Which NBA team has the best odds to erase 3-1 deficit?

NBA teams that take a 3-1 playoff series lead advance 95% of the time. Only 13 teams in league history have completed a comeback after trailing 3-1, and the only two instances from this decade happened in the 2020 bubble. In the last 17 postseasons, it's only happened five times.

The most famous case is the 2016 NBA Finals, where the LeBron James-led Cavaliers mounted an incredible comeback against the Warriors. In the previous round, Golden State had bounced back from a 3-1 series deficit to defeat the Thunder in the Western Conference finals. Entering Monday's games, how do oddsmakers rate the comeback chances of the four teams trailing 3-1 in the first round?

Timberwolves (-600) lead the Lakers (+380) 3-1

The Lakers entered the series as favorites because of their star power, but that overlooked the fact the Timberwolves won 16 of their final 20 regular-season games.

Anthony Edwards has been the best player in a series featuring Luka Doncic and LeBron James. More importantly, the Wolves' other pieces have outshone the Lakers' supporting cast. Julius Randle has a questionable playoff history, but he's averaging 22 points on 45% shooting from three and perfectly navigating next-man-up situations as the Lakers throw double-teams at Edwards. Jaden McDaniels is averaging nearly 20 points on 42% 3-point shooting while drawing the toughest defensive assignment of guarding Doncic. Finally, Naz Reid is shooting 52% from deep.

The Lakers lack a dependable center, forcing them to play small against the Wolves' size and physicality. JJ Redick also decided to play just five players for the entire second half after a single day of rest between Games 3 and 4, the first time in postseason history (during the play-by-play era) that a head coach made that bold move. The gamble backfired; the Lakers blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead as their fatigue kicked in. Doncic struggled defensively, and James was barely involved in the offense, attempting just two shots in the final 12 minutes. Exhausted, Los Angeles struggled to attack the rim: 66% of its fourth-quarter shots came from beyond the arc. The Lakers have little depth, but Redick must find sporadic second-half minutes for Gabe Vincent and Jarred Vanderbilt.

Minnesota is the better overall team and presents a matchup problem for the Lakers, but there's still optimism for Los Angeles. The Lakers have posted a truly abysmal 78 offensive rating in the clutch this postseason. That's unlikely to continue with James and Doncic, especially after they produced a 117 clutch offensive rating throughout the regular season.

Plus, the Wolves have more depth, but can their secondary contributors keep producing at this level? Randle, McDaniels, and Reid shot less than 38% from three during the regular season, and none of them averaged more than 19 points per game. The Lakers need them to cool off to mount a comeback.

The Lakers' implied probability of winning this series is 21%. However, James has done this before. Counting out his team discredits James' and Doncic's greatness.

Pacers (-2000) lead the Bucks (+900) 3-1

Just about everything that could go wrong for the Bucks has gone wrong. Damian Lillard miraculously returned in Game 2 after dealing with a blood clot for the last month, but he reportedly tore his Achilles in Game 4. Lillard's season is done, and the Bucks' season is about to follow suit.

Despite Giannis Antetokounmpo's greatness, he doesn't have enough help against the Pacers' depth. Milwaukee looks lifeless while Indiana's high-volume passing and fast-paced offense keeps all five guys on the floor involved and challenges the Bucks' defense.

Indiana has six players averaging double figures and eight players averaging at least eight points against Milwaukee. Modern playoff series are less about who's got the best player on the floor and more about who's got the more reliable supporting cast. The Bucks have the former and the Pacers own the latter, which has put Indiana one game away from advancing past the Bucks in the opening round for the second consecutive season.

Oddsmakers assign the Bucks a 10% implied probability of climbing back. Even with Lillard, the Pacers were the better group. Without him, Milwaukee has no chance.

Knicks (-4000) lead the Pistons 3-1 (+1300)

Lost in all the outrage regarding Josh Hart's uncalled foul on Tim Hardaway Jr.'s final shot in Game 4 is the Pistons' squandered 11-point fourth-quarter lead.

Jalen Brunson, who was nursing an ankle injury in the fourth quarter, exploded for 15 points in the final frame to gift the Knicks a 3-1 series lead heading back to New York. More than the officials, New York's clutch play is what's given the team control of the series.

The Pistons' physicality - and the refs allowing both teams to maul each other - has bothered the Knicks for stretches. The Knicks had the talent edge heading into the series, but could they match Detroit's toughness? After earning two gritty wins in a hostile road atmosphere, the answer is clearly yes.

Brunson, for his part, has also been the series' best player. He has 53 fourth-quarter points in this series to lead NBA this postseason on 65% shooting compared to Cade Cunningham's 26 fourth-quarter points on 35%. Brunson's co-star Karl-Anthony Towns has the second-most clutch points this postseason.

Detroit has been competitive in every game and refuses to back down, but the talent disparity is obvious in the game's final minutes, and it's too wide for the Pistons to close the gap. The Knicks are -5.5 favorites to close out the series in New York on Tuesday.

Celtics (-50000) lead the Magic (+3500) 3-1

The Magic have been surprisingly competitive against the defending champs. Although the Celtics lead 3-1, three of the four games have come down to clutch time, when a game is within five points in the final five minutes.

Jrue Holiday missed the last two games with a hamstring injury, and the Magic have successfully limited Kristaps Porzingis' offensive impact. Boston is not showcasing the best version of itself, but the Magic's defense, which was the NBA's second-best during the regular season, has challenged Boston's offense.

However, Orlando just doesn't have enough scoring and shooting to keep up with the Celtics. The Magic have the fourth-worst offensive rating among playoff teams and are last in 3-point percentage. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner average 32 and 26 points, respectively, but no other Magic player averages double digits.

The Magic's season should wrap Tuesday when they enter Boston as 11.5-point underdogs.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.