The Thunder have held the top spot on the NBA championship oddsboard for the entire season, but their stranglehold as the title favorites weakened following their Game 1 loss.
Oklahoma City was -175 to repeat as champion before the Western Conference finals began, implying a 63.6% win probability. However, after dropping Monday night's contest in double overtime to the Spurs, the Thunder are now +120, which is longer than their odds before the playoffs started.
NBA championship odds
| Team | Odds | Odds Before Playoffs |
|---|---|---|
| Thunder | +120 | +115 |
| Spurs | +150 | +480 |
| Knicks | +475 | +1800 |
| Cavaliers | +2000 | +1200 |
👉 Who will win the NBA Finals? Bet it with theScore Bet here
The nearly 20% drop in win probability isn't just a reaction to one loss - it's a market correction.
The Thunder did not have an answer for Victor Wembanyama in Game 1. The 22-year-old sensation recorded 41 points, 24 rebounds, and three blocks and hit a clutch three from well beyond the arc to force double overtime. Wembanyama has continued to elevate his play as the postseason progresses, and the betting market has finally realized the Spurs are a legitimate threat to end the Thunder's reign despite their lack of playoff experience.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who recently won his second straight MVP award, failed to match Wembanyama's performance. SGA was 7-of-23 from the field and had a net rating of minus-13.1. He admitted postgame that he needs to play better.
OKC was -250 (71.4%) to beat the Spurs in the series. Those odds have also shifted to -110 a side, making the Western Conference finals a true coin flip.
This is the first bit of adversity the Thunder have faced all postseason. How they respond in Wednesday's Game 2 could ultimately decide their season.
US: Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER; Hope is here. Call (800)-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org for 24/7 support (MA); Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
ON: Please play responsibly. 19+. ON only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call ConnexOntario 24/7 at 1-866-531-2600. Text us at 247247 or chat with us at www.connexontario.ca.
