FiveThirtyEight draft model sees Dakari Johnson as incredibly underrated
There's a lot to be said for floor.
The draft is almost always about upside, swinging for the fences, and landing the player with the best ceiling. Elite talent moves the needle to such a drastic degree that it's worthwhile to pass up a safer player in hopes of landing a potential star, even if the chances at success are slimmer.
Many teams, especially those with early picks, will draft what they perceive to be the best talent available. Others will use a tier system, drafting for need within a recognized class of talent. Still, others will draft for fit and eschew upside.
That last strategy becomes more reasonable as the draft wears on. Teams picking later in the first round are ostensibly playoff teams, ones who don't need a large infusion of talent and would instead be best-served by a capable rotation piece, even one with a limited ceiling.
And that's how Dakari Johnson pops up as the No. 6 NCAA prospect in the draft according to data analysis site FiveThirtyEight.
While other analytic models haven't thought much of Johnson, who's projected to be a bubble-first-round pick, good or bad, FiveThirtyEight's likes Johnson because he has a low-bust potential. While they evaluate that he has almost no chance of becoming a superstar, he has a great chance of being a role player or even a starter.
This doesn't necessarily mean that Johnson is undervalued, with ESPN ranking him No. 32 and DraftExpress far more pessimistic in ranking him 45th. Instead, it speaks to the uniqueness of prospects and team needs. Johnson does little for a rebuilding team in need of a big win, but his combination of size, strength, and NBA-readiness make him a potential target for contending teams.
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