Preseason overreactions: How real are these 7 NBA trends?

The preseason can be tricky. No one wants to overreact to the results of ultimately meaningless exhibition games, but those contests are often our first glimpses of a team's new identity, a player's new tool kit, or a troubling sign of what's to come. Here are seven preseason trends worth monitoring as the NBA's 2025-26 regular season draws near.

Alperen Sengun is Baby Jokic

Sengun was already one of the league's best playmaking centers, but with Rockets starting point guard Fred VanVleet sidelined by a knee injury, Sengun appears ready to make good on those "Baby Jokic" comparisons.

Sengun, whose career average for assists per game is 4.1 and whose career-high is 5.0, had 25 assists in three preseason outings. The All-Star center won't consistently initiate Houston's offense the way VanVleet did, but even with Kevin Durant on the team, Houston's attack will still run through Sengun in the middle. If everything breaks right, he could flirt with averaging a 20-point triple-double.

Ace Bailey is even better than advertised

I was admittedly down on Bailey coming out of Rutgers. I saw a high-volume chucker and limited playmaker who wasn't efficient enough with the ball, wasn't consistent enough off of it, recorded more turnovers than assists, and who picked and chose when he wanted to defend. The counterargument was always that Bailey's game was better suited to the NBA than the NCAA. So far, that seems to be the case.

Bailey made it look exceptionally easy in the preseason, pouring in 48 points on 35 shooting possessions while shooting 68% inside the arc and 42% from deep before being sidelined by a knee issue. The playmaking vision still appears limited, but his defensive upside has popped off the screen at times, and you can't ask for much more from a 19-year-old rookie.

The Tatum-less Celtics will run like hell

Jaylen Brown raised eyebrows when he said that Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla ran an incredibly physical and up-tempo training camp that had Boston looking like a track team rather than a basketball team. After all, the Celtics haven't finished above average in pace since 2016-17, and they were the league's second-slowest team last season. Compare that to this October, when they played at the eighth-fastest pace.

With Jayson Tatum sidelined, a less isolation-based offense left in his wake, and less talent for Mazzulla to work with, Boston is clearly looking to push the pace, generate easier buckets, and wear opponents down.

"Before training camp, you assess the roster. What's your personnel? What are your strengths? What system do you want to play?" Mazzulla told theScore before the Celtics' preseason game in Toronto on Oct. 10. "We just want to take advantage of the strengths that we have, continue to play fast and more athletic."

Boston's frontcourt is woefully thin, but between Brown, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, new scoring guard Anfernee Simons, and Mazzulla's maniacal commitment to excellence, don't be shocked if the depleted Celtics find a way to keep on running right to the postseason.

Orlando can finally score

The Magic's aversion to competent offense has become one of my favorite annual stories, much to the chagrin of Orlando's devoted fans. The gist of it is that the team hasn't ranked higher than 22nd in offensive efficiency since 2011-12.

The arrival of Desmond Bane should fix that, as he's a legitimate three-level scorer who brings the shooting, spacing, and movement desperately needed to unlock things for a talented team that already features Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. If the preseason is any indication, Magic fans can breathe easy and expect to finally root for a team whose offense won't rank in the bottom eight. Orlando finished its exhibition schedule boasting a top-two attack.

Utah has the worst defense ever

After a couple years of having their best-laid tanking plans spoiled by surprisingly frisky teams, the 2024-25 Jazz finally proved bad enough to sink to the bottom. Utah's 2025-26 roster is somehow even worse, with a particularly wretched defensive squad in front of young center Walker Kessler. Even Kessler's best might not save Utah from infamy. The Jazz posted the worst defensive metrics in recorded preseason history, with their defensive rating of 123.4 being a whopping 3.2 points per 100 possessions worse than the previous record (120.2, held by the 2023 Knicks).

Barnes doesn't look like a max player ... until he does

I expect Scottie Barnes to contend for his second All-Star selection this season and still see All-NBA upside long term, so I didn't want to bury him for a bad stretch in early October. But yikes, it's tough to remember a player as good as Barnes having a preseason as bad as the Raptors' franchise player slogged through over his first three games.

His defense, rebounding, and playmaking were acceptable. But Barnes' refusal to attack the basket in his first two games, his difficulty getting there when he did try in the third game, and his commitment to low-percentage looks - which shined an unfortunate spotlight on his wonky jumper - were concerning, to say the least. Through three contests, the 2024 All-Star scored 18 points of 6-of-30 shooting, including an 0-for-7 performance from deep.

Luckily for Barnes and the Raptors, there was one more preseason game to play, which the star forward used to shake off the cobwebs. Barnes logged a game-high 35 minutes in the exhibition finale (a home victory over Brooklyn), pouring in 31 points on 10-of-15 shooting to go along with six rebounds, four assists, three steals, and a block. Even better, 13 of his 15 field-goal attempts came in the paint.

Raptors fans just have to hope that Barnes, who will be playing more of an off-ball role on the first year of his max contract, was merely experimenting and/or coasting through his first few games.

Ware is Whiteside 2.0

Sophomore big man Kel'el Ware averaged 17.8 points and 11.5 rebounds in less than 23 minutes per game, leading many to wonder what the 21-year-old might have in store for Miami once the real games tip off. However, Ware's an awkward fit beside starting center Bam Adebayo and likely won't start ahead of Nikola Jovic. In addition, the talented seven-footer has faced questions about his motor since he was a college prospect, and head coach Erik Spoelstra doesn't seem sold on Ware's empty numbers.

Over the course of Miami's winless preseason, Ware finished as a minus-55 in 140 minutes, while the Heat essentially played to a draw (minus-one) in 153 minutes without him.

Ware was one of October's most productive players, but the discourse around him reminds me of former Heat big man Hassan Whiteside, whose gaudy numbers never lined up with his on-court impact, particularly on the defensive end.

Joseph Casciaro is theScore's lead NBA reporter.