Michael Kidd-Gilchrist's injury deals the Hornets a crippling blow
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Few things are more dispiriting in sports than a season that gets torpedoed before it has a chance to get off the ground. With news that Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has a torn labrum and is expected to miss six months (virtually the entire regular season), that may be the reality facing the Charlotte Hornets.
This summer, following a highly anticipated season that ultimately fell to pieces, the Hornets stubbornly stuck to their plan to compete for an Eastern Conference playoff berth. Most notably, they gave up on and dealt last year's No. 9 overall draft pick, Noah Vonleh, for Portland Trail Blazers swingman Nicolas Batum - who will be a free agent at season's end - and then passed up a chance to nab six picks in exchange for the No. 9 slot they used to draft center Frank Kaminsky.
The Hornets spent a long time being very, very bad, so the front office's aversion to a tear-down or multi-year rebuild - especially just a year removed from a turnaround season that saw them reach the postseason for only the second time since basketball returned to Charlotte in 2004 - is understandable. In the end, though, they might not be able to avoid bottoming out anyway. According to ESPN's projection system, the Kidd-Gilchrist injury takes the team's playoff odds from 70 percent to 25 percent.
A 22-year-old with the modest goal of being the greatest defender in NBA history, Kidd-Gilchrist hasn't put up sexy numbers in three seasons since the Hornets drafted him second overall in 2012. But his immense physical gifts alone - his length, speed, athleticism, lateral quicks, anticipation - make him the Hornets' most exciting, and arguably most important player.
Then there's his motor. Kidd-Gilchrist is a born competitor who fights hard on every possession and never gives up on a play. He crashes the boards like a maniac and follows his misses to the rim. He roars back to bust up would-be free points on the break. He's excellent at navigating through screens, and there may be no better wing when it comes to affecting shots from behind or beside his opponent.
The Hornets completely cratered without him on the floor last season, not just on defense but in every imaginable facet of the game. He helped goose the offense with savvy cuts into space, and, thanks to a much-improved jumper (albeit not one he's yet been able to extend to the 3-point line), with mid-range shots ceded by defenses that sagged off him. He single-handedly gave the Hornets something resembling a transition game. And he was a tremendous boon to the team's efforts on the glass. (Their rebound rate with him on the floor would have led the league; without him, it would have ranked 29th.)
| Hornets | O-Rating | D-Rating | Rebound % | Assist % | Fastbreak pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| With MKG | 99.4 | 96.3 | 53.1 | 59 | 6.9 |
| Without MKG | 96.5 | 104.1 | 47.9 | 55.2 | 4.6 |
Small surprise that the Hornets went 27-28 when he played and 6-21 when he sat.
Without him, the defensive end becomes unquestionably the biggest area of concern. Many have been awed and confounded over the past two years at how the Hornets managed to trot out top-10 defenses without starting even an average rim protector and playing the slow-footed, earthbound Al Jefferson big minutes at center. The simplest explanation: MKG Security.
Oftentimes, you'll see capable big-man help defenders negate the mistakes or shortcomings of perimeter players by snuffing out drives, forcing wild shots and turnovers at the rim, or haranguing ballhandlers out past the 3-point line on switches. In the Hornets' case, it's been the inverse; Kidd-Gilchrist has papered over the team's interior defensive deficiencies by preventing opposing wings from penetrating, denying them the chance to even challenge Jefferson or Cody Zeller or Marvin Williams in the paint.
Batum is a more-than-capable wing defender who should mitigate some of the damage, but he's also coming off an injury-marred and inefficient season, and doesn't match Kidd-Gilchrist for speed, strength, or timing. Then there's the matter of where to allocate those vacated minutes on the wing, with none of the options (Jeremy Lamb, P.J. Hairston, Troy Daniels) inspiring much confidence.
The second line of defense hasn't improved, either. The Hornets let Bismack Biyombo, easily their best defensive big, walk in free agency. Kaminsky could well be one of the more polished rookies in his class, but first-year players struggle almost universally on defense, and it's not like Kaminsky's ever been known for his rim protection. Without Kidd-Gilchrist to shield their vulnerabilities, the Hornets could more closely resemble the team that ranked dead last in defensive rating in 2012-13 than the one that finished sixth and ninth, respectively, the last two seasons.
Worst of all, the injury robs one of the game's bright young stars of another crucial season of development. Kidd-Gilchrist may never be a complete enough offensive player to be the franchise anchor Charlotte envisioned, but he improved across the board last season, and every sign pointed to continued progress.
Six months on the shelf doesn't preclude that progress, but it does make relevancy seem that much further away for the beleaguered Hornets, and losing out on an All-Defensive-caliber performance will only make the win-now directive of their offseason ring all the more ineffectual.