What's up Tonight in the NBA: History suggests pair of Game 3s will be pivotal
The Cleveland Cavaliers and Houston Rockets both surrendered home-court advantage in their respective conference semifinals, dropping a game to the Chicago Bulls and Los Angeles Clippers, respectively.
While hitting the road tied at one game apiece is hardly a death knell, it does put additional pressure on the visiting teams in Games 3 and 4, where they'll need to take home court back by winning a road game and make their series a best-of-three from there.
| Game | Series | Time | Network |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland @ Chicago | Tied 1-1 | 8 p.m. E.T. | ESPN |
| Houston @ L.A. Clippers | Tied 1-1 | 10:30 p.m. E.T. | ESPN |
Here's what you need to know before tipoff:
History favors Game 3 winner
In series that stand at 1-1, Game 3s have been pivotal throughout history.
Through the 2014 season, 81.8 percent of teams that have a 2-1 series lead go on to win the series, and that number jumps to 88.9 percent if it's the stronger seed taking that lead. Series road teams – the Bulls and Clippers, in this case – steal a series 67 percent of the time when they can go up 2-1.
In other words, based on historical precedent, these teams will see a 58.9-percent swing in their chances of winning the series. The exact odds change based on the specifics of each particular series, but the enormity of Friday night's games is clear.
Bulls need to neutralize Thompson
In a series with LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler, picking Tristan Thompson as an X-factor would have been a bold call. But without Kevin Love, the impending restricted free agent has taken on a paramount role in the series.
After helping boost the team at both ends in Game 1 – the Cavs were a plus-4 during his 37 minutes in the 99-92 loss – Thompson was elevated to the starting lineup for Game 2, a move that paid huge dividends for Cleveland. The new Cavs starting lineup has been a plus-19 in 13 minutes together in the series, and even if Iman Shumpert can't play in Game 3, the Thompson-Timofey Mozgov pairing appears to be a nice counter to the Bulls' substantial frontcourt.
| Cavs Bigs | Reb% | O-Rtg | D-Rtg | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thompson/no Mozgov | 53.1% | 107.9 | 104.7 | 3.2 |
| Thompson/Mozgov | 57.9% | 125.8 | 92.5 | 33.3 |
| No Thompson | 40.0% | 106.3 | 142.0 | -35.7 |
Thompson has feasted on Pau Gasol in particular, and the Bulls may need to consider playing him fewer minutes, especially alongside Taj Gibson.
When on the floor together in this series, Tristan Thompson has out rebounded Pau Gasol 16-8 (7 Oreb for TT, 3 for Pau). (@ZachLowe_NBA )
— Blake Murphy (@BlakeMurphyODC) May 7, 2015
"My role hasn't changed all season," Thompson said after Game 2.
But it has grown in importance.
Have the Rockets squandered their chance?
They had two games against the Clippers without having to deal with Chris Paul. An opponent really can't ask for more than that, but the Rockets created more doubt than certainty over those 96 minutes, losing one home game and barely escaping the other.
If the Rockets can hardly survive at home against a Point Pagan (Point God-less, you see) Clippers squad, getting outscored by 10 points on aggregate, do they have much of a chance if Paul returns at home for Game 3?
L.A. was 20.9 points per-100 possessions better with Paul on the floor this season. What's more, the Clippers outscored the Rockets by 8.8 points per-100 possessions with Paul on the court in their four regular-season meetings, with Paul averaging 16.8 points and 9.5 assists.
Houston may have made some adjustments on Blake Griffin, but they don't have the defensive manpower to handle a Paul-led Clippers offense. They had a chance to make that a moot point by holding serve at home, forcing the Clippers to win four-of-five, but they failed. There may be no more gifts, and no more opportunities.