurprisingly backing Luka Doncic and LeBron James to defeat Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves even though the Lakers are somewhat hefty favorites - oddsmakers give them a 66% implied probability.
The Nuggets opened as slight favorites against the Clippers, but bettors quickly pounced on the underdogs, forcing sportsbooks to move the line in Los Angeles' favor. The Clippers are the second-most-bet first-round series winner, but there's more money on Denver.
Los Angeles won 17 of its last 20 games and has been one of the NBA's best teams the past two months, while the dysfunctional and inconsistent Nuggets fired their coach and general manager in the final week of the regular season. However, Nikola Jokic remains the world's best player, setting up a thrilling series that has garnered a plethora of action.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.