How Giannis' injury affects Bucks, trade market, plus 1 big winner

A tumultuous season in Milwaukee grew even worse Friday, with Giannis Antetokounmpo suffering a suspected calf injury that he expects to sideline him for four-to-six weeks. The ripple effects of the Bucks superstar's latest setback will be felt around the Association.

What it means for Giannis

Antetokounmpo has looked disengaged at times on the court and seems to be in some sort of unspoken standoff with the team off the floor. Meanwhile, the Bucks are an uninspiring 11th-place mess. And yet, the Greek Freak is still dominant enough that he would've been in contention for a remarkable eighth straight All-NBA first-team selection had he met the games-played requirement.

Antetokounmpo is averaging 28 points, 10 rebounds, and 5.6 assists on a career-high 67.9% true shooting for a Bucks team that has performed like a top-five club when he's on the court (+6.1 points per 100 possessions) and the second-worst team without him (-9.9). Not bad for a "down year." However, with only two games worth of wiggle room remaining to reach the 65-game threshold, Antetokounmpo's award eligibility will soon evaporate.

From a financial perspective, Antetokounmpo doesn't need to earn specific individual honors to qualify for a bigger contract the way players coming off their rookie deals do, but his earning power could still be affected. The 10-time All-Star is eligible to sign a four-year extension worth $275 million in October. As his incumbent small-market team with a future that's been completely mortgaged to appease him, Milwaukee has every reason to pay Antetokounmpo whatever it takes to keep him. That might not be the case for every franchise.

Antetokounmpo would be eligible to sign the same mammoth extension with another team - which would run from the 2027-28 season through the 2030-31 campaign - six months after being acquired via trade. But as great as the future Hall of Famer is, he's also a 31-year-old non-shooting giant who relies on athleticism and explosiveness. He has already lost a step defensively and missed at least 15 games in four of the last five seasons. Committing to pay him more than 35% of the salary cap in his age-33 to age-36 seasons isn't viable for most clubs. That doesn't seem like a winning strategy in the age of aprons.

If the combination of Giannis' age, calf issues, and waning durability spooks potential suitors from paying him top dollar, could it also cool his trade market with only one guaranteed year remaining on his current contract? And if Antetokounmpo's camp realizes that his only chance to earn the absolute max is to stay in Milwaukee, would that change his thinking?

Perhaps we're getting ahead of ourselves. It only takes one desperate team to bowl the Bucks over with a godfather offer and then write a $275-million check. But it's possible the only team willing to pay Antetokounmpo that much is the same squad he seemingly wants to divorce.

What it means for the Bucks

The Bucks have looked like a team that's dead on arrival in too many of their recent games with Giannis in the lineup. It's about to get a whole lot uglier without him, which should end Milwaukee's postseason chase given that the club entered Sunday 2.5 games behind 10th-place Atlanta.

That might be a blessing in disguise. The Bucks weren't competing for anything beyond a few home playoff dates, and a first- or second-round exit isn't going to be the swing factor in Antetokounmpo's plans. An organization devoid of young talent or anything even resembling a blue-chip prospect could use a lottery pick. Antetokounmpo's injury should secure one.

The Bucks will receive the least favorable of their own first-rounder and New Orleans' first-rounder this year, with both clubs seemingly destined for the lottery. Given the potential franchise-changing prospects atop the 2026 draft class, Milwaukee suddenly has a real opportunity to insure its future. The Bucks could land the type of talent that makes parting with Antetokounmpo easier - or the kind that convinces him to stick around.

The odds aren't in their favor, but it's still a more fruitful endeavor than the Eastern Conference play-in tournament.

What it means for the trade market

If the Bucks decide to entertain offers for Giannis, the two-time MVP would obviously be the biggest star available ahead of the Feb. 5 trade deadline. He could return before the postseason and still has a year of team control on his deal.

But it already felt like the two parties were going to kick the can down the road until the offseason, if not later, when those aforementioned extension talks occur. This injury only reinforces that likelihood.

A big win for the Hawks

In what's otherwise a depressing story, the Hawks should be ecstatic. Thanks to an incredibly foolish draft-night decision by the Pelicans last year, Atlanta will receive the most favorable first-rounder between New Orleans' and Milwaukee's selections this June.

The Pels have spent the entire season with or slightly ahead of the league's worst record, which would guarantee a top-five pick. But it's the combined odds of the two picks that should excite Atlanta. New Orleans and Milwaukee currently own the second- and eighth-worst records, respectively. That would give the Hawks a league-leading 20% chance of landing the No. 1 pick, a figure that should only increase as the Antetokounmpo-less Bucks slide further down the standings.

Joseph Casciaro is theScore's lead NBA reporter.