The Mavericks gifted the Lakers a lifeline by shipping Luka Doncic to the West Coast. Their future appeared bleak after facilitating perhaps the worst trade in NBA history, until they also received a miraculous new lease on life when pingpong balls rewarded their incompetence and spite by granting Dallas the first overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.
Monday's draft lottery sent shockwaves across the NBA after the Mavs landed the top pick with a 1.8% chance of drawing the first selection. The prize is a potentially franchise-altering prospect in Cooper Flagg. He's -50000 to be drafted first overall.
The Spurs also surprisingly leaped to the second pick in the lottery. They have a decision to make: draft a young prospect to grow with Victor Wembanyama and San Antonio's young core, or pair the French sensation with Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Spurs have the assets to make a run at Antetokounmpo if he becomes available. However, they may forego attempting to acquire the 30-year-old superstar to draft Rutgers' Dylan Harper.
Harper will be selected No. 2 regardless of which team is picking. He's -2000 to be drafted second overall.
The draft essentially starts with the Sixers at No. 3, who, after a disastrous season, must balance their immediate championship window with their long-term future.
Philadelphia could trade the pick for a win-now asset, but the club already has a monstrous payroll. It's logical to draft an impactful player on a manageable contract. So, who will it be?
No. 3 pick odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ace Bailey | even |
| VJ Edgecombe | +165 |
| Tre Johnson | +500 |
| Kon Knueppel | +2200 |
| Dylan Harper | +2500 |
| Khaman Maluach | +2500 |
| Jeremiah Fears | +5000 |
No one could've predicted the Sixers ending up with the third pick in the draft after entering the season with the third-best odds to win the East. Fresh off an offseason lauded for signing Paul George in free agency, the campaign turned ugly quickly as injuries derailed a once-promising year.
While the Sixers won't be worse than a 24-win group next season, there's still uncertainty surrounding Joel Embiid's health and the aging George. Philadelphia must find a prospect who can help the team win instantly while ensuring he can guide the franchise into the post-Embiid era alongside Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain.
Ace Bailey has the highest upside after Flagg and Harper, and most draft boards firmly believe he's the third-best player available. But Bailey is a volatile prospect. He showcased flashes of his raw talent, athletic ability, and difficult shotmaking in his lone season at Rutgers. However, inconsistent performances and inefficiency - he had a 53% true shooting mark - are glaring red flags, along with his poor passing.
Developing a consistent and efficient offensive skill set is a project the Sixers may opt away from for a win-now player with lower upside.
VJ Edgecombe could be the most logical and safest option. The Baylor product is an athletic specimen who can serve as a wing slasher and a solid catch-and-shoot shooter. He's also an NBA-ready defender. After averaging 15 points per game for the Bears, Edgecombe could thrive as a role player on a contender.
To be drafted in the top 5 odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| VJ Edgecombe | -1500 |
| Tre Johnson | -425 |
| Jeremiah Fears | +200 |
| Kon Knueppel | +200 |
| Khaman Maluach | +320 |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | +1300 |
| Kasparas Jakucionis | +1800 |
| Derik Queen | +2200 |
| Noa Essengue | +3000 |
| Jase Richardson | +4000 |
After the Mavs, Spurs, and Sixers, the Hornets and Jazz round out the top five picks.
Edgecombe won't slip much further if the Sixers don't draft him at three. Nearly every mock draft has him landing in the top five. If Philadelphia opts for Edgecombe or someone other than Bailey, Charlotte and Utah will take a chance on the Rutgers star as those organizations attempt to inject life into lifeless franchises.
Tre Johnson and Jeremiah Fears are two of the best guards in the class. Johnson is considered the better prospect after averaging nearly 20 points per game on 40% shooting from three as a Texas freshman. There's almost no chance he slips past five. Fears is a more polarizing prospect as an athletic guard who only shot 28.4% from three in his lone season at Oklahoma.
The Hornets and Jazz need a high-upside player. While Khaman Maluach has a high floor, his ceiling is lower than other projected top picks as a rim-running big. Collin Murray-Boyles and Derik Queen have higher ceilings but are more risky prospects. One could sneak into the top five past Johnson or Fears.
Flagg, Harper, Bailey, and likely Edgecombe will be the top four picks in some order. The fifth spot is up for grabs as the draft process plays out over the next month.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.
