Jazz capable of playoff push without Dante Exum
After posting a 19-10 record after the All-Star break last season, the Utah Jazz quickly gained traction as a sleeper pick to make the playoffs.
Powered by a stifling defense that allowed just 94.8 points per 100 possessions after the break, and a host of promising young players, the Jazz were seen as a team on the cusp of a meteoric rise.
That's why Dante Exum's torn ACL dealt a double-blow to Jazz fans. Not only is their prized prospect missing a season of development, losing Exum cut into the team's paper-thin depth at point guard, undercutting its playoff odds.
But losing Exum isn't necessarily a death knell for Utah's postseason chances. Even without Exum, the Jazz have what it takes to make a run.
The defense remains intact
There's no question that Exum is a better defender than fill-in starter Trey Burke - it's just a matter of physics. Exum is larger, more athletic, and can check multiple positions.
Measurement | Burke | Exum |
---|---|---|
Height | 6-feet | 6-foot-6 |
Wingspan | 6-foot-5 | 6-foot-10 |
Defensive RPM | -2.52 | -0.13 |
But Utah's defense wasn't built on Exum. The Jazz stifled opponents a year ago by funneling action toward the "French Rejection" Rudy Gobert. And while Exum was better at denying penetration and contesting shots, Burke fared just fine. With Gobert protecting the paint, it didn't really matter who was at the point of attack.
Lineup | Defensive Rating | NBA Rank |
---|---|---|
Exum-Gobert | 98.0 | 1 |
Burke-Gobert | 99.7 | 4 |
Inevitably, there will be a slight downgrade on defense. Burke is small and prone to mental lapses. But as long as Gobert continues to dominate, the basis of Utah's success - being an all-consuming defense - remains intact.
Burke is an upgrade on offense
It's no great secret that Burke has been a disappointment since being selected ninth overall in 2013. His per-game averages (12.8 points, five assists) are decent, but his efficiency numbers are ghastly. Burke has never once shot over 40 percent from the field despite a career 22.9 usage rate.
That being said, Burke is still an upgrade on offense over Exum.
Utah's offense performed better with Burke leading the charge. Granted, the difference was marginal, but Burke proved he was capable of running the ship.
Player | Offensive Rating |
---|---|
Dante Exum | 102.3 |
Trey Burke | 102.9 |
It also helps that Utah's offense isn't wholly reliant on point guard play. Exum would often initiate the offense, but he only scored 4.8 points per game and 55.1 percent of his shots came on spot-up opportunities. Exum mostly deferred to his teammates before camping out for an open look.
(Courtesy: NBA Leaguepass)
Burke's biggest problem last season was his propensity to take over, which ultimately led head coach Quin Snyder to promote Exum in his place. Burke loved to create off the dribble, but he was far more effective playing within the system, as Exum dutifully did. Granted, Burke is a more polished offensive player, but he'd be wise to trade volume for efficiency.
For starters, he should stop jacking up shots off the dribble.
Action | 3PT% | Frequency |
---|---|---|
Pull-up | 18.6 | 37.3 |
Spot-up | 35.4 | 32.9 |
If Burke can stay within himself, replacing Exum should translate to better outcomes for the Jazz on offense.
Help is on the way
Burke isn't the only option. The Jazz also signed 23-year-old Raul Neto to serve as a backup. The Brazilian native flashed a capable NBA skill set in the FIBA World Cup last summer.
Neto projects as a creative passer with an iffy jump shot. He should slot in as a capable backup, or serve as a secondary ball-handler next to Gordon Hayward.
The Jazz will also have a healthy Alec Burks next season. Burks is a talented slashing two-guard who can stretch the floor and handle the ball. His skills should further lessen the impact at point guard.
Finally, if the Jazz are serious about making a playoff push, they have the assets necessary to grab a rental. The Jazz own two future first-rounders and seven second-round picks to deal, in addition to a few promising prospects already on the roster.
Altogether, losing Exum is an upsetting blow and it dampens Utah's fervent playoff hopes. But a postseason push is still very much a possibility for a team on the rise in Utah.