Raptors' resurgence: Is Toronto a real threat in the East?

Confusion surrounded the Raptors entering this season because of their puzzling roster construction and salary structure. But Toronto's adopted a modern NBA philosophy predicated on speed and positional flexibility, and the team is proving the doubters wrong. The Raptors have won eight straight games and are second in the East at 13-5. So why don't their title chances reflect that?

While the Raptors' Eastern Conference title odds have shifted in their favor (from +7500 to +2000 on theScore Bet), they still own the 10th-best odds. Frankly, that's disrespectful.

The Raptors probably won't win the East since they won't have the best player in any playoff series. However, in an conference with contenders whose championship cases contain more holes than a golf course, Toronto deserves respect as a team capable of exploding for a Pacers-like championship run.

The Raptors' emergence is no early-season fluke. Their defense, ball movement, speed, and depth are all sustainable factors that can lead to their first playoff appearance since 2022. The Raptors were +200 to make the playoffs in the preseason and are now -450. Their 34.5 preseason win total has jumped to 46.5. Of the previous 254 squads that won at least 13 of their first 18 games, all but one made the playoffs, according to Stathead data cited by theScore's Joseph Casciaro.

Eastern Conference odds

🏀 You can find full championship odds on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Although the Pistons and Raptors have surged to the top of the standings, the Knicks and Cavaliers are still the class of the East, and Toronto swept the three-game season series against the Cavs. While Cleveland was missing at least one of its top four players in every game, that was a 64-win team last season. The Raptors' performance proved they can hold their own against the conference's best.

The Raptors own the NBA's fifth-best net rating and a top-10 offense and defense. Much of the criticism levied at the franchise is about using 88% of its salary cap on four players who have one combined All-Star appearance over the last five seasons. But the team has proved it's greater than the sum of its parts.

Head coach Darko Rajakovic's style emphasizes playing fast and together. Rajakovic, who has the second-best odds to win Coach of the Year (+650), encourages his wings to grab and go, pushing the ball in transition off of turnovers and defensive rebounds. The Raptors are second in the NBA in assists and transition points and fourth in cutting frequency, meaning they're moving without the ball and finding open cutters.

The Raptors average the 10th-fewest seconds per touch and eighth-fewest dribbles per touch. They move the ball quickly, generating clean looks against scrambled defenses - they attempt the fifth-most open shots in the league. They focus on the quality of their 3-pointers, not the quantity: They're sixth in 3-point percentage (37.8%) while attempting the fourth-fewest threes per game (32.3).

Even mid-range menace Brandon Ingram, who's elevated Toronto's half-court offense, isn't holding onto the ball as much. He's averaging 3.21 seconds per touch, the lowest mark of his career.

Ball movement and pace promote a balanced scoring attack, and the Raptors fittingly have six players averaging double figures. Ingram leads the way with 21.6 points per game as co-star Scottie Barnes averages 19.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 5.1 assists. RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and big man Jakob Poeltl are all significant contributors.

The Raptors' revelatory bench is filled with cheap, unheralded, and young talent. Sandro Mamukelashvili is averaging a career-high 10.4 points for Toronto's second unit. The rotation also features Collin Murray-Boyles, Gradey Dick, Jamal Shead, Ochai Agbaji, and Ja'Kobe Walker. The Raptors don't fall off a cliff when the starters sit: They own the NBA's second-best bench net rating behind the Thunder.

Defensively, the Raptors' intense ball pressure and innovative schemes force the seventh-most turnovers. Their long, athletic wing defenders - also capable rebounders - have led Toronto's ascension. Barnes, who's making an All-Defensive case, is third in the NBA in stocks (steals plus blocks).

The Raptors are a long shot to win the East. You know who else was a long shot? The 2024-25 Pacers were +4000 in mid-December. While the personnel are different, the Raptors share a somewhat similar profile to Indiana. Around 25% of Toronto's points come in transition, similar to last year's Pacers group. Both teams average roughly 30 assists per game. They also grab defensive rebounds and force turnovers at a similar rate, creating transition opportunities.

Raptors fans should enjoy an exciting basketball team that will end their playoff drought. And with the conference wide-open, there's no harm in dreaming about making a run at another NBA title.

Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more basketball coverage.

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