5 bold predictions for the 2014-15 NBA season

#1

The Chicago Bulls will have the best record in the Eastern Conference

The ceiling for the Cavaliers is higher than it is for the Bulls, and by playoff time Cleveland will likely be functioning at an unstoppable level. 

That's going to take some time. The Cavaliers are brand new, put together mostly from scratch, and there's a lot to figure out. David Blatt is creative and smart, and has the heaviest of offensive arsenals at his disposal, so it won't take long on the offensive end. Defensively, there's a lot of work to be done. There's also a good chance the team manages LeBron James' workload carefully, especially if the Bulls hold a lead in the standings late in the year.

And they will, because the Bulls are really, really good. Somewhere between the San Antonio Spurs and the Cavs, the Bulls are returning most of their core pieces and have added key players in Pau Gasol, Nikola Mirotic, and Doug McDermott. Pencil Derrick Rose in for even 60 games, and the Bulls may be a 60-win team.

Come playoff time, the Cavaliers are the favorite. Over an 82-game grind with the learning curves at play, the Bulls will have more success.

#2

Blake Griffin establishes himself as a top-5 player

What, you were expecting a different Western Conference power forward here?

As Griffin's improved over his four seasons in the league, it's become apparent he's a victim of his own early highlight reel success. Last season, the "he only dunks" garbage was effectively disposed of, but it still seems as if Griffin's status as an elite player is questioned by the casual fan.

That won't be the case this season, as Griffin takes another step forward in his age-25 season. The stats will approach 25-10-5, something accomplished only nine times in league history, and his growing offensive versatility will be on display with the Clippers fighting atop the West standings. 

As important, Griffin's improvement on the defensive end should continue, making him one of the deadliest all-around players in the game. Whether your guide is advanced stats (he was 15th in Real Plus Minus and sixth in Win Shares last year), basic stats (see above), team results (the Clippers could win 60 games), or the eye test (seriously, he's unbelievable), Griffin will find his name mentioned in the group directly after LeBron James and Kevin Durant by season's end.

#3

The Cavaliers set a record for offensive efficiency

115.6 points per-100 possessions.

That mark represents the most efficient offense in NBA history and belongs to a 1986-87 Lakers team that employed Magic Johnson, James Worthy, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Five other teams have cracked the 115 barrier, something the Cavaliers weren't particularly close to in the preseason with a 112.6 rating.

They played chunks of the preseason without their star pieces together, though, and it's not difficult to see LeBron James, Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving, and Dion Waiters hitting a stride once together for an extended period. Head coach Blatt is a creative offensive mind, too, and with all of these players at his disposal, the offense will be near impossible to defend.

It seems crazy to expect the best offense ever - the title of this article is not five things highly likely to happen - and one that's 3.5 points per-100 possessions better than last year's top offense. But it's the best player in the world, another top-10 offensive weapon, several good-to-great additional pieces, and a highly-respected offensive mind pulling the strings. This is going to be a lot of fun.

#4

Kobe Bryant averages more points than the Lakers win games

Sorry, Lakers fans, but this does not mean Bryant is going to average 55 points. The Lakers are going to be bad. Like, very bad. 

Bryant looked decent enough in the preseason, taking a shot every 95 seconds and posting a 19.9 player efficiency rating, below his personal standard but solid enough. With few other offensive options - Jeremy Lin and Nick Young are the only other players on the roster who can reliably create for themselves - Bryant's usage rate is going to be sky-high, and even if his minutes are kept in the low-30s, he could average 25 points.

That sets the bar for the Lakers' win total very low, but who are they better than in the Western Conference? Minnesota, probably, and maybe Utah, but that's about it. They don't have a single above-average defender on the roster, Byron Scott is outlawing threes - which are high-variance and should be a major tenet of a bad team's offense - and Julius Randle stands as the only player who could exceed expectations.

Hey, the 2015 draft class is looking decent, and another down year stands to have the Lakers in a position with two good, young players and ample cap space in 2016. Patience, yo.

#5

The trade deadline passes without any major deals

Last year's relatively quiet trade deadline saw just nine trades take place, with no first-round picks changing hands and no names bigger than Danny Granger, Spencer Hawes, and Evan Turner changing hands. 

On the eve of the season, though, Emeka Okafor was swapped for Marcin Gortat and pieces, and in early December the Raptors shipped Rudy Gay to Sacramento. As the new year passed, Luol Deng was dealt. The deadline was quiet, but the market was active.

This year should prove quiet throughout, and the bet here is that no big names swap uniforms. The primary reason is uncertainty. Without knowing how the salary cap is going to change in 2015 and 2016, teams are stuck operating with a short-term perspective in mind. Similarly, draft picks, which have been traded with less and less frequency in recent years, are now assets of indeterminate value - if the cap goes up, rookie-scale deals are substantially more valuable, and potential changes to the lottery format make pick protections difficult to navigate.

It's still possible a team panics and makes a splash (looking at you, Sacramento), but the waters are simply too murky to navigate right now to expect a major deal to go down.

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