Who is this year's Sixth Man of the Year?
Over most of the past half-decade or so the Sixth Man of the Year award has basically been decided by this point in the season, and it's usually gone to a very specific type: The combo guard who anchors the second-unit, who does a little distributing and perhaps a tiny bit of defending, but is mostly marked by his scoring punch. You know the names: Jamal Crawford, Jason Terry, James Harden, J.R. Smith, Manu Ginobili. They've crafted a mold that teams now actively seek to fill off their bench, and nearly every year now one of them ends up taking home the hardware (Lamar Odom, in a crazy underrated 2011 season for the Lakers, has been the only recent exception).
This year, though, not only are none of those guys a real 6MOY contender--Manu, the least-recent winner of the bunch, is the only one who's close, but he's missed over 10 games and he only plays 23 minutes a night--but there's no obvious successor in waiting. There's no first guy off the bench for any playoff team that's averaging 16 or 17 with a couple assists and 40% three-point shooting to be found. This is partly because injuries have graduated some of these guys (Crawford, Smith, even Oklahoma City breakout star Reggie Jackson) to the starting lineup against their team's wishes, and because others (Terry, Smith again) have seen their skills deteriorate to the point where they're no longer viable contenders.
But the result this season is a new crop of 6MOY hopefuls that few would have predicted coming into the season, many of whom are far from fitting the traditional kind of mold that we've gotten used to. Here are five of the leading nominees for the NBA's most enigmatic award.
Taj Gibson, Chicago Bulls - If there were a frontrunner for the award at the moment, it'd probably be Taj, who ESPN's Marc Stein recently hand-picked as his selection for his second-trimester awards, and who has at least been included in deeper discussion for the distinction in years past, if not ever actually mentioned a serious contender. For the first time in his five-year career, Taj is actually averaging double figures in scoring--13.3 points a game, partly due to an increase in minutes (29 MPG, up from 22 last year) but also due to a hike in both FGAs per 36 (13.6, up from 10.9) and FTAs per 36 (4.3, up from 3.2), while still keeping his FG% in the high 40s, and even shooting a career-best 74% from the line this year. Improbably enough, he's even No. 1 on the Bulls in total points scored, 13 ahead of teammate Carlos Boozer with his 796.
Of course, even though he's improved greatly in the scoring department, it's still defense and rebounding that keeps Gibson at the forefront of these rankings. He's on pace to post career-highs in total blocks and rebounds (though per 36, he's actually a little lighter than in some years past), his 3.1 Defensive Win Shares are easily the highest among bench players (Golden State's Draymond Green is second with 2.6), and opponents are shooting just 42.7% at the rim against him as a primary defender, lower than such elite rim protectors as Andrew Bogut, Serge Ibaka and even teammate Joakim Noah. Defensive-minded bigs barely ever win this award--Odom is the only 21st-century winner that arguably fits such a description--but in a career year, and without another obvious favorite, Taj might become the second this year.
D.J. Augustin, Chicago Bulls - All that said, Gibson might not even be the front-runner on his own team. As unlikely as it would seem at season's beginning, D.J. Augustin has a decent shot at winning this thing for the Bulls, averaging 13.6 points and 5.3 assists a game in his 40 games for the Bulls, while shooting 41.5% from three and only turning the ball over about twice a game. His 15.9 PER ties his career high, and his 112 Offensive Rating is tops on the Bulls. What's more, Chicago has gone 25-15 since he's joined the team, after an 8-12 start to the season, and no less an authority on the matter than Joakim Noah has basically credited Augustin with saving the team's season. As the more traditional scoring guard off the bench, Augustin would also seem the safe sort of 6MOY winner.
Unfortunately, there is the pesky matter of those 10 games in Toronto. Those 10 games were bad enough--two points and one assist a game, a PER of 1.3--to potentially submarine Augustin's entire case, and there's a certain lack of historical precedent, as no previous 6MOY winner has ever played on multiple teams in his winning season. However, if Augustin ends the season strong, and the Bulls hold on to the third seed in the East, it's certainly not impossible his name will be discussed. I'm rooting for D.J., mostly for anarchy's sake.
Markieff Morris, Phoenix Suns - To put it plainly, Markieff Morris was simply not a relevant player his first two years in the league. He averaged single digits in scoring, shot around 40%, posted subpar PERs and played scant minutes for a losing team. This season, as everything has changed for Phoenix, so has everything for Chief 'Kieff, with his scoring spiked to a career-best 13.3 a game, his shooting now over 47%, and his PER now at a near-All-Star-caliber 18.5, as he plays 26 minutes a night for the playoff-bound Suns. He gets to the line a ton (nearly six attempts per 36), he racks up steals and blocks, he even randomly won Western Conference Player of the Week once at the beginning of the season. You could make a real case that with Eric Bledsoe out most of the season, Markieff has been the second-most-valuable Sun behind Goran Dragic.
Sixth Man of the Year might not even be the trophy Morris ends up really campaigning for this award season--considering that he's gone from fungible replacement player to core guy on a playoff team seemingly over night, he might far better fit the profile of a Most Improved Player candidate. But considering the slam-dunk winner for that might be Dragic himself, who was speculated to be a trade target at season's beginning and now might actually get some votes for MVP--earned ones--perhaps Markieff would be wiser to keep his call lists to 6MOY voters.
Vince Carter, Dallas Mavericks - As far as complete career reinventions go, turning into a Sixth Man of the Year candidate and reliable second-unit anchor for the Dallas Mavericks in his mid-late 30s basically makes Vince Carter the NBA equivalent of post-Achtung Baby U2. But he's done it, and he's done it well--after qualifying for Dinner Fork status in my Fork Index last November while averaging just 11 a game on 34% three-point shooting, Vince turned his season around, increasing his scoring and 3FG% shooting every month, until February where he averaged 13 and five on 42% from deep (He also had a +/- mark for the month of +14.8, and an Offensive Rating of 120). Now he has a well-above-average PER of 16.6 for the season, and his 12 points a game are third on the Mavs.
Vinsanity came on late last season as well as a possible 6MOY candidate, but a bit too late to really compete with J.R. Smith for the honors. Without an obvious J.R. to fend off this season, if Carter's steady rate of improvement continues and the Mavs manage to squeak in the playoffs, he might not get shut out again this season (His first game in March, a 21-point, five-assist, four-board, zero-turnover effort against the Spurs, bodes well).
Andray Blatche, Brooklyn Nets - It never stops being hilarious that almost instantly after his almost entirely ignominious tenure in Washington was rightfully brought to an end via amnesty, Blatche resurrected his career as a bench scorer of remarkable consistency for the Brooklyn Nets. For the second-straight season, Blatche is posting a PER over 20--All-Star territory--off the bench for Brooklyn, averaging about 19 and nine per 36, shooting worse from the field (47%, down from 51%) but better from the free-throw line (76%, up from 69%). Blatche has had to play a slightly bigger role for the Nets this year post-Brook Lopez injury, and for the most part, he's done so without any statistical dropoff, helping to keep Brooklyn in the playoff hunt.
Andray Blatche. Markieff Morris. D.J. Augustin. Vince Carter. Two years ago, if you asked a bunch of NBA fans if in March of 2014 this would be a list of Sixth Man of the Year candidates, or a list of still-unsigned free agents who were hoping to catch on with a playoff team at the last minute, it's hard to imagine anyone would choose the former, right? It might not be quite as exciting or historic an end-of-season award race as LeBron vs. Durant for MVP, but it's gonna be much funnier and, in a way, more incredible. I'll certainly be keeping tabs on it for the season's final month and change, and so should you.