Down 2 games, is now the time to back the Celtics?
While watching the first two games of the Celtics-Knicks second-round series, it was difficult to tell which team has played together for two seasons and won an NBA championship and which group added two key starters this season.
The Celtics blew a 20-point lead in Games 1 and 2 at home to fall behind 0-2 in the series. Boston's offense appears discombobulated, quite unlike the version that won 145 games over the past two seasons.
The Knicks entered the series as massive +500 underdogs, while the Celtics were -900 on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet. Nobody believed New York had a chance to dethrone Boston as the Celtics garnered more bets to win their second-round series than any other team.
Boston and New York are now -110 - essentially a toss-up - to advance to the conference finals. The Celtics remain the favorites to win the East at +160, while the Knicks are +280. Is now the time to back Boston?
The Celtics' offense has been painful to watch. The league's best offense over the last two seasons is predicated on putting defenses in rotation through drive-and-kicks and pick-and-rolls while hunting mismatches. But they've become completely stagnant. It all starts with their superstars.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are a combined 27-of-85 (32%) from the field. OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges deserve credit for shutting down Boston's wings. After all, the Knicks gave up a haul of assets to pair Bridges and Anunoby with this matchup in mind. The Celtics are shooting 5-of-29 when Anunoby is the primary defender, per NBA stats.
But Tatum's struggles go beyond great defense. He's failed to punish switches that the Celtics generate by putting weak defenders like Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Mitchell Robinson in ball screens. Tatum's shooting 30% from the field when Towns is his primary defender and 40% against Brunson, who's defending at the highest level of his career.
In clutch time, the Celtics are looking like a group of guys who met just before a pickup game. They often settle for poor shots instead of getting downhill, as four guys watch one attempt to create something out of nothing.
The Celtics shot 25% from three on 60 attempts in Game 1, as 62% of their shot attempts came from beyond the arc. Boston cleaned up its shot diet in Game 2, as 43% of its shots came from distance. The problem: Boston again shot 25% from three.
Boston shot below 30% from three in consecutive games just once this campaign and in 14% of its regular-season games. Its shooting woes over the first two contests is a statistical anomaly.
The Knicks' defense deserves credit, especially in the fourth quarter, but the Celtics are also missing shots they typically make. Boston is shooting 33% on wide-open threes, the worst mark among remaining playoff teams. That's highly unlikely to continue. Derrick White, one of the Celtics' best shooters, shot 38% from three during the regular season but just 29% this series.
Boston also has a Kristaps Porzingis dilemma. He left Game 1 with an illness and only played 14 minutes in Game 2 after missing significant portions of the season with an undiagnosed illness. He's stumbled in these playoffs, but the Celtics are a different offense when he's playing as a floor-spacer and pick-and-pop threat.
The Knicks were vastly undervalued entering the postseason, and skeptics grew louder after the offense struggled against the Pistons' physical defense in the opening round. However, that gritty, physically challenging series has unlocked a tougher version of the Knicks that Boston has yet to match.
New York plays as a connected unit, a stark contrast from the Celtics' recent showings. Every Knicks player is engaged and ready for his moment on both ends. Anunoby had 29 points in Game 1 and five in Game 2 while playing exceptional defense in both outings. Josh Hart had 23 points in Game 2 and drilled three threes. Bridges didn't score a point through three quarters of Game 2 but exploded for 14 in the final frame, and he made timely defensive plays in the final seconds of both contests. Towns hasn't made a three but still poured in 35 points and 30 rebounds between the two games. Mitchell Robinson has been a defensive menace and a monster on the boards off the bench.
And, of course, Brunson is the clutch leader who's pacing the playoffs in fourth-quarter points, carrying the Knicks offensively in the games' most crucial moments.
Still, this series is far from over. Now is the time to wager on the Celtics to win the Eastern Conference (+160). Tatum, Brown, and the supporting cast's decline in production is concerning. However, part of Boston's necessary adjustment is to simply make shots. It's nearly impossible to believe this uncharacteristically bad shooting will continue.
Tatum is an exceptional talent who should find ways to attack mismatches and score efficiently as the series continues. The Knicks have proved they belong in the championship conversation, but the Celtics' ceiling is higher than anyone's when they play like they have for most of the past two seasons.
The Celtics actually perform better on the road than at home. Boston had five more road wins than home wins during the regular season and a slightly better net rating away. While Madison Square Garden will sound more like an EDM festival than a basketball game, the road atmosphere shouldn't impact the Celtics, who are 5.5-point favorites for Saturday's matinee.
A 2-0 series deficit isn't insurmountable. Boston has to clean up its offense, and its superstars must play at the level they've displayed in past postseasons.
The Knicks are undeniably the tougher, more resilient, and better-coached group. Sometimes that's enough to dethrone champions, but don't count the Celtics out yet.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.