In last year's NBA Finals, the bookmakers got the series right, though by the slimmest of margins. Vegas had made the Miami Heat 5-to-2 favorites - with a few seconds left in Game 6, that looked to be the wrong line (though there's more for them to consider than outcome, of course), but the Heat eventually won in seven.
This year, however, bookmakers are tapping the San Antonio Spurs to come out on top in the rematch, securing their fifth NBA title in 17 seasons.
Here are the odds from several sportsbooks:
| Book | Spurs | Heat |
|---|---|---|
| Sportsbook.ag | -130 | +110 |
| Betonline.ag | -125 | +105 |
| Bovada.lv | -125 | +105 |
A line of -125 for the Spurs implies a win probability of roughly 55.6 percent. That's a shade high based on what BasketballReference's series predictor suggests (a 53 percent chance for Miami), but other projection systems haven't yet released their finals odds.
What's clear, however, is that the series should be close, and that the Spurs having home court may loom as a deciding factor. It's also possible that bookmakers have anticipated public money having "fatigued" from the Heat - while sharps would jump on line that was too weak in either direction, it's possible the line has been shaded slightly in anticipation of a greater share of money coming in on San Antonio.
Then again, they could also see the Heat as a big "public" team and they actually favor the Spurs slightly more than the odds would indicate.
In any case, we should be in for another tight final.
